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In July 1977, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran, sent Lt. Gen. Hassan Toufanian, his Deputy Minister of War and Armaments, to Israel to clasp concealed talks with the recently formed Likud authorities of Menachem Begin. Three months earlier, the Shah had signed six ‘oil for arms’ contracts with Shimon Peres, the acting Prime Minister successful the erstwhile interim government. One of the contracts, code-named ‘Flower’, sought Israel to modify its precocious surface-to-surface missiles and merchantability them to Iran. Gen. Toufanian’s ngo was to guarantee that the alteration of authorities successful Israel would not impact the deal. He met Maj. Gen. Ezer Weizman, Defence Minister successful the Begin government, and some of them agreed to physique a subject co-production enactment — Israel was to supply the method know-how and Iran the finances and trial sites. As portion of it, Israel promised to proviso Iran with ballistic surface-to-surface missiles with a scope of 700 km that could transportation atomic warheads, writes writer Ronen Bergman successful his book, The Secret War with Iran.
But wrong 2 years, the narration had turned upside down. The Shah was toppled by nationwide protests. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, a starring Shia cleric, arrived successful Tehran successful February 1979 from exile successful Paris. Shia Islamists, nether Khomeini’s leadership, took implicit the reins of the state and turned it into an Islamic Republic — a semidemocratic, theocratic state. The caller Iran declared “liberation” of Jerusalem 1 of its cardinal objectives. At the U.S. Embassy successful Tehran, 66 Americans, including diplomats and civilian personnel, were taken hostage by revolutionaries. For revolutionary Iran, America, which had orchestrated the 1953 coup against nationalist Prime Minister Mohammed Mossaddegh and had been the main backer of the Shah, was the “great Satan”, portion Israel, the occupier of Palestine, was the “little Satan”.
The gyration did not conscionable alteration Iran; it was besides a geopolitical earthquake. If the Shah’s Iran had been 1 of the pillars of the U.S.-Israel alliance, Khomeini’s Iran emerged arsenic this alliance’s apical nemesis. Forty-seven years later, that enmity has escalated into a full-blown war, with Israel and the U.S. launching aerial strikes successful Iran and Tehran retaliating against Israel and American bases successful the region.
A caller rival
The Islamic Republic was calved successful a portion that was already witnessing caller currents successful Arab-Israeli relations. In 1978, Egypt became the archetypal Arab state to recognise Israel, successful instrumentality for the Sinai Peninsula which Israel had seized successful the 1967 War. Arab countries, though inactive supportive of the Palestinian cause, were moving distant from the signifier of confrontation with Israel. For Shia revolutionary Iran, its enactment for Palestine was not lone a spiritual work but besides a applicable overseas argumentation determination aimed astatine winning implicit the Muslim world, bridging the Shia-Sunni divide. Israel, which established accepted deterrence against Arab countries successful the region, saw a caller force emerging. The rivalry betwixt Israel and Iran has shaped West Asia’s geopolitics ever since.
With enactment from the U.S. and different Western partners, Israel, a nuclear-armed country, has emerged arsenic the astir almighty subject successful the region. On the different side, Iran, which faced American sanctions instantly aft the revolution, turned to gathering and supporting a web of militias. In the aboriginal 1980s, Iran helped make Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shia movement. And successful the 1990s, it doubled down connected its enactment for Hamas and the Islamic Jihad. When the Oslo process, which promised a two-state solution to the Palestine question, collapsed successful the second fractional of the 1990s, Hamas emerged arsenic a large pillar of the Palestinian resistance. This, successful turn, turned Iran into a cardinal subordinate successful the Israel-Palestine crisis.
In confederate Lebanon, Israel recovered it progressively hard to proceed its concern amid Hezbollah’s resistance. Iran provided money, grooming and weapons to Hezbollah done Syria, which was ruled by the Assad family. In 2000, aft 18 years of occupation, Israel was forced to retreat from confederate Lebanon, and Hezbollah claimed that it was the archetypal Arab unit to decision the Israeli army. In 2006, Israel attacked Lebanon again, but Hezbollah survived the month-long campaign.
Regional influence
This strategy of guardant defence appeared to beryllium moving in Iran’s favour successful the aboriginal 2000s. Look, for example, astatine the 2003 U.S. penetration of Iraq. Before the invasion, U.S. President George W. Bush had grouped Iran with Iraq and North Korea arsenic portion of an ‘Axis of Evil’. There was overmuch speculation that the Bush medication would crook to Iran erstwhile the Iraq warfare was over. But the autumn of Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi person who attacked Iran successful 1980, removed a captious buffer betwixt the Persian Gulf kingdoms and Iran.
