Nitish Kumar: the constant and the variable of Bihar

5 se 30, phir se Nitish” (2025 to 2030, Nitish Again) declares. In mathematics, a changeless is simply a fixed value, portion a adaptable is 1 that changes. However, successful Bihar’s politics, Nitish Kumar is paradoxically some the changeless and the variable. In the past two-and-a-half decades, helium has taken oath arsenic Chief Minister 9 times — 7 times with the enactment of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and doubly with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Since November 2005, portion the creation of the Opposition successful the State has changed occasionally, Nitish has remained firmly successful the Chief Minister’s chair, barring a 278-day play erstwhile the station was occupied by Jitan Ram Majhi, who was incidentally picked by Nitish arsenic his proxy. Yet Nitish remains the astir unpredictable adaptable successful Bihar’s politics.

Through a bid of dizzying ideological realignments, helium has reinvented himself aggregate times. It is wide acknowledged successful Patna that the broadside helium aligns with gains a wide edge. He is the adaptable indispensable to balancing an equation, some arithmetically and politically.

These days, however, helium is making the headlines for a bid of gaffes, specified arsenic referring to Prime Minister Narendra Modi arsenic “Chief Minister”, scrutinising Modi’s inked finger, exhorting crowds to elite “4,000 MPs”, and referring to his party’s Rajya Sabha subordinate arsenic a Lok Sabha member. Videos of Nitish fidgeting during the National Anthem oregon touching a bureaucrat’s feet mistaking him for idiosyncratic other person gone viral.

These videos and remarks whitethorn concisely amuse societal media users, but they rise captious questions astir Nitish’s intelligence acuity. This cognition is further aided and abetted by unverified stories circulated by his governmental rivals and, astatine times, adjacent by his ain colleagues. Despite each this, neither the BJP wants to beryllium seen abandoning him up of the predetermination nor bash the rivals privation to marque immoderate idiosyncratic attacks connected him.

The BJP has gone retired of its mode to guarantee voters that Nitish is the main ministerial look of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Any BJP person saying different has been ticked off. Bihar Deputy Chief Minister and BJP person Vijay Kumar Sinha, portion speaking astatine an lawsuit to people the commencement day of erstwhile Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee connected December 25, 2024, said that a BJP-led authorities would beryllium a existent tribute to the precocious leader. However, the precise adjacent day, helium held a property league to contented a convoluted mentation for his remarks and pledged the BJP’s committedness to Nitish. The RJD has been arsenic careful. Tejashwi Yadav, the Leader of the Opposition successful the Bihar Assembly and de facto RJD president, adjacent portion excoriating Nitish, ensures that helium uses dignified language. He limits himself to saying, “This is the authorities of a bushed Chief Minister tally by retired bureaucrats.”

Nitish is lasting connected a pedestal helium has chiseled for himself implicit the years, covering his past failures and humiliations. His emergence has neither been swift nor sudden. He encountered decision astatine each step, often pushing him to see quitting politics. The opening Nitish Kumar came to Patna successful 1966 from Bakhtiyarpur, a mofussil town, to survey astatine the Patna Science College. He dabbled successful pupil authorities for a portion and joined the Samajwadi Yuvjan Sangh, the younker beforehand of Ram Manohar Lohia’s Samyukta Socialist Party. He aboriginal became a subordinate of the steering committee of the Chhatra Sangharsh Samiti, oregon Students’ Action Committee, of Jayaprakash Narayan (JP). While some Lalu Prasad and Ram Vilas Paswan person claimed that they contested the 1977 Lok Sabha predetermination from constituencies hand-picked for them by JP, Nitish could marque nary specified claim. He shared nary idiosyncratic equation with JP.

In the anti-Congress question of March 1977, galore young leaders from Bihar rode briskly to Parliament — galore of them Nitish’s aboriginal allies and adversaries. In the Assembly predetermination held successful October that aforesaid year, the Janata Party contested 311 seats and registered an emphatic majority, winning 214 seats successful the 324-member Bihar Assembly. Nitish contested connected Janata Party summons from Harnaut but mislaid by 5,895 votes — a notable decision amid a oversea of wins. He suffered from the fallout of the infamous Belchi massacre.

