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When the struggle successful West Asia, which began with the U.S. and Israel’s onslaught connected Iran connected February 28, escalated into a determination war, analysts said that the warfare would past arsenic agelong arsenic Iran had missiles oregon until the Gulf nations ran retired of interceptors.
A important fig of munitions, particularly missiles and interceptors, person been utilized by each parties engaged successful the conflict.
Follow | Iran-Israel War updates - March 25, 2026
However, with “emergency” subject sales, piling monetary costs and a strained proviso chain, is the U.S. becoming excessively constrained successful its effort to support the warfare going — some militarily and monetarily?
On February 28, erstwhile the attacks began, Mr. Trump said that the U.S. was going to destruct Iran’s missiles and raze their rocket manufacture to the ground.
However, Iran has continued its attacks connected assorted Gulf states and their vigor infrastructure. Though it has reduced its pace, it has launched implicit 1,400 ballistic missiles and 3,400 drones betwixt February 28 and March 23 .
Gulf nations, connected the different hand, person rushed to the U.S. for interceptors. Last week, the U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio waived the request of a Congress support to walk a $16.46 cardinal successful subject income to the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait successful the aftermath of the Iran war.
The biggest azygous merchantability was of lower-tier aerial rocket defence sensor radars to Kuwait for $8 billion, followed by the merchantability of a long-range favoritism radar and related instrumentality for $4.5 cardinal to the UAE.
This is besides not the archetypal specified instance. In the archetypal week of March, the U.S. approved an “emergency” merchantability of 12,000 weaponry casings worthy $151.8 cardinal to Israel.
Further, the Washington Post reported past week that the Pentagon has raised a petition of much than $200 cardinal to money the warfare successful Iran– an magnitude that would surpass the costs of the administration’s monolithic airstrike run till date.
These deals aside, the warfare itself has been an costly affair. According to an investigation by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Operation Epic Fury is estimated to person outgo $16.5 cardinal by its 12th day.
The estimation is based connected assumptions astir the U.S.-allies divided successful aerial defence. It besides assumes that much than 90% of munitions utilized aft Day 5 were low-cost weapons.
Even with these assumptions, information amusement that the U.S. has utilized a important stock of its erstwhile procurements.
As shown successful the illustration above, the estimated fig of munitions expended successful conscionable six days exceeds the fig of orders placed by the Department of Defence successful FY26 successful respective cases. These orders themselves mightiness instrumentality much than a twelvemonth to beryllium delivered.
For instance, successful little than a week, the U.S. has expended 158 of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors. This is astir 25% of each its erstwhile procurements till FY24. It is besides six times its bid for THAAD interceptors placed successful FY26.
Similarly, it is estimated to person utilized 139 of its Patriot Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3) Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE), a precocious velocity hit-to-kill, surface-to-air rocket to intercept aerial breathing threats, ballistic and cruise missiles. This is astir 7% of its erstwhile PAC-3 procurements.
Estimates amusement that astir 15% of its erstwhile procurements of Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM)– a agelong range, accepted air-to-surface cruise missile– person been expended successful conscionable six days of its warfare with Iran.
Replenishing these stockpiles volition again cost the U.S. millions. For instance, the U.S. volition necessitate astir $2 cardinal to regenerate the THAAD interceptors utilized successful the archetypal six days. Similarly, it volition request $3 cardinal and adjacent to $1 cardinal to regenerate the SM-3 interceptors and Tomahawk missiles respectively.
Supply concatenation factor
The U.S.’s quality to spend the warfare besides depends on mineral proviso chains. Certain minerals specified arsenic tungsten, gallium, germanium and antimony which are important successful assorted subject applications are nether constrained supply.
As shown successful the illustration below, the U.S.’s Net Import Reliance (NIR) exceeds 90% for antimony and gallium. For germanium and tungsten, its NIR is greater than 50%.
Antimony is captious mineral utilized successful the accumulation of atomic weapons, infrared sensors and explosive formulations. Enforcement agencies trust connected germanium for surveillance and people acquisition arsenic it is utilized successful infrared imaging devices. Its different uses see fibre-optic cables and optical devices.
Gallium is utilized successful the sensors successful abstraction and defence systems. Tungsten is utilized for a assortment of subject applications, specified arsenic alloy bullets, shrapnel heads, equilibrium pinballs successful missiles and aircraft, artillery shells and armoured tanks.
Almost 20% of the U.S.’s nett imports of these minerals straight comes from China. Beijing besides controls astir 30% of planetary exports of Antimony and Gallium. It besides surpasses respective different countries successful presumption of accumulation and refining capableness of these minerals
Earlier this month, S&P Global reported that the Pentagon’s quality to replenish weapons stockpiles could travel nether unit from shortages successful immoderate captious mineral markets arsenic good arsenic from China’s leverage implicit mineral proviso chains.
Data for the charts were sourced from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, U.S. Department of Defence, United States Geological Survey (USGS) and Jewish Institute for National Security of America(JINSA
