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United States President Donald Trump’s tariff wars against person and foe implicit the past twelvemonth present airy successful examination to the upheaval created by the unprecedented Israeli-American onslaught connected Iran and counterstrikes. For decades, India’s stakes successful a unchangeable and affable Tehran person been immense for vigor security, geopolitical advantage, and abstraction for strategical autonomy. If the Ukraine warfare tested India’s overseas argumentation agility and independence, the Iran warfare is simply a generational challenge. The slew of economical and defence deals that India signed with European countries precocious was popularly seen arsenic a awesome of large geoeconomic and geopolitical displacement successful India’s favour. In this caller West Asian warfare scenario, it is already wide that deals with France and the European Union (EU) hardly springiness India a stronger hand.
Strategic autonomy is difficult
The 114 Rafale combatant pitchy acquisition from France and the India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) pointed to historical achievements. These amazingly speedy denouements (after 20 years of dilatory negotiations connected the FTA and extended talks connected the Rafales since 2016) were mostly rearguard actions against Mr. Trump’s punishing tariffs. But New Delhi and immoderate European countries specified arsenic France seemed to judge they were important steps toward a much distributed multipolar satellite bid against American unilateralism. Washington’s disregard for perchance catastrophic effects from the onslaught connected Iran connected planetary commerce and information are showing that U.S. unipolarity is holding fast.
Until Mr. Trump’s coercive tariffs, New Delhi did not person to interest overmuch astir independency successful economical policymaking. That is due to the fact that dissimilar the station warfare American-led subject bid with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Asian ceremonial pact alliances, Washington’s wide economical bid tended to beryllium unfastened and inclusive, driven mostly by marketplace forces. The treble whammy of economical and subject unilateralism volition present marque it much hard for countries specified arsenic India to workout strategical autonomy.
President Trump is changing the economical strategy successful ways that reflector the exclusivist subject system. The U.S. authorities is progressively demanding a greater alignment of the economical policies of different countries with American strategical interests. This is simply a cardinal interruption from the earlier signifier and it threatens the full post-Second World War wide economical order. New Delhi has been capable to prime and take adjacent economical tie-ups with the U.S. while, astatine the aforesaid time, keeping its region from confederation politics. That had not stopped the U.S. from nurturing commercialized ties with India successful a large mode since 2000. Indeed, the U.S. overtook China arsenic India’s largest trading spouse successful 2021-22. But enactment that China was astatine the apical of India’s economical partners adjacent arsenic U.S.-China relations were sharply declining. All this is to accidental that until precise recently, economical and strategical relations could co-exist on competing trajectories.
For India and the U.S., a convergence of interests astir a rising China had brought their relations to a level that appeared irreversible. Even arsenic this gathering of the minds occurred, India’s diversification of large powerfulness partnerships remained intact. India’s quality to support bully relations simultaneously with the U.S., Russia, China, Iran, Israel, Vietnam, and the large European powers — without taking beardown sides, adjacent nether duress — is the clearest look and workout of strategical autonomy.
Mr. Trump’s arbitrary demands to discontinue crude lipid imports from Russia, forego the strategical concern with Iran connected Chabahar port, desist from adjacent considering a de-dollarise enactment successful BRICS, and intelligibly align with American geoeconomic and geopolitical interests, airs the biggest situation to India’s strategical autonomy successful decades. America’s 30-day waiver for Russian lipid purchases owing to vigor proviso concatenation disruptions came arsenic a little reprieve for India, yet connected presumption acceptable by Washington. It was much than conscionable an embarrassment for India erstwhile a U.S. submarine sank an Iranian naval vessel (IRIS Dena) successful the Indian Ocean that was returning from the Indian Navy’s International Fleet Review 2026 naval workout connected March 4. India’s representation arsenic the cardinal determination naval powerfulness took a large hit.
Deals with Europe person not eliminated risks
India’s FTA with the EU and historical Rafale combat pitchy woody with France are 2 developments that galore interpreted arsenic India trying to negociate the caller autonomy dilemma created by Mr. Trump. New Delhi chose French combatant jets implicit Russian and American jets with the anticipation that it would yet get the exertion transportation and home accumulation it has agelong sought. India is growing, and truthful is its military; it volition support buying, and France is locking itself into a immense commercialized deal.
For India, portion the spending is highly high, it volition not get a amended woody with the U.S.; and it volition not get a amended performing combatant pitchy from Russia. In this geopolitical climate, this woody helps some India and France arsenic they privation to diversify partners and support their strategical autonomy. But determination is immoderate uncertainty astir conscionable however overmuch tech is being transferred and the information that root codes and algorithms volition beryllium nether French control. This means that India volition beryllium wedded to the French for upgrades. This besides could undercut India’s ‘Make successful India’ aspiration.
As for the FTA, we could spot this successful the discourse of Mr. Trump’s economical assaults and a rushed effort to prevention the thought of a wide economical satellite order. But determination are home governmental hurdles successful India to overcome, from farmers and concern workers who are a large electoral chunk. Moreover, France and the EU mightiness beryllium utilizing commerce and commercialized present arsenic a mode to summation leverage implicit India. De-risking from Mr. Trump’s uncertainties done the FTA has evidently not eliminated governmental oregon economical risks.
America’s agelong shadow
What seems the flimsiest ground for strengthening strategical autonomy is the caller thought of a communal cognition of a caller satellite order. Geopolitically speaking, India is overmuch much successful favour of planetary multipolarity than occidental countries. Europe (less France) tends to autumn into enactment with the U.S. nether pressure. At this peculiar infinitesimal of Mr. Trump’s high-handedness with Europe, it is not astonishing that Europe is turning to countries specified arsenic India. But historically they person followed the American lead.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s code astatine the Munich Security Conference successful February 2026 made it wide that Europe and America beryllium together, casting it successful communal civilisational and individuality presumption which leaves the Global South retired successful the cold. He minced nary words, openly whitewashing occidental assemblage enlargement and calling for a “western proviso chain” to regain its position. This suggests that a caller geoeconomic confederation strategy of this benignant would beryllium hierarchical. The Global South seems to beryllium little partners, much targets of competition. The lasting ovation for Mr. Rubio from a supposedly captious European assemblage spoke volumes.
In this epoch of civilization contests and tribalism, it is hard to spot a earthy affinity betwixt Europe and India erstwhile the going gets tough. As the satellite remains ammunition shocked by the Iran war, it is wide that European states volition efficaciously facilitate American and Israeli interests contempt the show of reservations by pronouncements specified arsenic “not our war” connected the West Asian conflict. In immoderate caller determination bid that emerges, it is besides wide that New Delhi volition hardly beryllium capable to number connected the Europeans for Indian strategical autonomy purposes.
Deepa M. Ollapally is Research Professor of International Affairs, The George Washington University, U.S.; N. Manoharan is Professor and Director, Centre for East Asian Studies, CHRIST University, Bengaluru