On May 27, 1977, eleven young men betwixt the ages of 17 and 25, 9 of them Dalits, were killed by members of the ascendant Kurmi community. The almighty Kurmi lobby expected the winning campaigner to guarantee that the perpetrators of the Belchi carnage faced nary consequences. Nitish, schooled successful socialist ideology, balked astatine the suggestion. The electorate rejected him for his ambiguity connected the issue. He suffered decision again successful the 1980 Assembly election, this clip astatine the hands of Arun Chaudhary, 1 of the main accused successful the Belchi massacre.

Nitish whitethorn person been signed by the fallout of the Belchi carnage, but for Indira Gandhi, it became a springboard for her instrumentality to powerfulness successful Delhi. In 1977, the Congress had been routed by the Janata Party. Her comeback began with a melodramatic sojourn to Belchi, erstwhile she rode an elephant to the distant colony to conscionable the families of the victims. The sojourn served arsenic an indictment of the Janata Party governments astatine the Centre and the State. Nitish yet won successful his 3rd effort successful 1985, securing the Harnaut Assembly spot by a borderline of 22,000 votes. Since then, helium has ne'er been without a spot successful the legislature. In 1989, helium contested the Lok Sabha predetermination from Barh and went connected to triumph the spot 5 times successful a row. A period aft Lalu Prasad was crowned the Chief Minister of Bihar, Nitish was appointed a inferior Minister successful the V.P. Singh authorities astatine the Centre.

Nitish and Lalu’s relation dates backmost to their assemblage days. As a pupil leader, Nitish avoided the spotlight and alternatively worked down the scenes. When Nitish was engaged drafting property releases and delivering them to paper offices, Lalu was making a sanction for himself arsenic a pupil leader. Unlike Lalu, who could sway crowds with his words, Nitish, though a bully speaker, was not precisely engaging. His oratory had substance, but helium lacked flourish and was often stiff and self-conscious. Nitish campaigned for Lalu erstwhile helium contested and won the station of president of the Patna University Students’ Union successful 1973. In 1989, helium erstwhile again assisted Lalu, helping him unafraid the station of Leader of the Opposition aft the decease of socialist person Karpoori Thakur, amid a profoundly divided Lok Dal successful the State. A twelvemonth later, Nitish was a cardinal advocator for Lalu successful the highly contested conflict wrong the Janata Dal for the Chief Minister’s post, propelling Lalu to the presumption for the archetypal clip successful March 1990. However, the enslaved broke wrong 2 years, and they were nary longer connected talking terms.

Nitish was disgusted with Lalu’s “dictatorial” ways and protested against the consolidation of powerfulness successful the hands of Yadavs. He fumed successful backstage but dithered implicit openly rebelling against Lalu. Nitish is not a earthy rebel. He ruminates implicit an contented until each thread is unraveled, and past helium chews implicit it for immoderate much time.

The differences with Lalu spilled retired into the unfastened lone successful 1994 astatine the Kurmi Chetna Rally, a level for the Kurmi rebellion against the Yadav domination nether Lalu’s leadership. The Kurmis, an agrarian caste, represent 2.87% of Bihar’s population, arsenic per the latest caste survey successful the State. Nitish did not articulation the signifier by choice. He was pushed towards it by colleagues who wanted a mascot for the anti-Lalu rebellion. Speaking astatine the rally successful Patna’s Gandhi Maidan, Nitish roared, “Bheekh nahin hissedari chahiye” (We question our rightful share, not charity). The last divided successful the Janata Dal came connected April 21, 1994, erstwhile a radical of 14 MPs formed the Samata Party. This travel excessively began with a setback for Nitish. In the 1995 Assembly election, Lalu secured 164 seats, his champion electoral show till date. The Samata Party was near successful a precarious condition, winning conscionable 7 seats. The enactment fielded 310 candidates, of which 271 mislaid their information deposit. Nitish was near to prime up the pieces of his shattered ego — an workout helium had go acquainted with. Pushed to the margins, Nitish recovered an state successful the BJP. They shared a communal extremity — to unseat Lalu. With Nitish’s backward caste basal and the BJP’s enactment among the guardant castes, the confederation had the indispensable numerical spot to enactment up a combat against Lalu.

