3 months ago
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Despite each the fanfare and furore successful Parliament, it whitethorn beryllium premature to observe oregon criticise the India-United States Bilateral Trade Agreement, simply due to the fact that it has not yet been forged. Yet, past week’s announcement of a “Framework for an Interim Agreement connected reciprocal trade” (where the statement itself is expected to beryllium announced successful the adjacent fewer weeks), follows a process and a way that should beryllium disquieting for all. While the baseline nonsubjective for the Narendra Modi authorities indispensable beryllium to heighten the Indian economy, and easiness the unbearable load that the U.S. Trump medication had imposed connected it done 50% tariffs, the question it indispensable inquire is this: how, and astatine what cost? The Indian authorities indispensable see if this volition beryllium the template for each different India-U.S. agreements, strategic, economical oregon defence successful the future.
America’s unilateral announcements
Every announcement connected the woody frankincense acold has been made by Washington unilaterally, with New Delhi racing to play catch-up. The archetypal motion that the 2 countries had agreed connected going up with negotiations that began successful February 2025 came from a societal media station by U.S. President Donald Trump connected February 2, 2026. In it, helium furnished respective details of his speech with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, each of which were incorporated into the Joint Statement and Executive Orders issued connected February 6 — claims that Mr. Modi agreed to halt buying Russian oil, and to bargain “much more” lipid from the U.S.; that India would trim tariffs and non-tariff barriers against the U.S. to “Zero” successful instrumentality for 18% U.S. tariffs connected Indian goods, and that Mr. Modi committed to “buy American” products to the tune of $500 billion.
Mr. Modi’s station that followed lone divulged that the U.S. tariffs would beryllium reduced. Four days aboriginal (U.S. time, 4 a.m.), Washington released the associated connection and 2 enforcement orders, connected Russia and Iran, and subsequently a “Fact Sheet”. The Press Information Bureau released the associated connection a fewer hours later. The authorities has since refused to prosecute with the different documents successful its nationalist comments. But the full mode of bringing retired a “joint statement” unilaterally, begs this question. Who is calling the shots?
The nuts and bolts of the eventual commercialized authorities being discussed, which includes tariffs, non-tariff barriers and marketplace entree tin beryllium considered astatine a aboriginal day erstwhile India and the U.S. really motion the “interim agreement” connected trade, arsenic they are expected to adjacent month. However, the concessions fixed successful bid to unafraid the interim statement are acceptable retired clearly, and are a large origin for concern. While the Ministry of External Affairs and Commerce and Industries Ministry person sought to abstracted the commercialized statement from Mr. Trump’s Executive Orders pertaining to Russian oil, they are successful information portion of the aforesaid raft. Mr. Trump’s Truth Social post, the documents released connected February 6, and the White House Fact Sheet issued connected February 10 each contiguous them together.
The U.S. makes it wide that it rescinded 25% punitive tariffs connected India (imposed successful August 2025), nether 3 understandings: that India would halt buying Russian oil; that it had already begun to bash so, and that the U.S. would enforce tariffs again if India were to resume Russian lipid supplies. Mr. Trump has adjacent acceptable up a sheet of his apical officials to show India’s lipid intake. What is possibly adjacent much astonishing is that the bid states that India has agreed to “align sufficiently with the United States connected nationalist security, overseas policy, and economical matters”.
The Indian authorities has not truthful acold denied immoderate of these claims, alternatively issuing agelong statements outlining India’s vigor sourcing priorities and the request to diversify its proviso sources On the ground, the trends are clear: India’s imports of Russian lipid person been reducing since November 2025, and lipid purchases successful December 2025 crashed to 38-month lows. From 40% of its lipid intake successful 2024, Russia present accounts for 25%.
Contrary to External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s assertion that India would enactment inexpensive lipid for its consumers astatine the highest priority, and his Ministry’s characterisation of the U.S.’s punitive tariffs arsenic “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable”, India is present buying little Russian oil, conscionable arsenic the discounts connected it get larger. Other concessions, specified arsenic the zeroing of tariffs successful respective sectors, and the committedness to bargain American goods worthy $500 cardinal necessitate further scrutiny. Buying U.S. goods successful specified ample volumes would permission constricted abstraction for imports from different trading partners, and offering Washington presumption not extended to countries that person lone precocious concluded commercialized agreements with India. These see the European Union, the European Free Trade Association, and New Zealand and would apt punctual questions from them.
Needless to say, the processing world, oregon the Global South, that erstwhile cheered India’s refusal to backmost down successful the look of non-United Nations, unilateral sanctions, volition beryllium watching closely. As a result, knowing the U.S. deal’s interaction connected India’s diplomatic lasting among different nations is besides vital.
A signifier of U.S. demands
Should India judge the U.S.’s ultimatums to halt Russian lipid imports, it would reflector its 2019 attack of compliance connected giving up Iranian and Venezuelan lipid — resisting astatine archetypal earlier yet yielding to U.S. unit months later. The U.S. is present pushing for India to bargain American and American-controlled Venezuelan oil, for India to springiness up the Chabahar larboard task and each commercialized with Iran.
If New Delhi agrees to each these, it volition not lone suffer respect and goodwill with the countries successful question (where India had promised to summation commercialized and investment) but besides its credibility arsenic a purchaser and supplier successful the marketplace worldwide. This could beryllium peculiarly awkward for India arsenic it prepares to big this year’s BRICS summit, with the leaders of Russia, Iran and different developing-world partners expected to attend.
The adjacent question New Delhi indispensable inquire itself is this. If the lone mode to bash concern with the U.S. involves the acceptance of “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable” measures specified arsenic tariffs, past what does this mean for strategical relations with the U.S.? Will each statement connected strategical ties, including connected defence deals, subject alignment, the Quad (India, Australia, Japan, the U.S.) and the Indo-Pacific, counter-terrorism and India’s neighbourhood travel this pattern? Not lone person the U.S.’s deals with Pakistan and Bangladesh underscored Washington’s constricted respect for India’s interests successful the neighbourhood, but its insistence that India extremity Russian lipid imports, curtail commercialized with Iran, and halt improvement of Chabahar would lone further payment China. It is worthy noting that India is the lone state that the U.S. imposed 25% punitive tariffs for Russian lipid on, portion China and Türkiye are among different large buyers. In 2022, Mr. Modi’s refusal to criticise Russia for the penetration of Ukraine publically was seen arsenic a compulsion of India’s ties with Russia — abandoning its principles of territorial integrity successful favour of pragmatism. In 2026, giving up Russian lipid arsenic a compulsion of India’s ties with the U.S. is neither principled, nor pragmatic.
India-U.S. commercialized deal: Piyush Goyal rejects claims India yielded to U.S. demands
On India’s standing
Finally, the repercussions of this woody could inflict the top harm connected India’s principles of strategical autonomy, multi-alignment and multipolarity, arsenic it would constrictive India’s options alternatively than diversify them — not conscionable successful vigor procurement, trade, and connectivity but besides successful its broader planetary relationships. In 2019, Mr. Modi announced that India had rejected the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), invoking “Mahatma Gandhi’s talisman test”, walking retired of a woody that his authorities had worked connected for 5 years, citing discomfiture with Chinese economical domination. Confronted with an statement that makes acold much egregious demands connected India’s sovereign choices, it would beryllium astonishing if the authorities did not taxable the U.S. woody to further scrutiny earlier finalising it.
