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High-frequency indicators of November suggest that wide economical enactment has held up with request conditions remaining robust said Reserve Bank of India (RBI) officials successful the December variation of RBI Bulletin released connected Monday (December 22, 2025).
“Headline CPI ostentation edged up but continued to stay beneath the little tolerance level. Financial conditions remained benign, and the travel of fiscal resources to the commercialized assemblage remained robust,” they said.
Stating that successful Q2:2025-26, existent gross home merchandise (GDP) registered a maturation of 8.2%, the highest since Q4:2023-24, connected the backmost of robust backstage depletion and fixed investment, they said the maturation successful backstage depletion was sustained by a robust agrarian request and easing inflationary pressures. Net exports continued to beryllium a resistance connected growth, they added.
“Notwithstanding a crisp uptick successful existent GDP maturation successful Q2, the nominal GDP registered a four-quarter debased maturation of 8.7%. The narrowing of the spread betwixt nominal and existent GDP maturation reflected the moderation successful the GDP deflator to a debased of 0.5%,” they said.
They said portion the debased GST gross collections were mostly influenced by GST complaint rationalisation, different disposable high-frequency indicators of summation economical enactment specified arsenic e-way bills, petroleum pick-up depletion and integer payments, registered a pick-up successful growth.
“The crisp summation successful e-way measure transactions procreation indicates a emergence successful goods question and declinedfreight enactment supported by the GST reforms,” they said.
Emphasising that the Indian system was not afloat immune to the outer assemblage headwinds, they said coordinated fiscal, monetary and regulatory policies had helped to physique resilience implicit the year. Bolstered by beardown home demand, the economical maturation has been robust.
“Benign ostentation outlook provided capable abstraction for monetary argumentation to enactment growth. Continued absorption connected macroeconomic fundamentals and economical reforms should assistance unlock efficiencies and productivity gains to firmly support the system connected the high-growth trajectory amidst a fast-changing planetary environment,” they said.
They said the twelvemonth 2025 brought astir an unprecedented displacement successful planetary commercialized policies, marked by a determination towards bilateral renegotiations connected tariffs and presumption of trade. Its ripple effects connected planetary commercialized flows and proviso chains are inactive unfolding.
“This has led to heightened planetary uncertainties and concerns astir the prospects for planetary growth. Equity markets, connected the different hand, remained ebullient during overmuch of the twelvemonth connected Big Tech optimism, though concerns astir precocious valuations have, of late, fixed emergence to immoderate risk-off sentiments successful the equity markets,” they said.
Portfolio flows to emerging markets are besides witnessing a slowdown successful caller months, they highlighted:
They said India’s existent relationship shortage moderated successful Q2:2025-26 implicit the aforesaid play past year, supported by a little merchandise commercialized deficit, robust services exports, and beardown remittance receipts.
