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Following the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei connected Saturday (March 2, 2026), galore elder U.S. officials stay sceptical that the U.S. and Israeli subject cognition against the Islamic Republic volition pb to authorities change successful the adjacent term.
Before and aft the commencement of the attack, U.S. officials, including U.S. President Donald Trump, had suggested that toppling the nation's repressive governing strategy was 1 of respective U.S. goals, successful summation to crippling Iran's ballistic rocket and atomic programs.
"I telephone upon each Iranian patriots who yearn for state to prehend this moment, and instrumentality backmost your country," Mr. Trump said connected Sunday (March 2, 2026) successful a video posted connected Truth Social.
But 3 U.S. officials acquainted with U.S. quality said determination is superior scepticism that Iran's battered absorption tin topple the theocratic, authoritarian governing strategy that has been successful spot since 1979.
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No officials consulted by Reuters wholly ruled retired the anticipation of the autumn of Iran's government, which presently is buffeted by cardinal unit losses from ongoing U.S. and Israeli aerial strikes and is profoundly unpopular pursuing a January circular of extraordinarily convulsive repression.
But it is acold from apt or even probable successful the adjacent term, they said. Reuters reported earlier that Central Intelligence Agency assessments presented to the White House in the weeks earlier the Iran onslaught concluded that if Khamenei was killed, helium could beryllium replaced by hard-line figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps oregon arsenic hard-line clerics, 2 sources said.
One U.S. authoritative with cognition of interior White House deliberations said IRGC officials are improbable to voluntarily capitulate successful portion due to the fact that they person benefited from a immense patronage web designed to support interior loyalty.
The CIA assessments followed astatine slightest 1 study from a abstracted U.S. quality bureau which noted that determination had been nary IRGC defections during a monolithic circular of anti-government protests successful January that was met with brutal unit by Iranian information forces.
Such defections would apt beryllium a precondition of immoderate palmy revolution, according to 3 further sources. Those sources requested that the circumstantial quality bureau not beryllium named.
All of the sources Reuters spoke with for this communicative requested anonymity erstwhile discussing quality assessments. Mr. Trump himself said connected Sunday (March 1) helium planned to reopen communications with Iran, suggesting Washington does not spot the authorities going anywhere, astatine slightest successful the contiguous term.
The White House did not instantly respond to a petition for comment, portion the CIA declined to comment.
Lots of debate, little consensus
On Sunday (March 1), Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said a enactment assembly comprising himself, the caput of the judiciary, and a subordinate of the almighty Guardian Council had temporarily assumed the duties of the Supreme Leader.
Security main Ali Larijani accused the United States and Israel of trying to plunder and disintegrate Iran and warned "secessionist groups" of a harsh effect if they attempted immoderate action, authorities tv said connected Sunday (March 2), aft the 2 countries launched a question of aerial attacks connected Iran that included the bombing of a girls' superior school. Reuters could not independently corroborate the reports from the authorities media.
The U.S. quality discussions astir the implications of a imaginable Khamenei sidesplitting person not been constricted to whether it mightiness pb to a alteration successful authorities leadership.
Two of the U.S. officials said that, since January, determination has been important statement — but nary statement — among officials of assorted agencies astir the grade to which Khamenei's sidesplitting would pb to a important displacement successful the mode Iran approached negotiations with the U.S. regarding its atomic program.
U.S. officials person besides debated the grade to which Khamenei's decease oregon ouster would deter the state from rebuilding its missile oregon atomic facilities and capacities, said those officials, who requested anonymity to sermon delicate interior conversations.
Following the January protests, Steve Witkoff, Mr. Trump's peculiar envoy and a cardinal ally, spoke respective times with Iranian absorption fig Reza Pahlavi, the exiled lad of Iran's past shah, raising questions astir the grade to which the medication would enactment his installment should Iran's authorities fall, 2 officials said.
But successful caller weeks, elder U.S. officials person go progressively pessimistic that immoderate absorption fig backed by Washington would realistically beryllium capable to power the country, those officials added.
"At the extremity of the day, erstwhile U.S. and Israeli strikes stop, if the Iranian radical travel out, their occurrence successful promoting the extremity of the authorities volition beryllium connected the fertile and record lasting speech oregon aligning with them," said Jonathan Panikoff, a erstwhile high-ranking U.S. quality authoritative who is present astatine the Atlantic Council deliberation vessel in Washington. "Otherwise, the remnants of the regime, those with the weapons, are apt to usage them to support power."
