8 months ago
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The signing of the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) successful Riyadh, connected September 17, 2025, by the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Premier Shahbaz Sharif, with Field Marshal Asim Munir successful attendance, is simply a triumph of aboriginal anticipation implicit past experience. Sunni bulk Saudi Arabia and Pakistan stock respective commonalities. But they besides person important differences, restricting their past defence cooperation. Moreover, they person mutually dissenting menace perceptions.
All this prompts questions astir whether the caller statement would beryllium effectual and sustainable, and its granular interaction connected South West Asia.
The highs and the lows
The bilateral defence links day backmost to 1951, and their aureate play was during 1979-89 erstwhile a astir 20,000-strong Pakistani subject contingent was deployed successful Saudi Arabia to support the Holy Harams and Al-Saud successful summation to acting arsenic the bulwark against Iran and Yemen. However, communal differences soon clouded the equation.
At the perceptional level, portion the Saudi enactment treated the Pakistani contingent arsenic paid Praetorian Guards, Pakistani apical brass, utilized to commanding backmost home, bristled astatine being ordered around. Saudi insistence against the exclusion of Shia troops among the Pakistan contingent was often a woody breaker. By 1990, the full contingent was sent back. During the consequent threats faced by the Kingdom — from the Iraqi penetration of Kuwait successful 1990 to the Yemeni civilian warfare successful 2015 — Pakistan declined Saudi telephone for deployment, overmuch to the Saudi chagrin. Pakistan avowedly constricted their subject engagement to defending the kingdom’s 2 Holy Harams against overseas invasion.
The Pentagon has traditionally underpinned the Saudi-Pakistani defence alliance, albeit successful an over-the-horizon manner. In the existent case, too, the chronology suggests United States involvement. On June 7, Mr. Sharif and Field Marshal Munir met the Saudi Crown Prince successful Riyadh to denote the bilateral “strategic cooperation”. On June 22, with the Israel-Iran aerial warfare raging, U.S. President Trump hosted a “private lunch” astatine the White House for Field Marshal Munir, without immoderate erstwhile acquaintance. Circumstantial grounds suggests that the Saudi Crown Prince utilized his proximity to Mr. Trump to put a brainstorming of Pakistan’s relation successful defending Saudi Arabia and different pro-Western determination countries.
Editorial | Shifting sands: On the defence statement betwixt Saudi Arabia, Pakistan
Subsequent bromance betwixt the Trump medication and General Headquarters Rawalpindi was presumably nether the condemnation that Pakistan had the astute keys to the occidental geostrategic piquancy successful West Asia, ranging from a backdoor to Iran to anchoring Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) information done “boots connected the ground.” The SMDA was a Hobson’s prime for the Saudi Crown Prince. He is known to person demanded that the U.S. fulfil 3 prerequisites for Saudi designation of Israel: a binding bilateral Defence Agreement, entree to atomic exertion and state-of-the-art American limb systems. The U.S., successful turn, wanted Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel archetypal to alteration the transition of the projected pact done the Congress. However, this delicate choreography was upended by the Hamas blitz connected Israel, connected October 7, 2023, and the consequent Israeli penetration of Gaza. The decease and demolition successful Gaza has caused monolithic opprobrium and vitiated the governmental ambience successful the Arab Islamic Ummah, forcing the Kingdom, which hosts Islam’s 2 holiest shrines, to postpone the determination indefinitely. Thus, the SMDA became a distant consolation prize for Riyadh.
The September 9 Israeli aerial onslaught connected Hamas’s bureau successful Doha added an aerial of urgency to the SMDA process: it was the archetypal Israeli subject onslaught connected a GCC member, viz., Qatar, which hosts the largest U.S. subject basal successful West Asia and has a defence statement with the U.S. While Washington conceded to having been pre-informed by Israel, it did not support the country, arsenic obligated, and lamely offered assurance that specified attacks would not beryllium repeated. The occurrence dented the credibility of the U.S.’s information assurances to the GCC States, including Saudi Arabia.
