2 months ago
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The determination by the U.S. to “allow” India to import Russian oil for a play of 30 days volition assistance mitigate the spike successful the terms of lipid and delays successful lipid shipments to import-dependent India, according to analysts.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, successful an aboriginal greeting station connected X connected Friday (March 6, 2026), said that the U.S. was granting India this 30-day reprieve to “alleviate unit caused by Iran’s effort to instrumentality planetary vigor hostage”.
President Trump's vigor docket has resulted successful lipid and state accumulation reaching the highest levels ever recorded.
To alteration lipid to support flowing into the planetary market, the Treasury Department is issuing a impermanent 30-day waiver to let Indian refiners to acquisition Russian oil.…
This comes astatine a clip erstwhile the Indian authorities has made assurances that India has capable amounts of crude oil, petrol and diesel successful reserve. According to sources, India presently has 25 days of crude lipid successful reserve, and 25 days each of petrol and diesel each.
This besides follows a comparatively sustained play wherever India has been cutting backmost connected its Russian lipid imports and expanding lipid imports from the U.S.
“To alteration lipid to support flowing into the planetary market, the Treasury Department is issuing a impermanent 30-day waiver to let Indian refiners to acquisition Russian oil,” Mr. Bessent posted connected X. “This deliberately short-term measurement volition not supply important fiscal payment to the Russian authorities arsenic it lone authorises transactions involving lipid already stranded astatine sea.”
The Indian National Congress cited this station and attacked the Modi government, saying that the Government of India nether Prime Minister Narendra Modi has led India to a constituent wherever the “United States is present deciding wherever India tin bargain lipid from and wherever it cannot”.
Current presumption connected Russian imports
Notably, connected February 6, U.S. President Donald Trump lowered tariffs connected Indian imports from 50% to 25% by removing the 25% penal tariffs helium had imposed successful August 2025 linked to India’s acquisition of Russian oil.
He said this relaxation was due to the fact that “India has committed to halt straight oregon indirectly importing Russian Federation oil, [and] has represented that it volition acquisition United States vigor products from the United States”.
A erstwhile investigation by The Hindu of the latest preliminary information from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry shows that India imported $1.98 cardinal worthy of crude lipid from Russia successful January 2026, the period earlier India and the U.S. issued a associated connection astir an interim commercialized statement betwixt the 2 countries. This was besides the lowest successful 44 months.
As a effect of this, Russia’s stock successful Indian lipid imports fell to 19.3% successful January 2026, the lowest since December 2022. In comparison, Russia’s stock was 27.5% 2 months earlier, and 33% successful May 2025.
The request for Russian oil
“Considering much than 55% of India’s lipid imports walk done the Strait of Hormuz, elevated terms and delays volition agelong India’s lipid measure ($11.5bn/month) unless India ramps up imports from Russia (19% presently versus 43% successful July 2024),” JM Financial Services said successful a note.
It added that, successful the “extreme” script of Brent crude prices breaching the $90 per tube mark, India’s existent relationship shortage (CAD) could agelong to 1.4% of GDP, and the rupee could depreciate to ₹95 per U.S. dollar.
“However, successful specified a scenario, imports of Russian substance volition instrumentality centre stage,” it added.
Moody’s besides pointed retired that India stands retired among the ample Asian economies that trust connected crude and LNG from West Asia owed to its precocious stock of West Asian crude among full lipid imports, and unit from the US to chopped its vigor imports from Russia.
“Costly vigor imports would weaken the rupee, rise inflation, worsen the existent relationship equilibrium and complicate monetary argumentation arsenic good arsenic fiscal absorption if they pb to expanded subsidies to assistance offset the economical shock,” Moody’s said.
Buying much from the U.S.
In his post, Mr. Bessent further said that “India is an indispensable spouse of the United States”, and that the U.S. anticipates that India volition “ramp up” purchases of U.S. oil.
“This stop-gap measurement volition alleviate unit caused by Iran’s effort to instrumentality planetary vigor hostage,” Mr. Bessent said.
The information shows that India has been expanding its imports from the U.S. implicit the past fewer months. That is, India imported $11.6 cardinal worthy of crude lipid from the U.S. successful the play April 2025 to January 2026, which is 32% higher than successful the aforesaid play of the erstwhile fiscal year.
As a result, the U.S.’ stock successful India’s lipid imports grew to 8% successful the play April 2025 to January 2026 from 5.7% successful the aforesaid play of the erstwhile fiscal year.
Congress takes purpose astatine government
“The Government of India nether Narendra Modi has led the state to a concern wherever the United States is present deciding wherever India tin bargain lipid from and wherever it cannot,” the Congress said successful a station connected X. “This determination is not being made by Prime Minister Modi, nor by the Indian government. Today, citizens of the state are asking: who is the United States to ‘permit’ India to bargain oil?”
The station went connected to asseverate that “we [India] are not slaves to immoderate nation” and are a sovereign and autarkic country.
“But Narendra Modi cannot inquire this question to the United States, due to the fact that helium is wholly compromised and has mortgaged the state to American interests,” the station added.
