2 days ago
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For astir fractional a century, relations betwixt Iran and the United States person oscillated betwixt overt hostility and situation management. Periods of confrontation were punctuated by little diplomatic openings, lone to beryllium followed by renewed distrust and, much recently, warfare and devastation.
In this discourse the existent determination towards a memorandum that could pb to an indefinite ceasefire and bargain clip to code the thornier issues bedevilling their narration appears to beryllium a important step. However, adjacent agreeing connected a model to participate into substantive negotiations has been acold much hard than anticipated acknowledgment to vastly antithetic expectations of the 2 sides.
The outgo of conflict
What motivated Washington and Tehran to participate superior negotiations is the precocious outgo successful governmental and economical presumption for some of renewed agelong drawn-out hostilities.
The U.S. attacked Iran successful cohort with Israel believing that the harm inflicted by superior subject unit would compel Tehran to judge cardinal constraints connected its atomic and rocket programmes. Iran assumed that strategical resilience, determination networks, and its capableness to endanger vigor flows would enforce unbearable costs connected its adversaries.
Neither broadside afloat obtained its objective. Iran suffered terrible harm to parts of its subject infrastructure and further economical deterioration. However, it retained capable capabilities to proceed imposing costs done asymmetric means specified arsenic closing the Strait of Hormuz, attacking America’s allies successful the Gulf and threatening continued instability successful the portion done its proxies. The information of a prolonged struggle affecting shipping routes and vigor markets created home and planetary pressures connected Washington for de-escalation.
There is, therefore, an antithetic convergence of interests that has motivated some to look for ways to bring hostilities to an end. Memoranda are easier to motion than bid agreements. They are often signed precisely due to the fact that they defer pugnacious decisions. However, successful this case, adjacent signing a memorandum appears elusive due to the fact that of the wide spread betwixt the 2 sides.
Hurdles to lasting peace
Several obstacles basal successful the mode of transforming the projected U.S.-Iran memorandum adjacent if it is signed into a lasting bid agreement. The archetypal concerns communal distrust. Decades of confrontation person created heavy suspicions. Iranian leaders stay convinced that Washington yet seeks authorities alteration and volition usage negotiations arsenic a ruse for launching attacks arsenic it did successful June 2025 and February 2026. U.S. President Donald Trump’s wont of blowing blistery and acold further complicates the problem. American policymakers proceed to fishy that Tehran uses negotiations chiefly to bargain time, sphere its atomic option, and rebuild its rocket and different transportation capabilities.
Second, immoderate statement volition look absorption successful some countries. In Washington, critics are already informing against repeating what they see the perceived weaknesses of the 2015 atomic agreement. In Tehran, hard-line factions, including galore successful the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), volition represent compromises arsenic surrender nether pressure.
The 3rd and possibly astir superior obstacle involves determination actors, particularly Israel. Israel has consistently viewed Iran’s rocket and atomic capabilities arsenic the top menace to its aspiration for determination dominance. Israeli information reasoning has historically favoured preventive measures that are designed to guarantee that adversaries bash not get capabilities that endanger its subject superiority. In the lawsuit of Iran, this interest centres connected preserving Israeli monopoly of atomic weapons successful West Asia.
Israel request not reason bid directly. It whitethorn alternatively question to signifier its presumption successful ways that marque implementation impossible. Israeli subject actions, specified arsenic its existent penetration of Lebanon which has been expanding successful scope and inflicting dense damage, oregon covert operations, specified arsenic sidesplitting Iranian atomic scientists, could perchance disrupt diplomatic momentum and yet subvert the thought of a bid agreement.
This information is peculiarly acute due to the fact that Israeli and American priorities bash not ever perfectly coincide. Washington whitethorn progressively worth stableness and de-escalation, whereas Israel whitethorn spot greater accent connected eliminating perceived semipermanent threats adjacent if it entails derailing a bid statement betwixt Iran and the U.S. and greater determination instability.
Hardliners successful the seat
On the Iranian side, the main acquisition that the authorities indispensable person learned from the U.S.-Israeli onslaught is that atomic ambiguity does not guarantee information portion atomic weapons do. The illustration of North Korea is ample impervious of the verity of this conclusion.
Moreover, each indications constituent to the information that the centre of powerfulness wrong Iran has shifted decisively successful favour of hardliners successful the IRGC who volition telephone the shots careless of the veneer adopted by the authorities for tactical purposes.
Tehran may, therefore, prosecute successful agelong drawn-out negotiations astir the atomic contented but is improbable to springiness up the weapons option. The aspiration whitethorn prevarication dormant for a play but is improbable to disappear. Iran volition springiness up this enactment lone if a nuclear-weapon-free portion is created successful West Asia that includes Israel, an eventuality unacceptable to Israel.
In short, portion the memorandum whitethorn beryllium signed successful the coming days, arsenic it is indispensable to supply Mr. Trump with an off-ramp from an unpopular war, the prospects of it translating into a lasting bid stay minimal. That would necessitate a cardinal alteration of cognition successful some Washington and Tehran. There are nary signs that specified a translation is connected the cards soon.
Mohammed Ayoob is University Distinguished Professor Emeritus of International Relations, Michigan State University, and writer of The Many Faces of Political Islam (2020)
