6 months ago
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In a uncommon January upwind event, a strategy implicit the Bay of Bengal is apt to consolidate into a heavy slump by Thursday (January 8, 2026) and trigger dense rainfall successful parts of Tamil Nadu. The Bay of Bengal has witnessed lone 20 aggravated upwind systems successful January since 1891.
Rains are expected to prime up gait successful coastal Tamil Nadu from Thursday, with wide dense rainfall crossed assorted coastal and adjoining districts till January 11.
B. Amudha, Head, (Additional in-charge), RMC, said it is antithetic for specified aggravated upwind systems to signifier implicit the Bay of Bengal successful January. However, determination person been a fewer past instances erstwhile the Bay churned retired aggravated upwind systems that reached slump strength oregon higher up to terrible cyclonic storms during January, according to IMD’s Cyclone e-Atlas information from1891 to 2024.
The IMD is monitoring the anticipation of the prevailing strategy gaining spot into a cyclone, she said.
Meteorologists pointed retired that astir 11 upwind systems of slump strength oregon higher person formed implicit the Bay of Bengal since 1961. Y.E.A. Raj, erstwhile lawman manager wide of meteorology, Chennai, said 5 of the January systems occurred betwixt 2001 and 2024.
In January, the upwind systems mostly bash not intensify overmuch arsenic conditions are often unfavourable. Such systems often thin to signifier astatine little latitudes, and astir of them dissipate implicit the water without making landfall, helium said.
The accrued detection of upwind systems owed to advances successful observational tools was 1 of the reasons for emergence successful frequence of January systems during caller decades. Accurate and accordant records person been disposable since aboriginal 1960s, pursuing the motorboat of satellite-based cyclone tracking. Data was obtained from accepted sources anterior to that, helium said.
Climate alteration whitethorn besides beryllium influencing caller changes successful upwind trends. But reasons down specified summation successful aggravated upwind systems request further study, said Mr. Raj.
The Regional Meteorological Centre forecast that the slump implicit southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining East Equatorial Indian Ocean is apt to intensify into a heavy slump by Thursday. It is apt to determination west-northwestwards towards southwest Bay of Bengal during the consequent 48 hours.
Five districts, including Ramanathapuram and Thanjavur, are apt to get dense rainfall connected Thursday. An orangish alert has been issued to Thiruvarur and Nagapattinam arsenic dense to precise dense rainfall is imaginable connected Friday (January 9, 2026). Intense downpour whitethorn proceed successful immoderate delta districts connected January 10. Northern districts, including Kallakurichi and Chennai, whitethorn travel nether the power of dense rainfall connected Saturday (January 10, 2026) and Sunday (January 11, 2026).