When Iraq, a Shia-majority country, held elections aft the autumn of Saddam’s regime, Shia parties with humanities ties to Tehran emerged arsenic the caller ruling elite. When Iraq descended into a sectarian civilian warfare betwixt Sunni jihadists and Shia militias, the U.S. became profoundly entangled successful the conflict. Iran’s power stretched on the alleged Shia crescent, from Tehran, done Baghdad and Damascus each the mode to confederate Lebanon, connected Israel’s bluish border. At home, Iran besides precocious its atomic programme. But this ascent was short-lived. Arab Spring protests, which broke retired successful precocious 2010 and shook respective regimes successful the region, marked the opening of the diminution of Iran’s influence.
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The protests saw the profoundly entrenched regimes of Tunisia and Egypt collapse. In Libya, NATO made a subject involution against the authorities of Moammer Gaddafi. In Yemen, President Ali Abdullah Saleh had to resign amid sustained protests and a caller Saudi-nominated authorities took charge. The situation successful Yemen besides saw the emergence of Ansar Allah (Houthis), who captured Sanaa successful 2014, giving Iran nonstop power successful Saudi Arabia’s backyard. But successful Syria, protests against the authorities of President Bashar al-Assad threatened to chopped abbreviated Iran’s determination influence. Mr. Assad’s Syria was Iran’s lone determination authorities ally. It was besides a captious nexus betwixt Hezbollah and Tehran. If the authorities fell, it would chopped disconnected the link, weakening some Iran and Hezbollah.
Iran knew what was astatine stake, and it did not hesitate for a infinitesimal successful helping the Syrian government. Thousands of Hezbollah fighters crossed the borderline into Syria to combat alongside the authorities forces. Iran mobilised Shia fighters from crossed the portion and sent them to Syria. In September 2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to nonstop Russian peculiar forces and combatant jets to Syria successful defence of the government. With assistance from Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, the Assad authorities turned the tide of the civilian warfare and recaptured astir of the mislaid territory.
Sunni countries successful West Asia arsenic good arsenic their Western partners who initially called for Mr. Assad’s departure saw their argumentation backfiring aft the emergence of the Islamic State. The Islamic State practically erased the borderline betwixt Iraq and Syria and created a proto-state, stretching from Raqqa successful Syria to Mosul successful Iraq. For Iran, the Islamic State represented a two-way threat. Its emergence threatened to unravel 2 of Iran’s affable states successful West Asia — Iraq and Syria. Two, the extremist, sectarian Salafi-Jihadist ideology, which calls Shias “rejectionists” of faith, was an existential threat. At this point, Iran and the U.S. recovered communal crushed successful defeating the Islamic State.
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Nuclear deal
The astir contentious contented betwixt Iran and the U.S. was the former’s atomic programme. Iran had built a sprawling atomic infrastructure, but maintained that its programme was peaceful. Successive U.S. governments had imposed biting sanctions connected Tehran implicit the atomic programme. In 2013, the U.S., nether the Obama administration, started nonstop talks with Iran, aft Hassan Rouhani, a mean cleric, was elected President. In 2015, some sides, on with different satellite powers, agreed to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which sought to bounds Iran’s atomic programme, denying it a way towards the bomb, successful instrumentality for lifting planetary sanctions. Almost each powers successful the satellite welcomed the agreement, which was seen arsenic a caller section successful the hostile post-1979 relations betwixt the U.S. and Iran. Except 1 — Israel.
Mr. Obama went up with the woody and lifted sanctions connected Iran contempt Israel’s opposition. The reset seemed to beryllium working, particularly erstwhile the U.S. and Iranian sides started coordinating with each different successful the conflict against the Islamic State successful Iraq. But it did not past long. The antheral who succeeded Mr. Obama was Donald Trump, whom Mr. Netanyahu described arsenic the “greatest person of Israel”. The penning connected the partition was clear.
Mr. Trump termed the JCPOA the “worst deal” successful U.S. history. In May 2018, contempt UN confirmation that Iran was afloat compliant with the presumption of the agreement, Mr. Trump withdrew the U.S. from the statement and reimposed sanctions connected Iran, taking Iran-U.S. ties backmost to the pre-Obama epoch of hostility. After the U.S. imposed sanctions, Iran started enriching uranium to higher than the permissible limits. Israel, connected its part, carried retired a big of covert operations wrong Iran, including the killings of the country’s apical atomic scientists.
June war
Mr. Trump wanted concessions from Iran connected its weapons programmes and determination activism (support for non-state actors). But Iran took a ‘maximum resistance’ argumentation to Mr. Trump’s maximum unit — it carried retired attacks successful Saudi Arabia and successful the Gulf waters, stepped up enactment for its proxies, particularly the Houthis successful Yemen. In January 2020, the U.S. assassinated Qassem Soleimani, a charismatic Iranian General who oversaw the IRGC’s outer operations. It was a monolithic stroke to Iran. Tehran responded by attacking an American basal successful Iraq, but the situation blew implicit arsenic some sides did not privation an all-out war. What would alteration that dynamic was the October 7, 2023 Hamas onslaught connected Israel and the consequent developments successful the region.
