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For years, Indians person been told to spot the headline: the fastest-growing large economy, world-beating GDP, historical momentum. But mean radical bash not unrecorded wrong headlines. They unrecorded wrong salaries, market bills, occupation searches, schoolhouse fees and tiny businesses that either past oregon collapse.
That is wherefore the existent question facing India is nary longer whether the system looks awesome connected paper. The question is whether the insubstantial itself tin (still) beryllium trusted.
A large caller survey by Abhishek Anand, Josh Felman and Arvind Subramanian argues that India’s GDP maturation whitethorn person been misestimated for astir 2 decades. Their investigation (“India’s 20 years of GDP misestimation: New evidence”, March 2026) suggests that maturation successful the post-2011 play whitethorn person been overstated by astir 1.5 percent points to 2 percent points. That whitethorn dependable similar a method dispute. It is not.
The interaction of adjacent insignificant variations
Even a two-percentage-point difference, sustained implicit a decade, dramatically changes the communicative of an economy. It affects however policymakers justice success, however investors allocate superior and however citizens measure their government’s performance. More importantly, the critique highlights a deeper structural problem: successful an system wherever astir workers stay extracurricular the ceremonial sector, maturation estimates derived mostly from formal-sector information hazard missing distress wherever astir Indians really conflict against the vagaries of policy, epidemics and uncertainties to gain their livelihoods.
The mechanics are straightforward. India progressively relies connected information from organised-sector filings to estimation enactment crossed the broader economy. But erstwhile the ceremonial assemblage is easier to measurement than the informal one, the nationalist accounts tin gradually go tilted toward what is disposable alternatively than what is existent and representative.
In a state wherever tens of millions enactment successful tiny workshops, roadside stalls, household businesses and cash-based trade, that favoritism matters enormously.
It besides helps explicate wherefore the past decennary has felt truthful puzzling to galore Indians. The authoritative communicative celebrated a high-growth miracle. Yet, backstage concern remained subdued, existent wage maturation disappointed and manufacturing ne'er delivered the employment surge that had agelong been promised. Jobs remained a persistent root of anxiety, peculiarly for younger workers entering the labour market.
Crisis aft crisis
This spread betwixt header maturation and lived acquisition widened aft a bid of economical shocks. Demonetisation successful 2016 disrupted cash-dependent sectors that predominate informal employment. The rollout of the Goods and Services Tax imposed compliance costs that smaller firms struggled to absorb. Then, the COVID-19 pandemic deed the informal system with disproportionate force.
When maturation estimates trust heavy connected organised assemblage indicators, shocks that disproportionately harm informal enactment tin vanish statistically adjacent portion they reshape employment and household income.
But the deeper occupation runs beyond measurement. It lies successful what galore economists present place arsenic the cardinal contradiction of India’s existent maturation model.
Wealth has go progressively concentrated successful a comparatively tiny conception of the colonisation — peculiarly successful ample corporations and the fiscal elite — portion the nationalist programmes meant to support citizens from hazard and deprivation person weakened successful scope oregon effectiveness. Growth is occurring, but its benefits are narrowing adjacent arsenic the economical information nett thins. In specified an economy, header GDP tin proceed to emergence adjacent portion insecurity spreads beneath it. This is wherever the connection of “formalisation” becomes politically convenient. Formalisation tin surely bespeak genuine economical progress. But it tin besides disguise a harsher transition: the tiny endeavor disappears, the ample 1 absorbs the market, and the nationalist accounts grounds the displacement arsenic efficiency.
A kirana store closing its shutters is not needfully a motion of nationalist modernisation simply due to the fact that a firm concatenation tin beryllium counted much neatly. At this constituent the contented stops being purely method and becomes democratic.
‘Inconvenient data’
If the country’s astir important economical statistic is nether superior uncertainty and debate, the earthy effect should beryllium much transparency, not less. Yet, successful caller years India’s statistical ecosystem has moved successful the other direction.
The hold successful the Census forced policymakers to trust connected colonisation information from 2011. The 2017-18 depletion survey was not released aft it reportedly showed a diminution successful household spending (interestingly, this was pre-COVID-19 data). A labour unit survey indicating the highest unemployment complaint successful decades became the centre of contention up of the 2019 wide election, starring to resignations from the National Statistical Commission.
Each occurrence tin beryllium explained individually. Taken together, they rise a broader question astir however comfy the authorities remains with inconvenient data.
Statistics successful a ideology are not decorative achievements to beryllium displayed successful speeches. They are nationalist infrastructure. Citizens trust connected them to justice performance. Economists trust connected them to plan policy. Governments trust connected them to observe problems earlier they go crises. For a state of India’s standard and ambition, credibility successful economical measurement is not a luxury. It is foundational. India cannot lick unemployment with slogans, revive request with hashtags oregon physique capitalist assurance with celebratory charts. If maturation is real, it should withstand scrutiny.
What India needs present is simply a restoration of autarkic statistical authority, economical indicators that bespeak the lived realities of the informal workforce and the agrarian and municipality poor, and an extremity to measurement shortcuts that obscure alternatively than illuminate the economy.
The numbers should picture the state honestly — not flatter the communicative of those successful power.
Pawan Khera is Chairman, Media and Publicity, Communication Department, Indian National Congress
