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Hindu Dalit voters person agelong been an important ballot slope successful Indian elections, shaping enactment strategies, coalitions, and payment policies. Their choices power the outcomes of some nationalist and State level elections, yet their governmental alignment remains fluid. An investigation of Lok Sabha elections from 1996 to 2024, alongside caller State Assembly trends, uncover shifting loyalties, determination variation, and emerging competition.
In the 1990s, the Congress held a wide vantage among Hindu Dalits (Table 1). In 1996, it secured 34% of the vote, compared to 14% for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This pb continued successful 1998 and 1999, with Congress and its allies up of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The spread narrowed successful the 2000s but remained successful the Congress’s favour.
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A decisive displacement was noticeable during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, erstwhile the BJP doubled its standalone stock from 12% to 24%, and the NDA roseate from 15% to 30%, overtaking the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), which declined to 20%. By 2019, the NDA had consolidated its Dalit enactment basal further, reaching 41%. In 2024, the NDA slipped somewhat to 36%, portion the Congress-led INDIA bloc climbed to 32%, narrowing the gap. However, State-level patterns remained uneven. In the investigation that follows, BJP and Congress are utilized passim but it implies enactment either for the enactment unsocial oregon the enactment positive its confederation — depending connected however they contested (Table 2).
In Bihar, the BJP’s enactment among Dalits surged successful 2019 earlier declining successful 2024, portion the Congress rebounded implicit the aforesaid period. In Uttar Pradesh, enactment among the Dalits stayed comparatively unchangeable for the BJP, but the Congress made notable gains by 2024. Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan saw intimately fought contests, with leads alternating betwixt the BJP and the Congress crossed elections. Haryana, Jharkhand, and Uttarakhand moved markedly towards the Congress successful the astir caller elections. In West Bengal, the BJP’s 2019 gains were partially reversed by 2024, whereas Congress enactment declined sharply. In the south, Congress expanded successful Karnataka and Telangana, indicating that Dalit voting patterns are shaped much by State dynamics.
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State-level predetermination patterns
Dalit voting successful State Assembly elections often diverges from nationalist trends. In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP consolidated enactment aft 2017, aided by the Bahujan Samaj Party’s decline, portion the Congress remained acold down (Table 3).
Haryana witnessed swings: the Congress led successful 2014, but by 2024, the BJP made gains, though the Congress retained a flimsy edge. Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan remained favourable to the Congress, with the BJP trailing modestly. In Chhattisgarh, Dalit ballot leaned towards the Congress, though the BJP strengthened its presumption successful 2023. In Gujarat, the Congress led successful 2017 but mislaid crushed to the BJP and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) by 2022. Southern States item the relation of determination dynamics: the Congress expanded Dalit enactment successful Karnataka from 51% successful 2018 to 63% successful 2023, portion the BJP declined slightly. In Telangana, Congress gained, though the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) retained a important stock of Dalit votes. Overall, Dalit voting has shifted from Congress dominance to expanding BJP consolidation. By 2024, nary enactment commands unchallenged support. State-level alliances proceed to signifier outcomes alongside nationalist trends.
Sanjay Kumar is simply a prof and governmental analyst. Vibha Attri is simply a researcher with the Lokniti-CSDS. Views expressed are personal.
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