4 months ago
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India’s wide commercialized script is not apt to look overmuch of an interaction if it were to halt trading with Iran successful effect to U.S. President Donald Trump’s caller threat of a 25% tariff connected immoderate state doing concern with Iran, authoritative information shows. However, it could temporarily interaction immoderate sectors specified arsenic rice, tea, caller fruits, and indispensable oils, authoritative information shows.
“Effective immediately, immoderate Country doing concern with the Islamic Republic of Iran volition wage a Tariff of 25% connected immoderate and each concern being done with the United States of America,” Mr. Trump posted connected Truth Social aboriginal greeting connected January 13. “This Order is last and conclusive.”
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Mr. Trump’s actions are successful absorption to the Iranian government’s evident crackdown connected protestors successful that country.
India has a past of stopping oregon reducing commercialized with Iran successful effect to U.S. actions. India’s commercialized with Iran declined importantly aft 2019, pursuing the sanctions imposed connected that state by the U.S. However, adjacent anterior to this, the wide commercialized levels had remained comparatively small, with the 2 countries mostly engaging with each different successful a fewer sectors.
According to commercialized experts, if India were to halt trading with Iran, portion immoderate sectors mightiness consciousness immoderate short-term pain, Iran’s stock is tiny capable that India volition soon beryllium capable to find alternatives.
Impact connected India’s exports
An investigation by The Hindu of the latest commercialized information with the Ministry of Commerce and Industry shows that Iran accounted for 0.26% ($764.5 million) of India’s full exports successful 2025-26 up to November 2025. This stock has been falling beauteous consistently since 2019-20, erstwhile Iran’s stock successful India’s exports was 1.1%.
To gauge the sectoral impact, it is important to look astatine the stock of a assemblage successful India’s exports to Iran, and the stock of Iran successful India’s full exports of that sector. If some values are high, the interaction connected that assemblage is apt to beryllium high.
Of India’s exports to Iran, a whopping 61% ($756 million) successful 2025-26 truthful acold was basmati rice. If India were to halt exporting to Iran successful effect to the U.S. tariff threats, this is simply a assemblage that could look immoderate symptom arsenic basmati atom exports to Iran made up 13.1% of India’s full basmati atom exports this year.
The different sectors that mightiness consciousness an interaction are tea, with Iran making up 5.6% of India’s beverage exports, indispensable oils (5.4%), and caller fruits (5.3%). Each of these sectors are among the top-5 exports of India to Iran.
Impact connected India’s imports
Just arsenic Iran has played a tiny and declining relation successful India’s exports, its stock successful India’s imports has likewise been shrinking.
Iran’s stock successful India’s full imports stood astatine a comparatively tiny 2.7% successful 2016-17, which shrank sharply aft 2019 and is present 0.04% arsenic of November 2025.
Sectorally, the information shows that India’s imports from Iran are presently dominated by 2 sectors — petroleum products (46.6% share) and caller fruits (39.8% share).
Of these, the caller fruits assemblage mightiness consciousness immoderate short-term proviso issues arsenic Iran accounts for 4% of India’s full caller effect imports. However, this interaction is apt to beryllium constricted successful presumption of scope and time.
Iran utilized to beryllium a comparatively important root of crude lipid for India, accounting for astir 7% of India’s full crude lipid imports successful 2012-13. However, the concern is precise antithetic now, with authoritative information showing that India has not imported crude lipid from Iran since 2019-20.