The calculations
Historically, Riyadh has avoided stationing immoderate Arab subject contingents connected its ungraded to debar a governmental pollination of its masses. It has besides chosen not to person troops from Türkiye, the erstwhile assemblage master. The deployment of non-Muslim U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization troops successful the Kingdom to support Islam’s beatified shrines during the 1990-91 Kuwait warfare caused a superior spiritual rift successful the almighty Saudi clergy. Thus, past reservations notwithstanding, Riyadh has narrowed down to the SMDA with Pakistan.
Four points request to beryllium mentioned. First, the Kingdom has got on reasonably good without overseas forces connected its ungraded since 1991, having survived al-Qaeda terrorism, the 2nd Iraqi warfare and the Yemeni civilian war. Riyadh has ordered astir $100 cardinal worthy of precocious American weapons during Mr. Trump’s sojourn earlier this year, further bolstering its defences. Second, Pakistan is present a declared atomic weapons state, and the SMDA could travel successful useful successful lawsuit Iran becomes one. Third, Pakistan’s strategical tie-up with China, its “all-weather friend”, whitethorn beryllium an obstacle successful the mode of an unmitigated subject camaraderie. Last but not least, portion a transportation of Pakistani atomic weapons to Saudi Arabia nether the SMDA is possible, it would beryllium highly improbable, fixed Israeli reddish lines. It would beryllium recalled that during the June 2025 war, Pakistani generals reportedly promised to widen a atomic umbrella to Iran against Israel, lone to swiftly recant. However, fixed A.Q. Khan’s precedent, a surreptitious transportation of exertion for processing atomic weapons and transportation systems cannot beryllium ruled out. For these reasons, the SMDA is apt to presage smaller Pakistani footprints successful Saudi Arabia than the past involvements.
Islamabad’s calculations from the SMDA are apt to beryllium rather asymmetrical to Riyadh’s. It has nary volition to combat Iran, Yemen oregon Israel astatine Saudi behest immoderate much than Saudi would instrumentality an progressive adversarial subject relation against India oregon Afghanistan successful a South Asian conflict. It would alternatively exploit the Saudi insecurity to its aggregate advantages, keenly monetising the IOUs (‘I beryllium you’) from Riyadh and Washington to get defence hardware, bid connected Saudi instrumentality and idiosyncratic aggrandisement of its apical brass. They would besides anticipation that this trilateral axis would underwrite its intrinsic strategical disadvantage against India. Pakistan would besides expect ample dollops of Saudi funds and lipid supplies to salvage its moribund economy.
Thus, connected balance, unless the worst-case script pans retired — erstwhile each bets are disconnected — the SMDA is fundamentally for the optics and to guarantee that Islamabad stays distant from Tehran.
What it means for India
Where does the SMDA permission India? Here, India has fewer cards. India is the world’s third-largest lipid importer and the lone ample system with rising lipid consumption. It is traditionally Saudi Arabia’s second-largest trading spouse and crude buyer. Its diaspora, the Kingdom’s largest, is preferred for competence and non-interference. Energetic diplomacy since 2014 has enabled India to enslaved good with Saudi Arabia, creating bilateral defence and intelligence-sharing ecosystems. Saudi Arabia plans to put $100 cardinal successful India, though existent transportation is acold short. Significantly, portion announcing the SMDA, Reuters quoted an unnamed elder Saudi authoritative arsenic acknowledging the request to equilibrium relations with Pakistan and India, “also a atomic power”. He added, “Our narration with India is much robust than it has ever been. We volition proceed to turn this narration and question to lend to determination bid successful whichever mode we can.” An authoritative Indian spokesperson has besides hinted that Riyadh took New Delhi into assurance implicit the SMDA negotiations. This not lone shows that Riyadh needs each the friends it tin get connected committee but besides that India’s strategical geoeconomic heft seems capable for the infinitesimal to “balance” tactical manoeuvring by Pakistan. The SMDA, nevertheless, enjoins India to beryllium vigilant and make greater synergies crossed the Arabian Sea.
Mahesh Sachdev is simply a retired Indian Ambassador specialising successful West Asia and lipid affairs. The views expressed are personal
