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It has been implicit 2 years since apical Tamil histrion Vijay launched his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). Yet, with nary electoral debut truthful far, determination is small clarity connected the party’s imaginable ballot stock successful the upcoming Tamil Nadu and Puducherry Assembly elections.
Within the party, optimism runs high, with immoderate functionaries informally projecting a ballot stock of astir 25%. Outside, however, estimates alteration widely. A conception of observers believes TVK could reflector the aboriginal show of precocious Vijayakanth’s DMDK, securing astir 8–10% successful its archetypal outing. Others suggest the enactment could propulsion person to 15%.
Predicting electoral outcomes successful Tamil Nadu has ne'er been straightforward, peculiarly successful Assembly elections. The introduction of TVK and of Mr Vijay, a governmental greenhorn with Chief Ministerial ambitions, has lone analyzable the arithmetic further.
The enactment skipped the past Lok Sabha polls and the February 2025 Erode (East) Assembly bypoll. Consequently, its existent enactment basal remains untested. Its determination to spell it unsocial has acceptable the signifier for a four-cornered contention successful Tamil Nadu.
Was this strategical restraint—avoiding aboriginal electoral exposure—a deliberate determination by Mr. Vijay to support his governmental superior intact up of a high-stakes debut?
“Mr. Vijay knows what helium is doing. Like successful his movies, helium is going by the publication successful authorities arsenic well,” said Professor G. Palanithurai, erstwhile dean of Students’ Welfare astatine Gandhigram Rural Institute.
There is simply a mentation that Dravidian rhetoric has killed intellectualism successful the State. Professor Palanithurai, who specialises successful grass-roots democracy, said helium has been visiting campuses, and the deficiency of governmental sermon successful higher acquisition institutions has led to the younker gravitating towards the histrion implicit time.
Besides, corruption has been regularised. The ruling DMK and Opposition AIADMK impeach each different of corruption but ne'er instrumentality enactment against each different erstwhile successful power. “Mr. Vijay has sensed it. That is wherefore helium is focusing connected anti-corruption to pull voters. Vijayakanth besides fought connected the anti-corruption theme, but Mr. Vijay is much fashionable than Vijayakanth. He attracts immense crowds, particularly youth. Even the ruling DMK can’t bring successful specified crowds voluntarily,” helium said.
While crediting the Dravidian parties with their developmental policies, some societal and industrial, the academician, however, said authorities has present go corrupt. “Mr. Vijay is simply a movie personality. He understands the science of the masses. The regularisation of instrumentality has present go the ruling party’s law. That is wherefore helium is taking connected the ruling governments,” helium added.
“On the flip side, dissimilar [actor-turned-Chief Ministers] MGR and Jayalalithaa, Mr. Vijay is not adjacent to the fertile and file. He is successful isolation each the time. Also, the TVK’s 2nd enactment of enactment is not impressive. However, Tamil Nadu’s peculiar authorities lacks a corporate enactment arsenic Dravidianism has shown the mode to herding. Mass entreaty counts,” helium asserted.
Against the ideologically inclined DMK and politically masterful precocious M. Karunanidhi, it was the idiosyncratic charisma and governmental acumen of MGR and J. Jayalalithaa that had kept the AIADMK successful powerfulness for a longer clip than its arch-rival. Mr. Vijay, with his wide appeal, seems to beryllium gradually filling the charismatic leaders’ role.
But is that capable to penetrate the satellite of politics? “Popularity successful cinema doesn’t ever bring votes. We can’t gully a parallel betwixt Mr. Vijay and MGR. MGR had a beardown clasp successful the party, and helium broke ranks portion helium was the treasurer of the DMK. He campaigned and worked hard for each those years. He besides brought the underprivileged and the subaltern into his movies. The titles would resonate with communities, like Vivasayi, Padagotti and Meenava Nanban,” said P. Ramajayam, an academician.
“Grass-roots authorities requires societal and governmental mobilisation, involving respective groups similar minorities and subalterns”, helium said. “Mr. Vijay’s popularity seems to beryllium higher among the youth. But truthful far, helium has not been tested electorally. He is assured and wants lone affirmative results,” helium added.
Long-time governmental observers consciousness that isolated from the wide appeal, the enactment needs societal and governmental mobilisation. The TVK should person a spot of astir 300 to 400 cadre per booth to unafraid astir 100 votes each. If the enactment garners 15% of votes, Mr. Vijay would person a aboriginal arsenic a politician.
“Mr Vijay is surely a ample assemblage puller, and the crowds are organic. Only 2 leaders bash not wage for crowds— [Naam Tamilar Katchi’s] Seeman and Mr. Vijay,” said R. Kannan, biographer of erstwhile Chief Ministers C.N. Annadurai and MGR.
Asked if Mr. Vijay would succeed, helium says, “May 4 [election counting date] volition springiness the answer.”
