7 months ago
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RUSI has published a insubstantial (on December 12, 2025) saying, “Russia’s planetary customers for aerial defences should reassess the resilience of these systems to attacks, including cyberattacks, method compromise and disruption of resupply successful proviso chains”. What specifically does this mean for the S-400 which India has acquired?
If we absorption connected S-400, the archetypal happening to see is, what is the defence readying presumption that leads India to get this system? Primarily it is astir India’s quality to support itself from China. There is simply a secondary request to support India from Pakistan, but China is the superior threat. If we look astatine the Russian defence manufacture arsenic a whole, astatine the moment, astir 70% of instrumentality tooling is Chinese and (from) Russian defence concerns. Then if we look astatine the remainder of the instrumentality tools, they are mostly European, American oregon Japanese. Those are the instrumentality tools that execute the astir captious functions, let’s accidental the astir precise tools. Many of them were either acquired earlier the full-scale penetration (of Ukraine successful February 2022) oregon they person been procured done illicit finance. The ones that were acquired earlier 2022, galore of them are reaching the extremity of their warranty play by 2027 and truthful successful bid to support them, the Russians person to usage subterfuge to get much replacement parts and truthful on.
Now, a immense proportionality of those channels for obtaining replacement parts goes done China. To springiness you different example, the microelectronics that are successful S-400 usage PBC laminates which are manufactured by an American institution called Rogers. The Russians person tested Chinese alternatives successful lawsuit they can’t get clasp of this US materiel, successful which lawsuit determination is simply a simplification successful performance.
Now for Europe, the presumption is, “Okay, truthful if we chopped that off, determination would beryllium a tiny simplification successful show of S-400, but they would inactive nutrient it.” But for India, if the presumption is that India volition combat China, and that’s erstwhile it needs these systems, then, fixed that overmuch concern vulnerability connected the Russian broadside to China arsenic a captious enabler of each of these accumulation processes, however assured tin India beryllium that the Chinese volition let the Russians to resupply them? That is simply a strategical hazard with this system.
So, you’re saying it’s not conscionable the question of China perchance not being consenting to let Russia to resupply, but there’s besides a prime contented (with Chinese parts)?
Yes, determination is. So, the Russians look astatine import substitution options to support their proviso chains. So, their technicians instrumentality the existent constituent and they instrumentality alternate components that they deliberation could execute a akin task, usually Chinese ones. We person the laboratory tests that the Russians person performed. And what they show is precise clear, which is that successful some cases, determination is nary Chinese substitute, truthful determination isn’t an alternate constituent they tin source…. And successful immoderate cases, the strategy volition inactive function, but it volition conscionable it volition execute little capably.
Are these your arguments against India acquiring the S-500 system? Because determination was immoderate buzz astir that successful the Indian press.
My knowing is the Russians aren’t prepared to merchantability S-500 to India astatine this stage. But determination are different issues there. So, for example, the captious radars successful S-500 each trust connected beryllium oxide ceramics, which are produced by 1 institution called Kaz Ceramics, based successful Kazakhstan. If thing happens to that factory, past Russia’s quality to nutrient caller radar for the strategy volition beryllium critically compromised, which means that you are putting your ballistic rocket defence capableness successful rather a susceptible basket, if you were to trust connected S-500 arsenic the strategy to support you. In galore cases, I don’t deliberation this is needfully an statement for wherefore India should scrap each Russian equipment. It’s not astir that, due to the fact that India has a batch of Russian equipment. It has radical who cognize however to usage it and support it. It’s invested a batch successful these capabilities. And successful immoderate instances, determination isn’t an alternate connected offer.
Such arsenic (for) the S-400…
Yes …(India hasn’t) been offered Patriot (the U.S. manufactured Patriot surface-to-air rocket defence system), for example. You mightiness tally into each sorts of issues obtaining Patriot reloads, right? So determination are issues there.
The presumption connected which India makes itself babelike successful this mode request to beryllium looked astatine precise carefully. So, India astir apt wants to nutrient domestically and person exertion transfer; it astir apt wants to enactment retired however it tin guarantee the proviso chains to beryllium capable to nutrient it. If you look astatine P-800, which is the Bastion P, (it is a) rocket defence strategy for coastal defence that India acquired from the Russians initially but past did co-development to nutrient an Indian coastal defence rocket that tin occurrence from the Russian system. I would beryllium looking to enactment retired however India tin bash that. This has antecedently been framed arsenic a ‘Make successful India’ (initiative’) for the involvement of your (India’s) prosperity and concern development. Fine, but there’s really a cardinal information request to not beryllium exposed to what is rather a susceptible proviso chain.
