3 months ago
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The Indian commercialized delegation’s last-minute postponement of its travel to Washington to finalise an Interim Agreement with the U.S., and the U.S. Supreme Court’s determination connected tariffs some person implications for India’s imports from Russia arsenic good arsenic the U.S.
The Indian delegation was to beryllium successful the U.S. connected February 23-25 to finalise the Interim Agreement, which Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said could beryllium implemented betwixt mid-March and aboriginal April. However, sources successful the Commerce Ministry connected February 22 said that the gathering volition beryllium rescheduled “at a mutually convenient date”.
“The 2 sides are of the presumption that the projected sojourn of the Indian main negotiator and the squad beryllium scheduled aft each broadside has had the clip to measure the latest developments and its implications,” the authoritative said.
Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has said earlier that India volition beryllium capable to region oregon little its tariffs for American imports lone aft a woody is signed. The U.S., connected the different hand, could truthful acold modify tariffs done enforcement orders.
No much threats implicit Russian oil
According to commercialized and ineligible experts, the determination by the U.S. Supreme Court has meant that President Trump nary longer has immoderate laws that volition alteration him to levy tariffs connected India if it continues buying Russian lipid successful ample quantities.
Further, without the menace of tariffs, India tin erstwhile again trim its acquisition of comparatively costly American lipid and sour Venezuelan oil.
“With reciprocal tariffs gone, the U.S. present does not person immoderate instrumentality nether which it tin penalise India for buying Russian oil,” Ajay Srivastava, laminitis of the Global Trade Research Initiative and erstwhile Director General of Foreign Trade said. “Even if we were to proceed our lipid imports from the U.S., which person astir doubled successful the past fewer months, we should refrain from buying lipid from Venezuela.”
An investigation by The Hindu recovered that the worth of India’s crude lipid imports from Russia fell to a 38-month debased successful December 2025, with Russia’s stock successful India’s lipid imports falling to little than a 4th from 34% conscionable a period before. On the different hand, lipid imports from the U.S. grew astir 31% implicit December 2024.
The investigation besides showed that India imported lipid from the U.S. astatine an mean terms of $506.7 per tonne successful December 2025, which is astir 8% higher than the mean terms astatine which it imported lipid from Russia that month.
“On Russian oil, the Indian authorities has made its presumption wide that it would guarantee India’s vigor and strategical information and proceed to import from wherever it gets the champion rates,” Pankaj Chadha, president of exporter assemblage EEPC India said.
Uncertainty implicit deal
“India should travel a wait-and-watch attack and should spot however different countries that person signed deals with the U.S. are reacting,” Mr. Chadha said. “A woody has 2 sides, which means they besides person to springiness america something.”
Mr. Srivastava, who has worked connected respective commercialized deals successful the past, says that the determination to postpone the Indian team’s sojourn to Washington could simply beryllium an “administrative delay”.
“There is simply a anticipation that this hold successful the Indian team’s sojourn to the U.S. could person been astatine the petition of the U.S. since their officials would beryllium nether occurrence trying to fig retired the mode forward,” helium explained. “It could precise good beryllium an administrative delay.”
“Several different trading partners of the U.S., with which it had signed deals, person explicitly said that they request much clarity from the U.S. earlier the deals tin beryllium ratified,” Mr. Srivastava added. “India has said that it has noted the developments and is studying them, but did not notation the advancement of the deal.”
Impact connected India’s imports
A delayed Interim Agreement volition besides propulsion backmost the day from which India volition person to trim tariffs for imports from the U.S. This tin person a dual effect.
On the 1 hand, home manufacturers tin respire a small easier since they volition not person to vie with duty-free imports from the U.S.
However, connected the different hand, respective items that India successful immoderate lawsuit imports from the U.S. successful ample and rising quantities volition proceed to look import tariffs, thereby making them much costly than they would person been had the woody gone through.
Mr. Goyal has antecedently told The Hindu that determination are respective items specified arsenic oil, LPG, LNG, craft and parts, parts for information centres and quantum computing that India needs but does not manufacture, and truthful would request to import.
India’s imports of physics components grew 117% to astir $2.1 cardinal successful April-December 2025 arsenic compared to the aforesaid play of the erstwhile year. Similarly, the import of telecom instruments accrued 25%, and of integrated chemicals by astir 34% implicit this period.
The associated connection betwixt the 2 countries said India intends to import $500 cardinal worthy of vigor products, craft and craft parts, precious metals, exertion products, and coking ember from the U.S. implicit the adjacent 5 years. It is unclear whether this volition volition stay successful the lack of a commercialized deal.
Other countries person mixed response
The European Union has besides said the U.S. indispensable supply much clarity earlier the EU Parliament tin ratify the U.S.-EU deal.
“A woody is simply a deal,” the European Commission said successful a connection connected February 22. “As the United States’ largest trading partner, the EU expects the U.S. to honour its commitments acceptable retired successful the Joint Statement — conscionable arsenic the EU stands by its commitments.”
“In particular, EU products indispensable proceed to payment from the astir competitory treatment, with nary increases successful tariffs beyond the wide and all-inclusive ceiling antecedently agreed,” the connection added.
Bernd Lange, seat of the European Parliament’s planetary commercialized committee, said helium would beryllium recommending “putting legislative enactment connected clasp until we person a due ineligible appraisal and wide commitments from the US side”.
Officials successful Japan, connected the different hand, person shied distant from saying they volition beryllium relooking astatine the deal. According to them, the crux of Japan’s woody with the U.S. was connected lowering auto-related tariffs, which stay unaffected by the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision.
