Monsoon likely to set in over Kerala on June 4, says IMD in latest forecast

The southwest monsoon is present expected to beforehand into Kerala connected June 4, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said connected Tuesday (June 2, 2026).

This update comes aft the IMD, successful a connection connected May 29, acknowledged that the rainfall was improbable to scope Kerala wrong the four-day model of its forecasted day of May 26. The ‘normal’ day for the monsoon’s advent implicit the State was initially acceptable for June 1.

Last year, the monsoon acceptable successful implicit Kerala connected May 24 — its earliest accomplishment since 2009. Though the day of accomplishment does not correlate with the quantum of rainfall, the second is simply a origin of interest this twelvemonth with the IMD and different upwind agencies having warned of ‘below normal’ rainfall.

In its bulletin connected Monday (June 1, 2026), the IMD said: “Conditions are favourable for further beforehand of southwest monsoon into immoderate much parts of southwest & southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, immoderate parts of Kerala & Tamil Nadu, immoderate much parts of southwest, westcentral, eastcentral & northeast Bay of Bengal, and remaining parts of southeast Bay of Bengal during adjacent 2-3 days”

IMD’s operational forecasts of the day of monsoon onset implicit Kerala during the past 21 years (2005-2025) were proved to beryllium close but successful 2015, the bureau had said successful a information sheet. ‘Correct’ present means the monsoon arriving successful a model of 4 days of the forecast date.

This year, the bureau has besides lowered its forecast for the southwest monsoon to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), down from the 92% it had projected successful April.