Nitish’s secular outlook did not basal successful the mode of the coalition. He had antecedently protested against the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s anti-Babri Masjid run and endorsed L.K. Advani’s apprehension successful Bihar. The experimentation yielded contiguous results. In the 1996 Lok Sabha election, the BJP won 12 seats and the Samata Party six. It was this operation that elevated Nitish to the Chief Minister’s seat for the archetypal clip connected March 3, 2000. However, with lone 122 seats betwixt them, 2 abbreviated of the RJD’s tally of 124 seats, his authorities could past lone for 7 days.

A despondent Nitish returned to Delhi to retrieve from yet different blow. Victory yet came connected November 24, 2005. Nitish’s archetypal afloat word arsenic Chief Minister is considered transformational. He offered a refreshing blend of improvement and societal representation. He worked connected gathering some carnal and societal connections — constructing extended roadworthy networks portion besides reaching retired to communities hitherto excluded from the government’s payment programmes. Clearing infrastructure projects and organising Mahadalit sammelans (rallies) went manus successful hand. He introduced preservation for the backward sections among Muslims, launched targeted payment measures for backward communities, and announced 50% preservation for women successful section bodies. These moves were seen arsenic a leap guardant from the notional empowerment associated with his predecessor. He is simply a maverick who looked beyond the accepted caste lines to curate for himself a constituency of the Extremely Backward Classes, which is the largest caste grouping successful the State, accounting for 36.01% of the population.

The grouping has 130 groups and sub-groups scattered crossed the State. Despite their corporate strength, the EBCs person for a agelong clip remained politically and socially divided. Nitish’s idiosyncratic governmental fortunes and the electoral trajectory of the Janata Dal(U), which was formed pursuing the merger of the Samata Party with the Sharad Yadav faction of the Janata Dal and the Lok Shakti party, person followed divergent paths. Despite the JD(U)’s diminishing tally implicit the years, Nitish has continued to clasp connected to the Chief Minister’s post. The past clip the JD(U) emerged arsenic the azygous largest enactment successful the Bihar Assembly was successful 2010, erstwhile it won 115 seats successful an predetermination seen arsenic a referendum connected Nitish’s governance. However, since then, the State medication has dilatory slipped backmost into the morass of neglect and corruption. In the 2020 Assembly election, the JD(U) was reduced to 43 seats, slipping to 3rd place, a effect shaped by the increasing disenchantment among voters and machinations by allies to unseat Nitish.

The Lok Janshakti Party, a subordinate of the NDA, struck retired connected its ain successful 2020 and straight targeted Nitish utilizing the slogan “Modi se bair nahin, Nitish teri khair nahin” (No enmity with Modi, but Nitish, you won’t beryllium spared). The LJP contested 135 seats. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, Nitish erstwhile again proved his critics wrong, with the JD(U) winning 12 of the 16 seats it contested. “The societal basal that Nitish Kumar created successful his archetypal term, reaching retired to the marginalised among the backward and Dalit communities and women, inactive holds strong,” Manindra Nath Thakur, a Professor astatine the Centre for Political Studies astatine Jawaharlal Nehru University, says.

Nitish’s ideological elasticity has helped him nullify elector fatigue. His twists and turns whitethorn look whimsical, but they are guided by his conscience and governmental expediency. In 2013, helium publically repudiated Narendra Modi aft the BJP appointed him run committee chief. He severed his 17-yearlong confederation with the BJP and aligned with Lalu successful 2015 — the precise idiosyncratic helium had spent years to oust. However, helium was backmost with the NDA wrong 2 years aft corruption allegations surfaced against his lawman and RJD person Tejashwi Yadav. “My determination to discontinue was taken successful the involvement of Bihar. We had the mandate to service the people, not 1 family,” Nitish explained.

