6 days ago
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The ongoing warfare successful Iran has shattered galore myths and brought to airy realities that exposure the structural vulnerabilities of the existing satellite order. Iran, which was nary lucifer for the combined subject mightiness and technological superiority of Israel and the United States, has not lone withstood the subject onslaught but has besides retaliated successful ways that were neither expected nor planned for. Nearly 3 months into the conflict, though a fragile ceasefire is holding, determination appears to beryllium nary contiguous solution to extremity the warfare oregon execute the politico-military objectives that Israel and the U.S. acceptable astatine its outset. While Iran has suffered large losses to its leadership, infrastructure and subject assets, the American subject has besides incurred unprecedented losses.
Lessons from the Iran conflict
A caller U.S. Congressional Research Service study has noted that 42 U.S. craft person been mislaid oregon damaged truthful acold during “Operation Epic Fury” — the warfare with Iran — which includes 5th procreation stealth fighters specified arsenic the F-35. Plus, the quality to intercept Iranian missiles and drones has been severely degraded arsenic much than fractional the full inventory of Patriot, Tomahawk and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missiles person been expended. With much than 240 American targets reportedly deed by Iran, the struggle has shattered the story that subject superiority unsocial volition warrant an outright victory. Several of the asymmetric tactics employed by Iran person caught the U.S. and Israel connected the backmost foot.
Another world cheque underscored by this warfare is the captious value of planetary choke points and however their blockade tin severely disrupt the planetary economy. Iran, by imposing a blockade connected the Strait of Hormuz aboriginal successful the conflict, has virtually brought the planetary system to its knees. Nearly 20 cardinal barrels of crude oil, accounting for astir a 3rd of planetary lipid supplies, walk done this constrictive oversea transition each day. India is among the countries astir affected, arsenic it imports astir 88% of its crude lipid requirements, amounting to astir 1.8 cardinal barrels annually. While the satellite grapples with the blockade and works to diversify its vigor sources, 1 happening is clear: determination is an urgent request to research and make alternate connectivity options beyond existing commercialized routes, peculiarly maritime routes. New routes and corridors indispensable beryllium developed that debar the 2 ‘C’s — struggle zones and choke points.
However, this realisation is neither caller nor person countries been idle successful pursuing solutions. Transnational connectivity projects specified arsenic the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) were conceived precisely for this purpose. The INSTC was designed to bypass the Suez Canal choke point, portion the overland constituent of the BRI crossed Asia and Europe seeks to trim dependence connected some the Malacca Strait and the Suez Canal. Another large connectivity task is the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). Unlike the different initiatives, IMEC traverses parts of West Asia, a portion that has been importantly affected by the existent conflict.
The IMEC framework
What is IMEC? The IMEC is simply a transformative and ambitious connectivity inaugural that was officially announced astatine the G-20 Summit successful New Delhi successful September 2023. It seeks to link India with Europe crossed the Arabian Peninsula, bypassing the accepted choke constituent of the Suez Canal. The task envisions a multimodal economical corridor integrating railways, ports, highways, vigor networks and integer infrastructure to heighten trade, concern and connectivity. Unlike accepted transport corridors, IMEC is conceived arsenic a holistic and multidimensional infrastructure task encompassing oversea routes, obstruction networks, pipelines, undersea high-speed information links, greenish hydrogen corridors and transnational vigor transmission grids.
The projected operation has 3 chiseled sections. The eastbound conception links India with West Asia done sealinks to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The cardinal conception consists of an overland way crossed West Asia, traversing the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel, and culminating astatine the larboard of Haifa connected Israel’s Mediterranean coast. The occidental limb of the corridor is sea-based, connecting Haifa to assorted European ports, beyond which the continent’s extended proscription web takes over.
What has happened owed to the war? Soon aft IMEC was announced, the warfare successful Gaza broke retired connected October 7, 2023, placing the task connected the backmost burner. Major areas of the primitively envisioned corridor, peculiarly those involving Israel and the larboard of Haifa, were straight affected by the conflict.
Soon aft the Iran-Israel ‘12-Day War’ successful June 2025, determination was a concerted effort to determination the task forward. However, the ongoing struggle involving Iran has erstwhile again thrown a spanner into its execution. Key ports successful the UAE, peculiarly Jebel Ali and Fujairah, person been repeatedly targeted by Iran, portion disruptions successful the Strait of Hormuz person exposed the geographical vulnerabilities of these ports.
Another captious responsibility enactment exposed by the warfare is the heavy faultlines and divergence successful the positions adopted by Saudi Arabia and the UAE successful the war. Both countries are cardinal partners successful IMEC, and immoderate adversarial posture betwixt them could beryllium to beryllium a large setback for the corridor, whose occurrence depends connected creaseless coordination and seamless connectivity crossed the region. The UAE’s April 2026 announcement that it was opting retired of the planetary lipid grouping, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and reports of its increasing strategical coordination with Israel, including the deployment of Israeli defence systems specified arsenic the Iron Beam, hazard widening differences betwixt Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Such developments are improbable to augur good for either determination stableness oregon the aboriginal of IMEC.
Navigating the challenges
The warfare successful Iran has highlighted 2 important issues for some West Asia and IMEC. First, determination is an urgent request for projects specified arsenic IMEC that tin bypass struggle zones and choke points. However, for specified initiatives to succeed, they indispensable besides navigate the region’s geopolitical complexities, including the rapidly evolving dynamics among cardinal partners specified arsenic Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
To code the archetypal challenge, IMEC indispensable germinate into a broader and much flexible model portion keeping unfastened the anticipation of reverting to the primitively envisioned alignment erstwhile the struggle subsides. To this end, the enactment of processing cardinal ports successful Oman — specified arsenic Salalah, Duqm and Muscat — arsenic eastbound introduction points could beryllium explored, arsenic they are located good distant from the conflict-prone Strait of Hormuz. Similarly, connected the occidental end, until the larboard of Haifa becomes a unafraid transit hub, a occidental spur passing done Egypt and terminating astatine 1 of its large Mediterranean ports could connection a viable alternative. Egypt already possesses the logistics ecosystem required to enactment IMEC, including the Suez Canal Economic Zone, six operational ports and 4 concern zones specialising successful greenish hydrogen, liquefied earthy gas, shipbuilding and different future-oriented sectors.
To code the 2nd challenge, countries specified arsenic India, which bask adjacent relations and the spot of some Saudi Arabia and the UAE, volition person to navigate a delicate but captious diplomatic terrain. European countries specified arsenic Italy and France, which are positioning themselves arsenic cardinal champions of IMEC successful Europe, volition besides request to play an progressive role. The increasing designation of IMEC’s strategical value was evident during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s sojourn to Europe successful May 2026. While elevating their bilateral ties to a Special Strategic Partnership, India and Italy reaffirmed their committedness to cooperate connected IMEC, recognising its transformative imaginable to reshape and beforehand planetary trade, connectivity and prosperity.
The bottommost enactment is clear. The warfare successful Iran has underscored the request for transnational connectivity projects specified arsenic IMEC that tin bypass struggle zones and strategical choke points. However, for specified initiatives to succeed, they indispensable flooded the geopolitical complexities successful West Asia.
Rajeev Agarwal is simply a retired colonel, a Senior Research Consultant astatine CRF, Delhi, and the writer of Between Tehran and Tel Aviv – Gaza’s Story of Unending War