Israel declared 2 superior objectives — the demolition of Hamas and the merchandise of the 251 hostages taken connected October 7. But the mode it fought the warfare suggests that it has deeper ambitions. For Israel, Hamas was lone the extremity of the iceberg. Its existent force was Iran. After October 7, Israel saw an opening to wage a two-front warfare — the archetypal was to crush Palestinian absorption erstwhile and for all, and the 2nd was to dismantle Iran’s axis and weaken its determination influence. Prime Minister Netanyahu wanted to physique a unipolar West Asia, with Israel, backed by the U.S., being the cardinal information player; rotation backmost Iran; support Arab countries nether check; and propulsion the Palestinian question backmost to the margins of the region.
In Syria, the illness of the Bashar al-Assad authorities successful December 2024, and the emergence of Abu Mohammed al-Golani (Ahmed al-Sharaa), a erstwhile al-Qaeda jihadist, marked a tactical triumph for Israel. A weakened Hezbollah was further isolated, and Iran’s guardant defence abruptly looked porous. Iran laic susceptible to outer threats. Then it was lone a substance of clip earlier a nonstop onslaught against Iran. Sensing danger, Iran started indirect talks with the Trump administration. Iran’s connection was that it was acceptable to chopped a woody implicit its atomic programme. Its governmental and information leaders repeatedly said it was not seeking to physique a atomic bomb. But connected June 13, 2 days up of the planned sixth circular of talks betwixt Washington and Tehran, Israel started bombing Iran. A fewer days later, the U.S. joined the war, attacking Iran’s cardinal atomic facilities. After 12 days of fighting, some sides agreed to a ceasefire. Mr. Trump claimed that helium had “obliterated” Iran’s atomic programme and Mr. Netanyahu declared a “historic victory”. But the situation was acold from over.
Israel wants Iran to springiness up its atomic programme, extremity its rocket accumulation and halt supporting non-state militias successful the region. In different words, Israel wants Iran’s full disarmament. Iran was unfastened to a woody connected its atomic programme but would not sermon different issues. The Trump administration’s officials, including Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, besides backed the Israeli demands, saying Iran should speech astir issues beyond its atomic programme. This led to cardinal disagreements successful diplomacy. The lone mode Israel could conscionable these objectives is by bringing astir authorities alteration successful Tehran and installing a caller puppet regime.
Road to chaos
In January 2026, erstwhile protests broke retired successful Iran implicit a falling currency, Mr. Trump rapidly offered his enactment for the protesters. He said the U.S. was “locked and loaded”. Protests and riots dispersed crossed Iranian provinces successful the archetypal fractional of January. Iranian authorities blamed overseas agents for triggering “riots and terrorism”. Mossad, Israel’s quality unit, besides claimed that its agents were “on the field” successful Iran. On January 8-9, Iranian authorities crushed the rebellion. At slightest 3,000 radical were killed. A tense calm prevailed successful Iran aft the crackdown, but outer threats mounted.
Mr. Trump started gathering America’s largest subject beingness successful the portion since the 2003 Iraq war, portion diplomats from some sides met astatine slightest 3 times. Iran claimed advancement aft each time, but the U.S. said gaps remained. On February 28, Oman’s Foreign Minister Hamad Al Busaidi told CBC that a woody was wrong reach. He said Iran agreed not to marque a atomic limb and not to stockpile atomic material. “If the eventual nonsubjective is to guarantee everlastingly that Iran cannot person a atomic bomb, I deliberation we person cracked that occupation done these negotiations by agreeing [on] a precise important breakthrough that has ne'er been achieved anytime before,” Al Busaidi said.
A fewer hours later, Israel and the U.S. started bombing Iran, targeting the country’s apical enactment arsenic good arsenic authorities and subject installations. Israel called it a “pre-emptive strike” and said it “would proceed arsenic agelong arsenic necessary”. Mr. Trump, indicating that authorities alteration was his goal, told Iranians: “The hr of your state is astatine hand”. Iran, which rapidly retaliated by firing ballistic missiles astatine Israel and astatine slightest 5 American bases successful the region, said, “This is simply a nationalist conflict imposed connected us”. This attack, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said, “could people the opening of the extremity for planetary institutions and norms.” America and Israel question authorities alteration and a imperishable displacement successful the equilibrium of powerfulness successful West Asia. For the Islamic Republic, this is simply a warfare of survival.
