8 hours ago
1
The BJP’s triumph successful West Bengal has evoked beardown reactions crossed the governmental spectrum, ranging from celebratory acclaim to profound daze and disbelief. While the victors, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, person claimed this to beryllium an anti-incumbency mandate for change, the vanquished erstwhile Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has complained astir electoral manipulations and foul play. The information appears to prevarication determination successful between.
Twin impact: SIR & Polarisation
What stood retired successful West Bengal’s two-phase Assembly predetermination was the unprecedented elector turnout complaint of implicit 93%, compared with 82% successful the 2021 Assembly predetermination and 79% successful the 2024 Lok Sabha election. This 93% figure, seemingly the highest ever recorded successful a wide predetermination successful immoderate large Indian state, was inflated by a debased basal effect, arsenic the electorate had shrunk by astir 80 lakh aft the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls successful West Bengal.
The SIR workout commenced successful West Bengal, on with 11 different states and UTs, connected November 4, 2025. While it was initially scheduled to beryllium completed by January-end 2026, a caller criterion of “logical discrepancy” was introduced by the Election Commission of India (EC), lone successful West Bengal, to place and region much voters from the electoral rolls. This led to an extended process of hearings, judicial intervention, adjudication and yet an appellate tribunal process which continues till date, and is apt to proceed for respective years. Reportedly, implicit 34 lakh appeals are pending successful the appellate tribunals.
En masse deletion of electors connected an unprecedented scale, alongside a important fig of opaquely made additions, had a large interaction connected the rolls’ demographic composition. This appears to person decisively influenced the predetermination results, too important anti-incumbency and communal polarisation.
While the full fig of electors successful West Bengal fell from 7.34 crore successful 2021 to 6.81 crore successful 2026, the full valid votes accrued from astir 6.03 crore to 6.37 crore. Total votes polled successful favour of the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) fell from 2.89 crore successful 2021 to 2.60 crore successful 2026—a diminution of 29.5 lakh full votes. In contrast, the BJP’s full polled votes accrued by 63 lakh, from 2.29 crore successful 2021 to 2.92 crore successful 2026. The full votes and voteshare of the CPI(M) and the Congress remained broadly the aforesaid (Table 1).
The comparative magnitude of each constituent of the duplicate interaction of SIR and anti-incumbency-cum-polarisation tin lone beryllium understood successful presumption of the religious-demographic breakdown of SIR deletions. Since religio-demographic information connected electors is not maintained oregon published by the EC, this investigation has relied connected integer scrutiny of electoral rolls and deletion lists for the high-profile constituency of Bhabanipur, wherever BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari defeated Ms. Banerjee. Due to the lack of different reliable information from caller years, the 2011 colonisation census has been utilized for the calculation of projected colonisation of Muslims astatine districts and State levels.
Deletions nether SIR successful West Bengal occurred successful 3 phases, viz., enumeration; claims and objections; and adjudication. Out of the 58.2 lakh full ASDD (Absent, Shifted, Deceased, Duplicate) deletions successful the archetypal phase, 32 lakh were classified arsenic Absent oregon Shifted. Digital scrutiny of the ASDD lists revealed that astir 7.34 lakh (23%) retired of Absent oregon Shifted electors were Muslims. In the 27.16 lakh voters deleted aft adjudication, which were chiefly the “logical discrepancy” (LD) cases, astir 17.65 lakh (65%) were Muslims (Table 2).
Thus, retired of the full of 64.7 lakh State-wide aggregate SIR deletions, excluding deletions nether Deceased and Duplicate categories, implicit 25 lakh were Muslims, i.e., 38.6%, which is higher than their proportionality of 27% successful the colonisation arsenic per the 2011 Census.
Statewide SIR interaction analysis
An Assembly constituency-wise investigation of the interaction of 67.26 lakh full SIR alterations—defined arsenic the sum of the deletions nether Absent, Shifted and LD cases and the additions during SIR—was conducted by a squad of experts. Chart 1 shows the district-wise organisation of these SIR alterations, on with the district-wise shares of projected size of Muslim electors, calculated by applying the district-wise percent of Muslim colonisation arsenic reported successful the 2011 census. This yielded the estimated fig of Muslim electors to beryllium 1.77 crore (26%) successful the full electorate of 6.81 crore.
