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More than 100 days person passed since the Tarique Rahman authorities took complaint successful Bangladesh. However, contrary to aboriginal expectations from his leadership, India-Bangladesh relations person remained much oregon little the aforesaid arsenic successful the hard months of the interim government.
Actions, not rhetoric
India reached retired doubly earlier Mr. Rahman became the Bangladesh Prime Minister. The archetypal outreach was by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar who visited Dhaka connected December 31, 2025 to condole the passing of Mr. Rahman’s mother, erstwhile Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. The 2nd clip was done Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, who carried Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s invitation letter, and Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla who connected February 17 participated successful the swearing-in ceremonial of Mr. Rahman. But sources successful the ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) accidental specified gestures successful themselves are insufficient. An influential conception wrong the BNP consciousness that arsenic a goodwill motion towards the caller government, India should person reversed immoderate of the retributory steps that it had taken during the interim government’s regularisation nether Muhammad Yunus. These steps included the restarting of transhipments for goods from Bangladesh, afloat restoration of visa services including concern and aesculapian visas, and stopping the restrictive marketplace entree for Bangladeshi goods. None of these measures person been implemented truthful far, arsenic per Dhaka. They reason that, by not reversing these decisions, India has not delivered immoderate beforehand incentives to Mr. Rahman who volition person to prosecute with the Jamaat-e-Islami and respective anti-India pupil outfits earlier normalising ties with India.
On its part, the BNP’s seasoned leaders person tried to smoothen the narration by creating greater nationalist acceptability of the presumption that the beingness of the deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina successful India volition not clasp ties back, a departure from the hardline stance that the interim authorities had taken. Here also, Dhaka feels that specified attempts person not recovered appreciation from the Indian side.
As impervious they notation to the assertive usage of ‘illegal immigration’ successful authoritative connection from Delhi pursuing the triumph of the Bharatiya Janata Party successful West Bengal and Assam. Bangladeshi diplomats person pointed retired that Dhaka expected little rhetoric connected delicate issues specified arsenic amerciable immigration, and much absorption connected issues specified arsenic visa restoration and the renewal of the 1996 Ganga Water Treaty.
Dhaka had sent Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman to Delhi connected April 7-8 for a little visit, to trial the waters, wherever helium met National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Mr. Jaishankar. However, the predetermination run successful Assam and West Bengal astir Bangladesh-related issues and a flurry of interviews by exiled PM Sheikh Hasina person displayed that Mr. Rahman’s BNP, contempt winning a landslide bulk successful Bangladesh, has not managed to impressment India. While a elder diplomat successful Dhaka said that Bangladesh was assured that the connection astir State elections would not bespeak New Delhi’s overseas policy, the Ministry of External Affairs’ strident presumption connected amerciable migration person generated ‘a consciousness of betrayal’ successful Dhaka’s secretariat.
According to reports, Mr. Rahman, sensing that the model for restoration of ties with India is not opening arsenic per expectations, is successful the last stages of considering visits to Malaysia and China that are apt to instrumentality spot successful the past week of June.
Bangladesh’s dilemma
This crook to China nevertheless cannot fell the information that it is incumbent connected Bangladesh, arsenic overmuch arsenic it is connected India, to repair bilateral ties. Bangladesh’s ties with India stay breached due to the fact that of the 2024 uprising and the consequent interim regularisation whereas its ties with China, the U.S. and different players person prospered since August 2024. Further, a pragmatic appraisal shows that without dependable assurance from India connected the main stream Padma (Ganga), Bangladesh’s different plans are not expected to proceed smoothly beyond 2026. River affairs adept Ainun Nishat has stated that a hold successful the renewal of the 30-year-old Ganga pact volition enactment the Ganges-Kobadak irrigation task successful a challenging concern affecting immense portions of occidental and cardinal Bangladesh. The deficiency of predictable h2o proviso volition impact the upcoming sowing seasons, hurting Bangladesh’s system that is already dealing with the crippling effects of the vigor situation due to the fact that of the U.S.-Israel warfare connected Iran.
The compounded effect of these disruptive forces volition summation unit connected the Tarique Rahman authorities that is already nether disapproval for its inept handling of the worst measles outbreak successful the state that has claimed the lives of astatine slightest 600 infants. Critics person targeted the authorities for its anemic handling of the wellness situation arsenic good arsenic the increasing incidents of intersexual violence, which is simply a grounds of the breakdown of instrumentality and bid successful the state that is yet to marque a betterment since the protests of August 2024. Rivals, including Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League that are mobilising connected the crushed contempt a ban, volition beryllium strengthened if Mr. Rahman fails to renew the Ganga stream statement with Delhi earlier the deadline of December 31, 2026.
Such worldly factors connected the crushed telephone for pragmatism successful some the capitals arsenic the challenges volition soon overwhelm Bangladesh, reverting it to instability, which again is not successful India’s contiguous oregon semipermanent interests.
