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On October 6, 2025, the time the Election Commission of India declared dates for the Assembly elections successful Bihar, assorted players, including Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) main J.P. Nadda and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) person Tejashwi Yadav, asserted that their parties volition win. However, the State’s longest-serving Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar, did not accidental anything.
Mr. Kumar’s soundlessness does not mean helium is absent from the contest. In fact, the biggest question hanging implicit the polls is the authorities of his wellness and whether the electorate is inclined to reward him with a past electoral triumph and nonstop him disconnected into the sunset, oregon ballot against him and nonstop him into governmental oblivion.
Mr. Kumar has carved retired a important elector enactment base, which includes Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), Mahadalits, immoderate sections of Pasmanda (backward) Muslims, and the “casteless” class of women voters. These groups person kept religion successful Mr. Kumar for much than 20 years — done his 9 swearing-in ceremonies arsenic Chief Minister and his galore cartwheels connected alliances and partners. “Sarkar kisi ki bhi ho, mukhyamantri toh Nitish hullo banega (Whoever forms the government, it volition beryllium headed by Nitish Kumar)” had go a staple sentiment successful Bihar.
Mr. Kumar’s quality to accommodate and set to antithetic confederation partners and induce them to admit his enactment has been attributed to his reinterpretation of societal justness authorities successful the State. He has strategically carved retired his ain elector basal from the broader Mandal OBC bloc, wherever the Yadav assemblage was perceived to beryllium monopolising powerfulness and privilege astatine the disbursal of different groups. While this reinterpretation of societal justness authorities has made Mr. Kumar invaluable to the BJP, his quality to bounds the Hindutva authorities of the BJP portion successful confederation with the enactment has made him a prime for the INDIA bloc arsenic well, whenever helium wished to alteration sides. Apart from this, reforms successful governance and improvements successful instrumentality and order, particularly erstwhile viewed against the RJD years, helped him pull enactment from women and younger voters.
Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 | Full coverage
However, Mr. Kumar’s mediocre wellness has brought questions of succession to the fore. People person wondered who volition inherit the enactment mantle and whether voting him backmost volition lone supply a model of accidental for the BJP to yet seizure the Chief Minister’s seat successful Bihar. What complicates matters is that determination is nary improvement of enactment — either successful his confederation oregon elsewhere — that could regenerate him. The TINA (there is nary alternative) origin is what made him alteration sides easily. And it is the aforesaid origin that is forcing adjacent the BJP, which is anxious to assertion power otherwise, footwear the tin down the road.
Thus, the underlying subtext of the Bihar polls revolves astir Mr. Kumar. The National Democratic Alliance has discerned this subtext: successful a burst of pre-poll energy, the State authorities announced a slew of measures, ranging from a ₹10,000 income and entrepreneurship strategy for women, escaped energy units, accrued pensions, and higher wage for payment workers. The BJP has unequivocally stated that Mr. Kumar volition stay Chief Minister if the NDA is voted back.
It is the aforesaid subtext that has led to the emergence of the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) headed by canvass strategist, Prashant Kishor. The JSP’s narrative, centred connected the request for a caller entrant, is intelligibly aimed astatine capturing votes from those who are contemplating a post-Nitish Kumar scenario. Whether that extremity volition manifest present oregon successful 2030 — the twelvemonth of the adjacent Assembly polls — remains to beryllium seen. Thus, the 2nd astir important unknowable of these polls is conscionable however overmuch the JSP volition dent the elector basal of established governmental parties and find the absorption of the NDA oregon the INDIA bloc.
Politics successful Bihar has been a root of absorbing meta-narratives for nationalist authorities implicit the past fewer decades — ranging from anti-Congress-ism, to student-led anti-Emergency movements, to the changing sermon connected societal justness politics, and expressions of sub-nationalist pride. Mr. Kumar has been a large subordinate successful shaping galore of these meta-narratives, particularly successful reinterpreting societal justness authorities and Bihari pride. The questions implicit his aboriginal person frankincense emerged not conscionable arsenic the underlying subtext successful these elections, but arsenic a cardinal meta-narrative — 1 that is apt to signifier outcomes connected effect day.