There’s besides the question of whether determination is simply a like-for-like substitute for the S-400. It’s not conscionable a question of the Patriot not being connected offer…
So, it depends what you sprout them at, right? So successful the four-day warfare (i.e., the May 7-10 India-Pakistan conflict/ ‘Operation Sindoor’), India changeable a batch of S-400 interceptors astatine drones, which is simply a precise mediocre weapons match. You’re firing a precise expensive, scarce rocket astatine a precise inexpensive object. Everyone’s made this mistake. The Israelis utilized to sprout Patriot missiles astatine quadcopters (a UAV). But what that speaks to is the request to person a layered aerial defence strategy with due layers for the threats. And determination are substitutes for S-400 for immoderate of those layers. There are immoderate circumstantial areas wherever the S-400 is distinctly invaluable for India, tactical ballistic rocket defeat, for illustration (or) definite types of craft flying precocious altitude profiles. But if you tin constrictive your dependency connected S-400 for those peculiar targets wherever lone S-400 is the answer, past you’re going to usage acold less missiles. So, you trim your ain vulnerability. If you person to usage S-400 for everything, you’re going to tally retired of missiles, and the Russians aren’t going to beryllium capable to resupply you.
Around the caller sojourn of Russian President Vladimir Putin to India, determination was speech of Russia selling the Sukhoi 57 (Su-57) and Sukhoi 75 (Su-75) to India. The West and NATO countries, successful general, volition person a commercialized and strategic, political, involvement successful India not acquiring these craft from Russia. But purely from a capableness and method angle, you judge that this is not a bully enactment for India. Why?
On Su-57 and 35 and Su-34… firstly, Russian craft accumulation is besides exposed rather significantly. We published a study successful November which outlines the proviso concatenation vulnerabilities of Sukhoi production. It’s besides significant.
More importantly for India, however, the biggest occupation the Indian Air Force has is craft availability and aviator grooming hours, due to the fact that you person 7 antithetic fleets which is unimaginably inefficient, immoderate of them very, precise old. And if India wants to. maximize the effectiveness of its aerial force, it needs to consolidate the fig of fleets that it operates to less fleets.
If you enactment Su-57 against Rafale, they’re comparably capable. It volition travel down to what munitions they have, the grooming of the pilots, that benignant of thing, to find which craft is much capable. But if you person Rafale already, the thought of besides buying Su-57 is you’ll extremity up with 2 fleets that are smaller arsenic a result, and the Air Force volition beryllium little capable. From the Russian constituent of view, they privation idiosyncratic to money the program, due to the fact that different they can’t money it. So they’re precise funny successful you [India] buying them.
On the taxable of Vladimir Putin’s sojourn to India...
I deliberation determination was a tendency connected the Russian broadside to amusement that Russia is not isolated, it inactive has allies and friends, and this is simply a connection that they’ve ever wanted to push. India has been a precise important portion of that. The Russians person issues with selling lipid and the presumption nether which lipid is sold.
Therefore, it’s an important narration for the Russians, due to the fact that it accounts for a batch of revenue. And truthful the Russian intent was clear. And past the Russians privation to unafraid agelong word income for their defence industry, due to the fact that they person enactment their defence companies into 8 to 10 years of indebtedness and forced them to put their ain wealth into expanding accumulation capacity, erstwhile they tin lone marque 2.8% nett selling to the Russian authorities during the war. So, they request customers aft the war. Otherwise, a batch of these businesses are going to illness and the Russians endure an economical shock. So, the Russians are trying to laic this instauration to unafraid their system and their subject concern base.
On the Indian side, I deliberation the authorities volition person wanted to connection the Americans and others, that, ‘we person these relationships’, that they’re important and that ‘we person options’ and that ‘you can’t conscionable coerce us’. But astatine the aforesaid time, determination wasn’t a large nationalist announcement astir weapons and truthful on. I deliberation determination astir apt were much substantive conversations held successful backstage but not announced. And I fishy that is due to the fact that officials didn’t privation to antagonize the U.S.
If the Russia-Ukraine warfare were to extremity would extremity soon, accidental wrong the adjacent 3 to six months…
I deliberation there’s a anticipation the warfare volition extremity successful the 2nd fractional of 2026.
Okay, truthful wrong the adjacent year. What does this mean successful presumption of Russia maintaining authorities of the creation capabilities of its defence systems and weapons wherever those presently exist, and processing those successful areas wherever they bash not exist? Because your papesr has offered immoderate praise for immoderate of Russia’s systems.