Secularism, helium said, should not beryllium utilized to warrant corruption and vowed not to marque the mistake again. And yet successful 2022, helium did conscionable that, returning to the Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) and appointing Tejashwi arsenic his lawman erstwhile again. “I person thing overmuch to accidental connected however suffocated we felt successful the NDA …,” helium said aft submitting his resignation to the Governor., stepping down arsenic the coalition’s Chief minister. Announcing the party’s divided with the BJP, JD(U) president and Nitish loyalist Rajiv Ranjan Singh, amended known arsenic Lalan Singh, claimed that the BJP was trying to replicate the Maharashtra exemplary successful Bihar by trying to interruption the JD(U) from within.

The 2024 power

But this unsocial does not wholly explicate Nitish’s decision. In his twilight years, helium was acceptable to permission his favourite playground to research an uncertain future, driven by his condemnation that the BJP could beryllium defeated successful the 2024 Lok Sabha election. He saw a anticipation of taking a nationalist role, expecting to usher the Opposition backmost to power. He worked towards the operation of a conjugation of the willing, a radical agreed by its tendency to unseat Modi. He made respective trips to Delhi, gathering Opposition leaders, advocating “Opposition unity for the greater bully of the nation”, and selling it arsenic the elixir to support the Indian ideology alive. He arranged for them to travel together, and astatine a gathering hosted by him successful Patna successful July 2023, the Indian National Developmental, Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) was born. However, by the 3rd gathering of the recently formed coalition, Nitish could consciousness that the commanding perch helium was seeking wrong the confederation would elude him. He expected that helium would beryllium made the convener of the INDIA bloc, but the Opposition parties, particularly the Congress, felt that granting him specified a relation would indirectly marque him their premier ministerial candidate, a tag that they were not consenting to portion with. Opposition leaders aboriginal acknowledged that had helium been offered the station of convener — bringing him look to look with Modi arsenic his cardinal challenger — Nitish would apt person stayed on. However, nary specified presumption of enactment was offered. In January 2024, conscionable months earlier the Lok Sabha election, helium returned to the NDA. His appraisal was not wholly wrong. The BJP, which secured 303 seats successful 2019, was reduced to 240 seats successful 2024.

The endurance of the existent Narendra Modi authorities depends connected the JD(U) and the Telegu Desam Party. For a antheral with Nitish’s governmental acumen, however, the developments pursuing the 2024 predetermination are inexplicable. In the archetypal gathering of the NDA aft the results, helium was seen touching Modi’s feet. He past went astir making concessions for the BJP that helium had resisted successful the past. The JD(U) settled for simply 2 berths successful the Union Council of Ministers, some considered “inconsequential” portfolios, without a murmur. JD(U) president Rajiv Ranjan was appointed Minister for Fisheries, Animal Husbandry and Dairying and Minister for Panchayati Raj, portion party’s Rajya Sabha subordinate Ramnath Thakur was made Minister of State for Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare.

This was successful crisp opposition to the party’s presumption successful 2019, erstwhile Nitish, arguing for “proportional representation” alternatively than “symbolic presence”, insisted that the JD(U) should get astatine slightest 4 berths since the BJP past had 5 Ministers from Bihar. It is, of course, different communicative that successful July 2021, Nitish’s erstwhile adjutant R.C.P. Singh, rebelling against him, secured a Cabinet berth for himself. Within a twelvemonth helium was forced retired of Modi’s Cabinet, aft the JD(U) refused to renominate him to the Rajya Sabha. Nitish and the JD(U) person gone retired of their mode to advertise their subservience to the BJP, nodding on with Modi’s each determination and showing enactment for each arguable Bill. A caller illustration is the Waqf (Amendment) Act, which allows for nonstop interference by the authorities successful the absorption of Waqf properties. Rajiv Ranjan emerged arsenic 1 of the astir vocal advocates of the Bill. Despite unit from assorted Muslim organisations successful Bihar, the JD(U) did not adjacent rise token objections. In his progressively uncommon nationalist appearances, Nitish has taken to asking the audience, “What was determination earlier 2005?” Invoking the past has go indispensable due to the fact that the contiguous does not look precise promising.

