A targeting in the name of demography

India is connected the cusp of a demographic upheaval. Fertility rates crossed the state person been falling for decades and are present connected oregon beneath replacement levels. We volition soon person to displacement from the challenges of uncovering jobs for the younker bulge to preparing to attraction for an ageing population.

You would not deliberation truthful looking astatine the Terms of Reference (ToRs) of the High-Level Committee connected Demographic Change that the authorities constituted astatine the extremity of May. The ToRs are peppered with the request to code “illegal immigration” and borderline management. Home Minister Amit Shah said connected the societal media tract X portion announcing the enactment of the committee that “Illegal infiltration and different reasons starring to Unnatural Demographic Change is simply a precise large situation for the contiguous and aboriginal of immoderate nation.” It is nary wonderment that the committee does not person a azygous demographer to usher its work. Its chairperson is simply a retired Supreme Court of India judge; it has a retired IAS serviceman and a retired IPS officer, the Census Commissioner and an economist.

The infiltration communicative expands

Using beardown words astir “infiltrators”, the Prime Minister had announced the request for specified a committee from the ramparts of Red Fort connected August 15, 2025. Indeed, this was the culmination of years of gathering a mythology that undocumented (Muslim) migrants from Bangladesh are swamping the districts connected the border, spreading crossed the state and influencing electoral outcomes. It was mode backmost successful 2018 that Amit Shah, past Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) President, said that Bangladeshi migrants were termites. The mythology astir hordes of immigrants has seeped into the citizen’s consciousness and has served good the electoral purposes of the BJP.

It has worked precise good successful Assam during a mates of predetermination cycles, and it was stunningly effectual successful West Bengal during the caller elections wherever the request to woody with “infiltration” was a cardinal diagnostic of the BJP campaign. It is possibly clip present to marque it a nation-wide run aided by the recommendations of the Demographic Change Committee.

Given however the contented has been highlighted and framed, we tin person a just thought of what the recommendations of this committee volition be. It is inactive important to recognize wherefore this has small to bash with demographic challenges and is each astir moving to the adjacent signifier of the “Othering” of India’s minorities, particularly Muslims.

To statesman with, what is the grounds of large-scale undocumented migration from Bangladesh? It is revealing that the lone benignant of authoritative grounds we person truthful acold of “demographic change” (i.e., migration from Bangladesh affecting colonisation size and composition) are observations by the Home Minister of ample increases successful the colonisation of a fewer of the borderline districts. Highlighting specified increases without notation to home migration oregon differential fertility behaviour among communities is not impervious of undocumented immigration. It is instructive that studies that had been done by authoritative agencies showing grounds of demographic alteration successful the borderline districts were removed without explanation, according to a study successful this regular (“Government connection successful 2024 for a sheet connected ‘demographic challenges’ ne'er took off”, August 16, 2025). We tin lone presume that they were deleted due to the fact that they did not basal scrutiny.

This is not astir undocumented migration

For decades determination has so been cross-border migration betwixt India and Bangladesh crossed what is an integrated riverine ecology. But fixed the economical translation that has taken spot successful Bangladesh successful caller decades, it would beryllium hard to reason for economical distress driving large-scale migration from Bangladesh to India. India’s neighbour is nary “basket case” arsenic it was derisively described decades ago.

According to World Bank data, Bangladesh’s per capita income (in nominal dollar terms) grew faster than India during 2005-23 (10.4% versus 7.70% compound yearly maturation rate); it present has astir the aforesaid income arsenic India’s. In purchasing powerfulness parity terms, India’s maturation is somewhat higher. Both countries presently person astir the aforesaid per capita income nevertheless measured, and some present person the aforesaid levels of quality development, according to the UNDP’s Human Development Index. But the alteration successful Bangladesh has been overmuch faster. Why past would determination beryllium migration to India of a standard that determination should beryllium speech of being swamped? There would surely stay pockets of distress forcing the mediocre to see migrating to India and the much skilled to West Asia. But we cannot find economical grounds to suggest waves of Bangladeshis being pushed by distress to migrate to India, ending up affecting jobs and electoral outcomes here.

Of course, each this is not astir undocumented migration. All this is truly a codification for the spot of Muslims successful India and an acceleration of the social, economical and governmental favoritism of this assemblage of Indian citizens that has taken spot implicit the past 12 years. And present the authorities has fixed a much unsafe diktat to the committee. Item (iv) reads “to analyse structural colonisation changes astatine the level of spiritual oregon societal communities, peculiarly wherever they deviate from broader trends”. This successful peculiar is astir the fertility behaviour of Muslims and “where they deviate from broader trends”.

For a period now, the Hindutva run has whipped up fears of Muslims overtaking Hindus successful population.

This is present firmly impregnated successful the minds of Hindus of each ages, classes, castes and regions. It is to beryllium recovered successful mundane societal conversations, connected societal media of course, and it is expressed successful little than thinly veiled presumption during electoral campaigns.

When facts are ignored

It is tiresome to repetition the facts, but 1 has to, adjacent erstwhile confronted by a partition of disinformation and prejudice. Yes, the stock of Muslims successful India’s colonisation has risen from 10% successful 1951 to 14% successful 2011, astatine the clip of the past Census. Yes, successful the past, the Muslim assemblage connected a full has shown a higher fertility than the Hindus and different spiritual denominations. This has been connected relationship of its poorer economical status, little acquisition of women and possibly adjacent spiritual beliefs. However, fertility among Muslim women has begun falling rapidly, with the effect that the spread betwixt Muslims and Hindus has narrowed and volition soon disappear. On the desired fig of children that women privation to have, determination is present astir nary quality betwixt Hindus and Muslims. So overmuch for Muslims present having much children than Hindus. And to repetition what is well-known, the champion illustration of wherefore religion is not the determinant of fertility behaviour: Muslim women successful Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Jammu and Kashmir grounds little fertility than the Hindu women of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Poverty and acquisition substance more. This is the deviation that needs to beryllium addressed, not fertility behaviour according to religion.

To talk past astir Muslim fertility “deviating from wide trends”, arsenic 1 of the ToRs of the committee indicates, is to disregard the facts connected the crushed and autumn backmost connected acquainted tropes astir the behaviour of this minority, giving authoritative validation of age-old misinformation.

We cannot flight from the realisation that this committee is being asked to urge steps to people minorities nether the screen of checking undocumented migration. After all, we person already go an inhumane nine where, according to reliable reports, authorities agencies person flown Rohingya refugees from Delhi to the Andamans and past pushed them into the oversea with beingness jackets. So erstwhile the Demographic Change Committee is asked “to urge a streamlined and imperishable operational mechanics for the legal, fair, and time-bound identification, detention, and deportation of amerciable immigrants already residing successful the country”, determination is simply a chilling similarity betwixt the connection of this “permanent operational mechanism” and the “Final Solution” practised successful 1940s Europe.

We should not accidental we person not been forewarned.

C. Rammanohar Reddy is simply a writer based successful Hyderabad