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On May 16, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu announced a one-time inducement of ₹30,000 for the 3rd kid and ₹40,000 for the fourth. He said that these incentives were a portion of the State’s caller colonisation absorption argumentation to promote colonisation growth.
On the surface, the incentives to person bigger families whitethorn dependable sensible with the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS-6) study for the twelvemonth 2023-24 placing the State’s fertility level astatine 1.8, which is beneath the replacement level of 2.1. However, a person look warrants questions connected astatine slightest 3 fronts: whether specified an inducement is capable for families to person much children; what the cardinal reasons are for the dropping fertility rate; and whether specified an involution is indispensable now.
A examination of this one-time currency inducement against basal expenditures shows that it cannot offset the childcare costs, a interest that is prompting families to rethink having much children.
The government’s inducement is astir doubly the mean outgo of hospitalisation for childbirth successful India, and a acold smaller aggregate of the outgo successful Andhra Pradesh. In fact, it is astir the aforesaid arsenic the outgo of hospitalisation for childbirth successful the State’s municipality area. In a State wherever much than 50% of births hap successful backstage hospitals and astir 52% of each deliveries hap done Caesarean sections, this inducement volition conscionable offset the hospitalisation outgo successful agrarian areas (Chart 2). It is besides inadequate to screen the outgo of C-sections successful backstage hospitals successful municipality areas.
For a household of 5 (assuming determination are 2 adults and 3 children), this inducement is astir 1.5 times their Monthly Per Capita Expenditure (MPCE) successful agrarian areas and astir akin to the MPCE successful municipality areas, arsenic per the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey for 2023-24. This means that the inducement could conscionable assistance the families conscionable their depletion needs for 1 month, provided the aforesaid was not already spent successful infirmary during childbirth.
Cannot spend children
Moreover, the question astir household readying has moved from whether families ‘should’ person much children to whether they tin spend to. The United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) ‘State of World Population Report 2025’ shows that fiscal limitations are the premier obstruction to having children.
Other barriers included lodging limitations, followed by unemployment (or occupation insecurity), and the deficiency of prime and affordable childcare options. In galore of these indicators, the stock of Indians pointing to these concerns was overmuch higher than the mean stock crossed the 14 countries that were surveyed for the report.
The survey further pointed retired that a larger stock of Indian men and women preferred having either 1 oregon 2 children.
Less than 10% of Indian respondents said they would similar to person three, 4 oregon much children, which is astir connected a par with the stock of Indians who preferred having nary children.
It is noteworthy that the below-replacement fertility complaint successful Andhra Pradesh and crossed India does not mean that the colonisation diminution is imminent. The colonisation volition proceed to increase, past stabilise and yet statesman to decline, which, for India, is apt to hap lone successful 2063 arsenic per estimates.
For instance, though Japan and South Korea’s fertility rates dropped beneath the replacement level successful the precocious 1970s and the aboriginal 1980s respectively, their populations — which are little than 10% of India’s — began to diminution lone astir 2010 and 2020.
The information for the charts were sourced from the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey 2023-24, Household Social Consumption: Health 2025, NFHS-6, Our World successful Data and the UNFPA
