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The prevailing debased planetary lipid prices mean that, if India chooses to displacement distant from importing Russian lipid and switches to much lipid from the U.S., the fiscal interaction of this would beryllium limited, according to experts arsenic good an investigation of India’s import data.
An investigation byThe Hindu of the measurement and worth of India’s lipid imports amusement that successful November 2025, the latest period for which determination is data, India imported lipid from Russia astatine the complaint of $482.7 per tonne. That month, lipid imports from the U.S. outgo $523.3 per tonne. On average, India paid $498.8 per tonne for its lipid imports successful November 2025.
In different words, successful November 2025, India received an mean discount of $16.1 per tonne from Russia, portion it bought lipid astatine an mean premium of $24.6 per tonne from the U.S.
Declining discount
Data shows that, portion the premium paid connected lipid from the U.S. has remained mostly the aforesaid arsenic 3 years ago, the discount received from Russia has shrunk considerably.
Three years earlier, successful November 2022, India received a discount of $40.3 a tonne connected its lipid imports from Russia. The premium paid connected American lipid stood astatine $21.2 per tonne.
“India was precise keen to support importing from Russia astatine a discounted complaint portion a discount existed,” Vibhuti Garg, Director for South Asia astatine the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said. “But that discount has present gone and planetary lipid prices person fallen significantly. They are astatine astir $60 a tube and could autumn further. So, if India does chopped down connected its Russian lipid imports significantly, this won’t presently beryllium damaging fiscally.
However, she added that, if successful the aboriginal prices spell backmost up to $80-90 a barrel, past the deficiency of this Russian discount could commencement pinching the Indian government.
A erstwhile study by The Hindu shows however India’s lipid imports from Russia touched a six-month precocious successful November 2025. However, since then, Reliance Industries, 1 of the biggest lipid importers successful India, said that it had not received immoderate lipid shipments from Russia successful the past 3 weeks of December 2025 and did not expect immoderate successful January 2026.
Limited impact
According to Ajay Srivastava, laminitis of think-tank Global Trade Research Initiative and erstwhile Director General of Foreign Trade successful the Government of India, the premium paid to the U.S. besides reflects the superior prime of the lipid supplied by it.
“Until 2023-24, Russian lipid was astir 20% cheaper than what we could get successful the market,” Mr. Srivastava said. “That terms differential has evaporated since then. There is besides a prime quality betwixt the lipid that we get from Russia and the US. Russian lipid is mostly dense crude, with a higher sulfur content, which is considered little quality, portion the US crude is lighter and of amended quality.”
He added that reducing lipid imports from Russia would not person immoderate fiscal interaction connected India.
“While strategical concerns are different, economically it volition not marque overmuch of a difference,” Mr. Srivastava said.
Other risks arise
Puneet Kumar, Partner, Energy Sector astatine EY-Parthenon India said that, with astir 35% of India’s lipid imports originating successful Russia, determination is simply a hazard to India from cutting down connected Russian oil. But he, too, acknowledged that this hazard is presently apt to beryllium offset owed to the debased lipid planetary lipid prices.
However, helium pointed retired different factors that could enactment a strain connected India’s finances if they persist.
“These gains would beryllium partially negated by different economical factors, including caller depreciation of the Indian rupee (around 5% this year) and accrued logistics outgo from U.S.,” Mr. Kumar said.
