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A much-awaited caller GDP bid with the basal twelvemonth arsenic 2022-23 is present disposable successful the nationalist domain. On February 27, 2026, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation came retired with a property enactment connected a caller bid of GDP estimates and related aggregates for the fiscal years 2022-23, 2023-24 and 2024-25. This addresses the long-standing request for a much close and realistic representation of the size of the Indian system by updating the basal year. It overcomes the limitations of earlier estimates, which relied connected the outdated 2011–12 basal year.
The wide size of the Indian system successful presumption of GDP arsenic per the caller bid astatine existent prices (in rupees lakh crore) is estimated to beryllium 261.18 (financial twelvemonth 2022-23), 289.84 (FY 2023-24) and 318.07 (2024-25), respectively (first revised estimate). These aggregates are marginally (between 3% and 4%) little than what were released earlier based connected the erstwhile series. The comparative shares of primary, secondary and tertiary sectors successful full Gross Value Added (GVA) astatine existent prices during 2024-25 remained astatine 21.4%, 25.8% and 52.9%, respectively. The manufacturing assemblage depicts a precocious maturation complaint (more than 9%) successful existent GVA for some the years: 12.7% successful 2023-24 and 9.3% successful 2024-25. As regards the expenditure broadside estimates, the stock of backstage fiscal depletion expenditure successful GDP is astir 56%, some astatine existent and changeless prices during the years 2023-24 and 2024-25.
Major refinements successful the caller series
Some of the astir important refinements successful the methodology adopted successful the caller bid include: first, segregation of activities of multi-activity enterprises belonging to non-financial backstage firm assemblage by apportioning the full GVA of the endeavor crossed its concern activities utilizing the corresponding gross stock accusation of the institution disposable successful the signifier of MGT 7/7A information (as against full GVA being allocated to the large enactment of the endeavor successful 2011-12 series); second, usage of a abstracted blown up origin astatine the manufacture x size people level, based connected paid-up capital, for scaling up the GVA of the reported progressive companies to relationship for the publication of the progressive companies which did not record returns; third, a broad sum of Limited Liability Partnerships (LLPs) utilizing Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) data; and fourth, the usage of high-frequency (annual) information connected GVA per idiosyncratic (GVAPW) arsenic per the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) successful conjunction with the estimates of the fig of workers utilising the accusation disposable done Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) to estimation the GVA publication of the Household Sector. In this context, it is worthwhile to notation that successful the 2011-12 series, basal twelvemonth (2011-12) GVA estimates astatine the enactment level for the Household Sector were extrapolated utilizing suitable indicators to deduce GVA for consequent years.
The caller bid besides introduces important improvements successful the estimation of existent GVA done the expanded exertion of ‘double deflation’ and ‘volume extrapolation’ methods, bringing the estimates much successful enactment with planetary guidelines. In addition, the benchmark estimates for 2022–23 backstage last depletion expenditure (PFCE) are present derived much straight by utilising information from the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES 2022–23), particularly for items that are wide consumed crossed household groups and thin to grounds debased income elasticity.
The challenges ahead
Among the 4 organization sectors, namely, wide government, nationalist corporations, backstage corporations and households for which GVA estimates are separately computed and past aggregated, the database of the archetypal 2 sectors is rather robust. Coming to the backstage firm sector, peculiarly the backstage non-financial firm segment, for which GVA is compiled utilizing the MCA database — a captious contented lies successful allocating the national-level full GVA of companies crossed States to deduce the corresponding Gross State Value Added (GSVA), fixed that the superior information are disposable lone astatine the endeavor level.
In the 2011-12 series, full manufacturing GVA astatine the nationalist level was allocated proportionately implicit States by utilizing their shares successful GVA arsenic per the Annual Survey of Industries (ASI). In the caller series, isolated from ASI information (confining to manufacturing sector), the GST information is besides disposable for this purpose. A large regulation with the ASI information is the inadequacy of the ASI frame. To illustrate, the fig of companies successful 2011-12, arsenic connected December 15, 2014, arsenic per the MCA database classified nether ‘Manufacturing’ was 135,802 (source: Changes successful Methodology and Data Sources successful the New Series of National Accounts, Base Year 2011-12, Central Statistics Office, 2015) arsenic against lone 67,649 factories covered nether the firm assemblage successful ASI, 2011-12 (Table 7, Principal Characteristics by Type of Organisation successful ASI 2011-2012 (Revised)). Accordingly, the proportionate shares of antithetic States successful the full GVA derived from the ASI based connected a truncated framework whitethorn not bespeak the world and hence impact the State GDP figure. Remedial measures to amended the sampling framework of ASI by utilising the MCA and GST databases tin beryllium a measurement successful the close direction. In parallel, a decently designed illustration survey of progressive companies could beryllium worthy exploring to deduce the percent shares of antithetic States successful full GVA by the companies.
Resolving fluctuations
As regards the Household Sector, its GVA astatine the activity, i.e., ‘compilation category’ level successful the caller bid is derived arsenic the merchandise of GVAPW arsenic per the ASUSE and fig of workers based connected the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS). This necessitates that the corresponding estimates from the surveys are reasonably reliable. However, disposable results from the ASUSE bespeak a definite volatility successful the estimates crossed the years for immoderate industries and States.
For example, the all-India yearly estimates of GVAPW (rural and municipality combined) arsenic per the ASUSE (covering some household assemblage and ‘quasi-corporate’ units) for the years 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24 were recovered to beryllium ₹163,078; ₹255,447; and ₹201,930, respectively, for the ‘manufacture of rubber and integrative products’ which is simply a chiseled compilation class successful GDP calculations.
Similarly, the yearly estimates of GVAPW pertaining to the manufacturing manufacture successful respect of Bihar were recovered to beryllium ₹89,638; ₹117,021; and ₹100,101, respectively, for the 3 years. To code this problem, the methodology successful the caller bid recommends the usage of 3 years’ moving average, wherever necessary, but for the basal year. However, successful resolving the contented of specified fluctuations successful the yearly estimates of GVAPW, it whitethorn beryllium worthy exploring whether a rotating sheet plan successful the ASUSE with a important overlap successful the samples betwixt immoderate 2 consecutive years — akin to the process adopted successful the PLFS — tin output amended estimates.
Finally, to conclude, updating the ASI framework and refinements successful the survey methodology of ASUSE tin beryllium effectual successful further betterment of the GDP and GSDP estimates.
G.C. Manna is simply a prof astatine the Institute for Human Development, Senior Adviser astatine the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), and a Member of the Advisory Committee connected National Accounts Statistics. The views epxressed are personal
