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A further pick-up in request conditions witnessed successful October 2025 points towards a resilient growth outlook, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) officials wrote successful the November variation of RBI Bulletin released connected Monday.
They said contempt continued planetary headwinds, Indian system showed signs of a further prime up successful momentum.
“Available high-frequency indicators for October suggest a robust enlargement in both manufacturing and services activities, supported by festive play request and the ongoing affirmative interaction of the GST reforms,” they wrote successful the nonfiction ‘State of the Economy’.
Stating that header ostentation had moderated and fallen to a historical debased successful October and remained beneath the people rate, they said it was importantly helped by favourable supply-side factors, including the prospects of a bully kharif play and the simplification of GST rates.
Headline CPI inflation, moderated to 0.3% successful October 2025 from 1.4% in September. The autumn successful ostentation was driven by the deepening of deflation successful nutrient prices and interaction of the GST complaint chopped connected goods and services prices, amid large favourable basal effects, they wrote.
The deflation successful the nutrient radical deepened on account of a diminution successful the prices of vegetables, pulses and spices. Inflation successful sub-groups specified arsenic cereals, meat and fish, beverage and products, eggs, oils and fats, fruits, prepared meals, and non-alcoholic beverages moderated, they added.
“The outer sector’s capableness to sorb shocks has besides improved implicit time, gathering resilience amid global commercialized argumentation uncertainties,” they emphasised successful the article.
Pointing retired to the World Bank’s Financial Sector Assessment (FSA) study of October 2025, which highlighted a financial system increasing successful resilience and strength, they said the improved macroeconomic frameworks and outcomes had not only enhanced the quality of fiscal institutions to enactment the macroeconomy, but besides allowed the Reserve Bank to amended calibrate regulatory measures, amended the ratio of fiscal intermediation, and augment the travel of recognition to the broader economy.
The fiscal, monetary, and regulatory measures undertaken truthful acold this twelvemonth should pave the way for a virtuous rhythm of higher backstage investment, productivity, and growth, starring to long-term economic resilience, the officials wrote.
The officials said planetary uncertainty remained elevated, although October witnessed a flimsy pullback aft much than a year of continuous increase.
“Concerns persist astir the heightened exuberance successful planetary equity markets, raising questions astir its sustainability and its implications for fiscal stability,” they said.
They said fiscal marketplace volatility, which had moderated successful October, resurged successful November owed to concerns over stretched valuations successful AI stocks.
“In this context, concerns persist astir the heightened exuberance in planetary equity markets, raising questions astir its sustainability and the fiscal stableness implications of immoderate crisp correction,” they cautioned.
On the currency, they said the Indian rupee (INR) depreciated against the U.S. dollar, reflecting the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar pursuing the U.S. Fed’s policy announcement astir the extremity of the month.
“In mid October, however, the INR registered a little but sharp appreciation, supported by optimism implicit India-U.S. trade talks and renewed nett FPI inflows Consequently, rupee volatility accrued marginally during the month, though it remained relatively contained compared with astir large currencies,” they stated.
They said the Indian equity markets gained successful October and November arsenic optimism surrounding the India-U.S. trade deal and firm net for Q2 2025-26 offset the drag from the uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-China trade negotiations.
Domestic equity markets were also supported by a moderation successful crude lipid prices and a policy complaint chopped by the U.S. Federal Reserve, they said.
Realty, oil and gas, and telecom emerged arsenic the top-performing sectors during October. In equity markets, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continued to beryllium net buyers, portion overseas portfolio investors (FPIs) turned nett buyers successful October aft a signifier of three consecutive months, they added.