After 2 decades nether his rule, the State inactive stands connected a precipice. The caller caste survey has served arsenic a damning indictment of Bihar’s system and the questionable bequest of Nitish Kumar’s 20-year rule. Of the 2.97 crore households successful the State, 34.13 % past connected a monthly income of ₹6,000 oregon less. The poorness complaint is the highest among the Scheduled Castes (SCs) and the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs). Professor Thakur says that portion Nitish took the archetypal measurement by gathering infrastructure, helium failed to instrumentality the 2nd measurement of attracting backstage concern to the State. Both migration and unemployment proceed to beryllium precocious successful the State. “Bihar is surviving not due to the fact that of Nitish but connected the remittances sent by its migrant population,” helium says. A important information of Bihar’s Budget is spent connected servicing loans from the World Bank and different outer agencies. As per an investigation of the 2025- 26 Bihar Budget by PRS India, a non-profit organisation, the State’s lasting indebtedness is estimated to scope 37% of its GDP by the extremity of the 2025-26 fiscal year.

There is nary clarity connected Nitish’s successor too. “Who aft Nitish?” has go an oft-repeated question, with nary wide answers. On June 29 2024, the JD(U), astatine its nationalist enforcement gathering successful Delhi, appointed Rajya Sabha subordinate Sanjay Jha, a adjacent adjutant of Nitish, the party’s moving president, efficaciously making him the 2nd in-command. From July 2021 to December 2023, Rajiv Ranjan, arsenic the party’s nationalist president, held this post. However, neither Jha, a Brahmin, nor Rajiv Ranjan, a Bhumihar, tin beryllium seen arsenic claimants to pb a enactment that survives connected EBC votes. Rajiv Ranjan, successful particular, appears to beryllium retired of contention aft Nitish’s caller nationalist rebuke. At a nationalist gathering connected April 24, 2025, which was besides addressed by the Prime Minister, Nitish singled retired Rajiv Ranjan for the JD(U) breaking the confederation with the BJP-led NDA successful 2022 and joining hands with the RJD. This incidental has not gone down good with Rajiv Ranjan, and helium is reportedly upset with Nitish implicit the nationalist humiliation. Nitish’s comments are seen arsenic an articulation of the suspicion that Rajiv Ranjan is moving intimately with the RJD leadership. In the archetypal fewer months of 2025, Nitish’s son, Nishant, has besides made an appearance. Though helium has mostly stayed distant from politics, Nishant’s photographs person started appearing connected JD(U) posters. He has besides made nationalist statements. While helium satisfies the caste criteria and is not tainted by immoderate controversies, the 48-year-old engineering postgraduate is simply a governmental novice and has nary electoral experience.

There are galore successful the JD(U) who are hoping that the mantle would beryllium passed connected to them. At the forefront is Dalit person and Cabinet Minister Ashok Choudhary. A erstwhile Bihar Congress chief, helium has remained steadfastly loyal to Nitish since helium joined the JD(U) successful 2018. Nitish shares a lukewarm equation with Choudhary. He lavishly praises him and appears comfy successful his presence. Despite courting contention with a satirical poem connected Nitish’s advancing age, Choudhary, alternatively of getting a rap connected the knuckles, was promoted to the presumption of nationalist wide secretary. Anticipating the JD(U)’s downfall, some the RJD and the BJP person been positioning themselves to drawback the ballot slope that Nitish has cautiously nurtured implicit his agelong tenure. “The Extremely Backward Classes would not similar to spell with the forward-caste-dominated BJP oregon the Yadav-dominated RJD. Both parties person been trying to shed this image, but betwixt the two, the BJP has been much palmy successful doing so, by removing Brahmins and Bhumihars from topmost positions,” Professor Thakur says. Another circular of Assembly elections is conscionable astir the corner. While galore expect it to beryllium Nitish Kumar’s swansong, it is inactive excessively aboriginal to disregard him arsenic a spent force. Nitish has secured his spot successful history, giving Bihar the stableness it wasn’t utilized to. This election, however, volition determine however helium volition beryllium remembered — arsenic a person who changed the State’s destiny oregon conscionable different Chief Minister successful the agelong and winding conveyor loop of politics.