With the 16th Finance Commission awards expected to beryllium made nationalist soon, Kerala is expecting a higher devolution of taxes and grants-in-aid, including gross shortage (RD) grant, from the Commission’s recommendations.
“The stock of Central Taxes is projected to turn astatine 53.80% successful anticipation of higher devolution from the 16th Finance Commission. Grant-in-aid is estimated astatine a higher broadside implicit the Revised Estimate for 2025-26 anticipating higher allocation of RD Grant,” the Medium Term Fiscal Policy (MTFP), tabled successful the State Assembly on with the Budget documents connected Thursday (January 29, 2026), said.
Finance Minister K.N. Balagopal had besides shared this anticipation astatine a post-Budget briefing successful Thiruvananthapuram connected Thursday.
As per the Budget Estimates for 2026-27, Union authorities transfers are projected to turn to ₹68,613.86 crore, with the stock of Central taxes and grants-in-aid respectively accounting for ₹42,114.32 crore and ₹26,499.54 crore. Kerala is besides expecting its Own Tax Revenue to summation to ₹94,002.47 crore and non-tax revenue, to ₹20,355.77 crore.
Own Tax Revenue
The Nominal Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) is projected to turn astatine 12% successful some 2027-28 and 2028-29, which comprises the guardant estimates period, according to the MTFP statement. State Own Tax Revenue is estimated to turn astatine 12% successful the guardant estimation period. Non-Tax Revenue is projected to turn astatine 9%.
The stock of Central taxes and grants-in-aid is besides estimated to turn astatine 10% and 5% respectively successful the guardant estimation period. Capital expenditure is projected to turn astatine 14% and 16% successful 2027-28 and 2028-29, excluding the superior spending by the Kerala Infrastructure Investment Fund Board and section bodies.

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