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As a caller Middle East struggle risks sending lipid prices sharply higher, Saudi Arabia, Russia and six different cardinal members of the OPEC+ confederation are wide expected to denote an output summation Sunday (March 1, 2026), analysts say.
The virtual gathering by the 8 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied nations (OPEC+) known arsenic the "Voluntary Eight" (V8) comes a time aft the U.S. and Israel launched an ongoing question of strikes connected Iran.
Last year, the V8 radical -- comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman -- boosted accumulation by astir 2.9 cardinal barrels per time (bpd) successful full earlier announcing a three-month intermission successful output hikes.
Iran-Israel struggle LIVE updates
But present the representation has changed dramatically.
Even earlier the struggle erupted connected Saturday (February 28, 2026), the marketplace had already priced successful a increasing geopolitical hazard premium implicit months of U.S. subject build-up successful the region.
Brent, the planetary benchmark for crude oil, jumped much than 3% connected Friday (February 27, 2026) to commercialized implicit $73 per barrel, up from $61 astatine the opening of the year.
Several different developments person squeezed lipid proviso since aboriginal January, said UBS expert Giovanni Staunovo.
They see "cold upwind successful the U.S. crossed January (that) resulted successful temporarily accumulation shut-ins", "disruptions successful Russia" linked to drone attacks, arsenic good arsenic successful Kazakhstan, wherever "a powerfulness outage disrupted accumulation from the Tengiz lipid field", helium added.
That's why, adjacent earlier Saturday's (February 28, 2026) strikes, the marketplace was anticipating a quota summation of 137,000 barrels per day.
"These comparatively precocious prices are a bully inducement for OPEC+ to resume its accumulation increases" from April, Kpler expert Homayoun Falakshahi told AFP.
Before the weekend, Falakshahi said a U.S. onslaught connected Iran would not needfully change the OPEC+ decision, arsenic the radical mightiness similar to hold and measure the interaction connected flows earlier adding much lipid to the marketplace than antecedently planned.
Iran tensions
In the abbreviated term, the US onslaught volition apt trigger "a monolithic surge successful prices" with what follows depending connected however acold the struggle escalates, Mr. Falakshahi said.
The struggle could surely severely disrupt planetary lipid supplies and nonstop tube prices soaring to a level not seen successful years.
Iran is simply a important lipid producer, but the main hazard remains a prolonged blockade of the Straits of Hormuz, done which astir 20 cardinal barrels of crude walk each time -- astir 20% of planetary production.
And determination are virtually nary alternatives for crude transport.
Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE person pipeline networks, susceptible of carrying a maximum of 2.6 cardinal barrels per day, that let them to bypass the Straits of Hormuz, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
"That said, adjacent if strikes stay limited, we deliberation Brent crude lipid prices mightiness emergence to astir $80pb (around their highest during the 12-day warfare successful June 2025), from $73pb yesterday", wrote William Jackson, main emerging markets economist astatine Capital Economics.
But prices would emergence overmuch much if the struggle is simply a prolonged one, peculiarly if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for an extended period.
"That could origin lipid prices to jump, possibly to astir $100pb," said Mr. Jackson.
Limited impact
Even if OPEC+ agrees connected an output summation of 137,000 barrels per time connected Sunday (March 1, 2026), the interaction connected lipid prices volition beryllium limited, particularly since the hike would lone construe into an existent summation of 80,000 to 90,000 barrels, according to Kpler estimates.
"Spare capableness is overmuch smaller than immoderate perceive, and chiefly successful the hands of Saudi Arabia," Mr. Staunovo told AFP, adding that Russian accumulation had been "on a declining inclination implicit the past 2 months".
Boosting accumulation would nevertheless let OPEC+ members to regain marketplace stock successful the look of contention from different cardinal players specified arsenic the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana.
"OPEC+ would similar prices of $80-90, but astir $70 per tube is the perfect terms level for this strategy" due to the fact that it is "not capable to promote further concern by US producers but acceptable for OPEC+," Mr. Falakshahi said.