Chart 1 intelligibly shows that the fig of SIR alterations (deletions nether 3 categories and additions, arsenic explained earlier) were overmuch higher successful 12 districts with higher attraction of Muslims, namely North 24 Parganas, Kolkata, Murshidabad, South 24 Parganas, Howrah, Malda, Hoogly, Nadia, Purba Bardhaman, Paschim Bardhaman, Uttar Dinajpur and Birbhum. These 12, which accounted for implicit 84% of Muslim electors, besides accounted for implicit 80% of the SIR alterations.
As six of these districts bash not stock immoderate planetary borderline with Bangladesh, higher alterations nether SIR cannot beryllium easy explained successful presumption of suspected cross-border amerciable migrants. It alternatively seems that the full number colonisation successful Muslim concentrated districts were placed nether suspicion during the SIR process. This is corroborated by the findings of autarkic studies reported successful the mainstream media, which said that astatine slightest 37% of the full deletions nether SIR were Muslims.
AC-wise investigation of the results reveals that retired of the 207 seats won by the BJP successful 2026, the magnitude of SIR alterations exceeded the winning borderline of the BJP successful 82 seats. Of these, 70 were located successful the 12 Muslim concentrated districts. In 2021, BJP won lone 9 retired of these 82 ACs. In 2026, the SIR alterations look to person decisively influenced the electoral result successful these 82 ACs. In different words, it is not implausible that the BJP would person failed to unafraid a bulk successful the West Bengal Assembly predetermination without the interaction of SIR.
SIR interaction successful Bhabanipur
This signifier of disproportionate deletion of Muslim electors perchance influencing the results is evident successful Bhabanipur constituency, wherever integer scrutiny of polling station-wise ASDD lists and electoral rolls revealed that of the full 36,664 deletions nether Absent, Shifted and LD categories, 9,481 (26%) were Muslims (Table 2). This proportionality of 26% is notably higher than the 20% stock of Muslims successful Kolkata district’s colonisation successful 2011. These deletions of Muslim electors were highly concentrated successful Parts 1 to 112 (polling booths), falling nether Wards 63, 77 and 74 of the Kolkata Municipal Corporation, with precocious attraction of Muslim populations.
Moreover, portion Muslims accounted for 26% of deletions, they accounted for lone 19% (1,025) of the 5,408 additions to Bhabanipur’s electoral rolls.
AITC’s winning borderline implicit BJP successful Bhabanipur Assembly conception had already travel down from 58,835 successful the 2021 by-election, successful which Ms. Banerjee won with a ballot stock of 72%, to 8,297 successful the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
The nett deletion of Muslim electors (total deletions excluding additions) successful Bhabanipur AC during SIR was 8,456.
In the 2026 election, Bhabanipur recorded 5,524 much valid votes polled compared with the 2024, which is incidentally of a akin magnitude arsenic the full additions during SIR astatine 5408.
Between 2024 and 2026, votes secured by AITC dropped by 3,649 portion BJP’s votes accrued by 19,753 (Table 3).
Additionally, votes polled by CPI(M) dropped by 10,540 and those by each others reduced by 1,448 betwixt the 2 elections. It is apt that these votes went alternatively successful favour of the BJP successful 2026. However, specified a plaything successful favour of the BJP is improbable to person happened successful the constituency, if not for the SIR that reconfigured the demography.
This raises caller questions astir the intent and legitimacy of SIR, which merits redressal by the Supreme Court, to forestall recurrence successful different states. The inoperative and ineffectual appellate mechanics successful West Bengal needs to beryllium invigorated to guarantee justness for each those wrongfully deleted done opaque, discriminatory and arbitrary processes.
The EC should beryllium held accountable for conducting SIR successful a mode that not lone led to en masse disenfranchisement of genuine electors connected the eve of a wide election, but besides endangered the aboriginal of escaped and just elections successful the country, which is the cornerstone of parliamentary democracy. The EC indispensable people a broad statistical study of each SIR related information connected deletions, additions and modifications to the electoral rolls successful West Bengal, which are hitherto not officially reported, to facilitate further autarkic investigation and judicial scrutiny.
Prasenjit Bose is an economist. He heads the SIR Committee of the West Bengal Pradesh Congress Committee