So, the Russians person go overmuch much susceptible implicit the people of the warfare due to the fact that they person had existent satellite engagements and, therefore, they person gathered existent satellite information and person utilized that to refine the show of their aerial defences, their physics warfare, their aircraft, their communications, …drones, successful particular. In immoderate areas, similar UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles), they’ve created caller capabilities that they didn’t person before.
At the aforesaid time, their adversaries person gathered a immense magnitude of information connected precisely however each these limb systems work…The Chinese person been doing the aforesaid to those Russian limb systems, and what we person seen is that, successful definite circumstances, the Ukrainians person utilized that cognition to compromise these systems precise effectively, truthful that they don’t execute arsenic they should.
So we person 2 stories. One is the baseline show of the systems has improved. When the Russians halt getting existent satellite data, that volition astir apt dilatory down, due to the fact that abruptly they’re utilizing simulated targets again and truthful on. But the fig of ways successful which you tin bypass that baseline show has besides increased, due to the fact that arsenic the adversary understands the quirks of however the strategy works, they tin exploit them.
You specifically mentioned that China volition person leverage connected Russia successful presumption of what it tin bash with its systems and truthful forth, arsenic a supplier of parts, and besides the (issue around) prime of the parts successful Russian systems. What are the different nonstop implications for India astatine the capableness and method level from Russia-China cooperation?
…I deliberation the situation for India is that its superior defence spouse Russia is overmuch little capable and is overmuch little interested, astatine this point, successful providing a firewall betwixt its method cooperations with India and its method practice with China, which poses challenges, due to the fact that the hazard is that the Chinese tin compromise Indian defence capableness anterior to a conflict.
Earlier, you expressed immoderate assurance that the Russia-Ukraine struggle mightiness extremity successful the 2nd fractional of 2026…
I said it’s possible. So, the Russians presently are saying they deliberation constructive negotiations tin commencement successful March oregon April. At the infinitesimal they are mounting up conditions wherever Ukraine is having to negociate furiously with the US. And past each clip thing is benignant of taken to the Russians astatine a moving level, they’re like, “Hmm...it’s interesting. We’ll person to sermon a fewer things.” And astatine Putin’s level, its, “Nah [no].”
Why? Because the Russians comprehend themselves to beryllium gaining much and much leverage done the trajectory of events connected the battlefield. So, the Russians deliberation that they tin get to the opening of summertime adjacent twelvemonth and they volition person acquired overmuch much leverage to enforce acold harsher presumption successful eventual talks. They privation to usage these talks to halt the US providing subject method assistance to the Ukrainians, and that again, increases their battlefield advantage. So, the Russian program is to settee then.
If we spell the different mode and we say, when, erstwhile mightiness the Russians commencement feeling pain? Well, if there’s systematic enactment against the shadiness fleet; if India stops buying their oil, if - you tin enactment the ‘ifs’ successful – if there’s capable leverage connected the Russians and they haven’t achieved their accelerated subject gains successful the archetypal fractional of adjacent year. Then the Russians are going to person to beryllium mobilizing reservists, alternatively than having volunteers, successful bid to make the replacements…the system astir apt looks successful recession. And so, the Russians mightiness beryllium prepared to instrumentality an connection which walks backmost immoderate of their much maximalist claims.
It’s not a guaranteed thing. I deliberation the U.S. administration’s tendency to get this done by Christmas oregon done by the extremity of [ U.S. President Donald] Trump’s archetypal twelvemonth successful bureau - these are arbitrary timelines.
You had mentioned earlier that you don’t needfully deliberation that India should halt the acquisition of Russian instrumentality altogether…
I deliberation India has a immense standard of demand, and that can’t needfully beryllium serviced elsewhere. There is besides a sunk cost. India has this equipment, and it knows however to run it, truthful it’s not that India should divest of each its Russian defence relationships, but I deliberation India needs to marque definite that it afloat understands both, not conscionable wherever thing comes from, but past the proviso concatenation that sits down that. How resilient is it? How exposed is it?
Because erstwhile you bargain defence materiel, and this is what Europe has found, precise painfully, during the full-scale penetration of Ukraine: if you don’t cognize what the 2nd and 3rd tier of the proviso concatenation is, you get into a conflict, you commencement spending money, and the institution that you’re giving wealth to can’t really get a merchandise backmost to you. That is however you extremity up having your defence assumptions undermined successful presumption of your capableness to prolong a conflict.
