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The U.S. has mounted its largest subject build-up successful West Asia since the 2003 Iraq invasion. It has deployed 2 craft bearer onslaught groups, dozens of combatant jets and warships, refuelling craft and precocious rocket defence systems. President Donald Trump has said helium would usage unit if Iran fails to scope a deal. Yet helium has besides sent mixed signals astir the intent of the deployment and what precisely Washington wants from Tehran.
Does the U.S. question authorities alteration successful Iran, arsenic it erstwhile did successful Iraq and Afghanistan? Is the existent escalation driven by Iran’s crackdown connected home protests, its atomic programme oregon its rocket development? Mr. Trump has yet to articulate a coherent communicative explaining the objectives of his Iran policy.
Protests successful Iran
On January 2, 2026, instantly aft gathering Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu successful Florida, Mr. Trump said the U.S. was “locked and loaded” to respond if Iran killed protesters. On January 13, aft Iran cracked down connected protests, Mr. Trump asked Iranians to “take implicit institutions” and said that “help is connected the way”. But Mr. Trump did not bid a onslaught connected Iran. He aboriginal claimed that Iran had paused planned executions of protesters. He past sent much violative and antiaircraft weapons to the region.
On January 29, Mr. Trump shifted absorption distant from protests and urged Tehran to travel and negociate a woody connected its atomic programme. This marked a notable turn. In aboriginal January, portion threatening subject enactment against Iran, helium had made nary notation to the atomic issue. In June 2025, aft attacking Iran’s atomic facilities during the 12-day warfare betwixt Iran and Israel, Mr. Trump had claimed that helium had “obliterated” Iran’s atomic programme.
Nuclear diplomacy
Amid tensions and threats, the U.S. and Iran resumed atomic diplomacy connected February 6 successful Muscat, Oman. Steve Witkoff, Mr. Trump’s peculiar envoy for West Asia, met Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister. There were evident disputes astir the model of the talks. Iran said it was acceptable to sermon the atomic programme and unfastened to a “fair and equitable deal”. But Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, said connected February 4, earlier the archetypal circular of talks, that discussions should screen Iran’s rocket and atomic programmes, its enactment for militia groups successful the portion and its attraction of its population. Despite the disagreements, talks went ahead.
On February 22, aft 2 rounds of talks, Mr. Witkoff said successful an interrogation that Mr. Trump had fixed him and Jared Kushner, the President’s son-in-law who is besides portion of the negotiating team, a wide absorption connected what they wanted to achieve. “Zero zero enrichment, we person to get the worldly back.” He was referring to Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities and the stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Mr. Witkoff did not accidental thing astir Iran’s rocket programme oregon its enactment for militias erstwhile helium talked astir Mr. Trump’s reddish lines. He besides said that the President was funny to cognize wherefore Iran “has not capitulated” contempt America’s unit build-up adjacent its shores.
Iranian officials person repeatedly said that they were not readying to marque a atomic bomb, but refused to springiness up their enrichment capabilities oregon enriched uranium. Iran’s rocket programme and its enactment for militias, they say, are non-negotiable.
Deal oregon war?
On February 24, connected the eve of Mr. Trump’s State of the Union Address, Mr. Araghchi confirmed a 3rd circular of talks with the U.S. connected February 26. “Our cardinal convictions are crystal clear: Iran volition nether nary circumstances ever make a atomic weapon,” helium wrote successful a societal media post. “Neither volition Iranians forgo our close to harness the dividends of peaceful atomic exertion for our people,” helium said.
In his State of the Union Address, Mr. Trump did not talk overmuch connected Iran.
He repeated his assertion that the U.S. onslaught had “obliterated Iran’s atomic programme”. The Iranians are starting their atomic programme “all over”, helium added. “They privation to marque a woody but we haven’t heard those concealed words: ‘We volition ne'er person a atomic weapon’.” He slammed Iran’s rocket programme, its enactment for militias and its crackdown connected protesters, but helium did not request immoderate concession astir these issues arsenic portion of a deal. He did not adjacent notation Iran’s enrichment capabilities.
Mr. Trump talked lone astir a atomic weapon. He said helium “will ne'er allow” Iran to person atomic weapons. And the Iranians person repeatedly said that they were not readying to person a atomic bomb. “If the main contented successful the negotiations is Iran not processing atomic weapons, this aligns with #Leader_Fatwa and #Iran_Defensive_Doctrine, and an contiguous statement is wrong reach,” Ali Shamkhani, main of Iran’s recently created Defence Council and a heavyweight successful the system, wrote successful a societal media station connected Thursday, referring to Supreme Leader Khamenei’s fatwa against atomic weapons. “Araghchi has capable enactment and authorization for this deal,” helium added.
