The lesson is national security cannot be outsourced

It is the 2nd week of warfare since strikes by the United States and Israel connected Iran began connected February 28 citing ‘existential’ and ‘imminent’ threats. A associated violative by 2 of the world’s astir lethal and technologically precocious militaries was expected to crush Iran rapidly — but Iran has struck backmost hard, hitting targets erstwhile thought harmless oregon ‘untouchable’.

Why has Iran targeted them? How does it alteration the quality of war? These targets are the assorted American subject bases and assets dispersed implicit the Gulf portion successful Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, Iraq, Syria and Oman. These attacks, combined with strikes connected captious vigor infrastructure, specified arsenic lipid depots, lipid fields, state fields and possibly astir crucially, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — person thrown the full portion into panic. Tough questions are being asked, particularly connected the information guarantees that America has been promising the portion for implicit decades. There is simply a consciousness of disbelief and helplessness successful the portion witnessing the bubble of externally sponsored information stroke distant successful nary time. Many are questioning the logic of it each portion others are already looking astatine alternate information options for the future.

The Gulf information arrangement

As the warfare continues, determination are reports that the rocket interceptors successful the Gulf countries person tally retired with the U.S. incapable to replenish them, prioritising the constricted availability of these captious antiaircraft systems for Israel. Why are the Gulf countries truthful helpless successful defending themselves? The reply lies successful a information statement worked retired successful the region, done America, astir 45 years ago.

After the Iranian Revolution successful 1979-80, the region’s monarchies felt threatened and the U.S. promised to support Gulf stableness against outer threats. In his 1980 State of the Union Address, successful absorption to the 1979 Iranian revolution, U.S. President Jimmy Carter had assured the region, and warned that immoderate extracurricular effort to power the Persian Gulf would beryllium regarded arsenic an battle connected captious interests of the U.S., and that specified an battle would beryllium repelled by immoderate means necessary, including subject force.

There were respective much initiatives later. At the U.S.-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit successful Riyadh successful May 2017, a projected determination confederation successful the signifier of an ‘Arab NATO’ oregon the Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA) was mooted, including the GCC nations, and Egypt, and Jordan. It failed to instrumentality disconnected owed to the diplomatic blockade connected Qatar successful June 2017. And, aft the Israeli rocket onslaught connected Doha, Qatar, targeting the Hamas enactment successful September 2025, the U.S. had assured iron-clad information guarantees to Qatar akin to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Charter.

However, each past U.S. efforts and assurances person travel to nothing. The U.S. has failed to support the Gulf countries, and the ongoing struggle demonstrates that its information guarantees are illusory, ineffective and unreliable. The Gulf states tin nary longer number connected American assurances for their aboriginal safety.

What India tin learn

There are important lessons. For decades, India has been 1 of the apical importers of arms. The turning constituent came with the Kargil War successful 1999, which exposed some captious shortages and vulnerabilities arising from import dependencies. One of cardinal recommendations of the Kargil Review Committee was achieving self-reliance successful subject equipment.

However, it was lone aft 2014, that ‘Atma Nirbharta’ oregon self-reliance really took shape. Over the past decade, the import percentages person gone down and indigenous productions person taken disconnected with backstage players being encouraged and adjacent incentivised. In FY 2024-25, Indian exports touched a grounds ₹23,622 crore (approximately $2.78 billion) portion import percentages came down to 25%-30%. Major limb platforms specified arsenic the BrahMos missile, Tejas combatant aircraft, artillery guns, and ammunition are successful request internationally, portion respective foreign-origin systems are present being manufactured successful India.

Looking ahead

The warfare successful Iran has galore bitter lessons for the portion and the world. Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are not lone considering reducing their concern commitments successful the U.S. but are besides exploring options to region American subject bases from their soil. If this happens, it volition beryllium the astir transformative alteration successful the determination information architecture since its inception astir 50 years ago. How this volition unfold and what the aboriginal Gulf information architecture volition look similar remains to beryllium seen. One happening is clear. A acquisition from this warfare is that nationalist information cannot beryllium bought oregon outsourced.

Rajeev Agarwal is simply a West Asia expert, a Senior Research Consultant astatine Chintan Research Foundation, Delhi, and a retired colonel. His X Handle is @rajeev1421