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China’s expanding counter-space capabilities are a origin for concern. While nary struggle has ever been fought successful space, the inducement to power activities connected world by controlling outer abstraction remains a imaginable trigger for aboriginal confrontation. Beijing’s improvement of anti-satellite missiles and co-orbital systems blurs the enactment betwixt regular abstraction operations and counter-space activities.
The cardinal question is however Beijing views its abstraction ambitions and power of outer space, and what India tin bash to safeguard its captious interests successful this domain.
Beijing’s abstraction ambitions
While the Chinese abstraction programme emphasises the peaceful usage of space, grounds suggests that China is preparing for an orbital war.
In January 2007, it targeted its ain outer from earth. In October 2015, China tested an exo-atmospheric conveyance designed to onslaught a hostile satellite. In 2022, China utilized a robotic spacecraft to propulsion a defunct outer into the graveyard orbit. In 2024, it demonstrated an orbital dog-fight. There is simply a wide probe and developmental propulsion for fielding violative capabilities successful space.
China’s abstraction ambitions run astatine 2 levels. First, it seeks to stay competitory successful the emerging abstraction race, some technologically and numerically. China has astir 1,900 satellites successful orbit, compared to much than 8,000 American satellites, including the SpaceX satellites.
Second, it recognises the subject and economical implications of the weaponisation of space. A azygous onslaught could disrupt communications, powerfulness grids, navigation systems, fiscal markets, and subject command-and-control (C2) and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) networks.
Accordingly, China aims to onshore connected the satellite by 2036, motorboat a nuclear-powered shuttle by 2040, and found a star powerfulness strategy by 2050. Chinese start-ups specified arsenic LandSpace, iSpace and OneSpace are challenging rivals specified arsenic SpaceX and Blue Origin. China is besides exploring lunar and asteroid mining for vigor and captious minerals. The increasing request for energy-efficient information centres is apt to further intensify the abstraction race.
China is seeking to asseverate power implicit outer abstraction successful 2 chiseled ways. First, by leveraging space-based assets to safeguard its subject and economical systems. Second, by competing with its rivals — some numerically and technologically — to support abstraction superiority. Its astir contiguous contention is with Starlink successful low-earth orbit (LEO). China plans to deploy much than 36,000 LEO satellites by 2030. This rivalry could intensify if China were to go the archetypal to found a beingness connected the acold broadside of the satellite oregon show a peculiar involvement successful exploiting asteroid resources. Such developments could make an escalatory dynamic successful an situation that lacks a broad regulatory framework.
Consequently, China’s capabilities are evolving successful 3 cardinal areas. First, kinetic onslaught systems specified arsenic the DN-3 and SC-19 missiles, which tin physically destruct satellites. Second, laser-based systems that tin dazzle oregon unsighted satellites, disrupting navigation and communications. Third, co-orbital satellites, specified arsenic the SJ and TJS series, designed to interfere with oregon dislodge different satellites from orbit. Together, these capabilities could alteration the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to cripple Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR), GPS and connection networks, shaping the battlespace during the archetypal 24 to 48 hours of a conflict.
Implications for India
If a contingency arises successful Taiwan, the PLA is apt to archetypal unsighted ISR and connection networks earlier resorting to hard-kill attacks. This would springiness Beijing clip to signifier the narrative, whereas a hard termination could trigger contiguous escalation.
The U.S. would past person to measure China’s subject objectives, and, if an penetration proceeds, neutralise its counter-space capabilities. While some sides whitethorn suffer assets, the U.S. would apt clasp an vantage owed to its greater redundancy and resilience. The Taiwan script applies to India albeit connected a lesser scale. India has astir 60 operational satellites arsenic against 400-plus Chinese subject satellites alone, which implies lesser redundancy. Losing 5 to six satellites volition wounded India more.
Hypothetically, China could onslaught astatine the CARTOSAT/RISAT series, which could pb to nonaccomplishment of tactical-level imagery for hours, if not days. Instead, if it lone take to lase arsenic these satellites arsenic they walk implicit the Line of Actual Control, it could pb to impermanent unsighted spots. They could adjacent deploy jammers to disable India’s NavIC system.
The cardinal strategical takeaway is that portion China tin behaviour peacetime harassment utilizing lasers and jammers, oregon temporarily unsighted a fewer satellites during a borderline crisis, it cannot inflict crippling harm without destroying a ample fig of Indian satellites and risking terrible Kessler Syndrome consequences. While Mission Shakti has strengthened India’s deterrence posture, its inferior remains restricted. Moreover, a azygous palmy trial does not warrant operational reliability, and India inactive lacks co-orbital capabilities to antagonistic satellites specified arsenic the SJ and TJS series.
Safeguarding India’s interests
A fewer measures are pertinent. First, India indispensable grow its abstraction manufacture beyond the Indian Space Research Organisation to summation outer accumulation and motorboat capacity. Greater capableness translates into greater redundancy. Second, it should disaggregate ample outer programmes, specified arsenic GSAT, into smaller constellations, which are much resilient and survivable. Third, India indispensable fortify the extortion of its crushed abstraction assets to mitigate the interaction of hard-kill attacks. Fourth, it should heighten data-sharing arrangements with strategical partners truthful that, successful the lawsuit of outer losses, captious services tin beryllium restored done commercialized oregon spouse networks wrong hours.
Besides, India should besides intelligibly specify its reddish lines and the scope of a proportionate effect to guarantee that China afloat understands the imaginable escalation ladder.
Harinder Singh is simply a erstwhile corps commander
