5 months ago
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The authorities alteration successful Bangladesh pursuing the 2024 uprising not lone unsettled its home governmental scenery but besides triggered strategical recalibrations crossed its neighbourhood. For India, the implications are profound. The 2 countries stock not conscionable contiguous territories, communal resources, transboundary rivers, and adjacent maritime zones, but besides radical bound by a shared inheritance of history, language, culture, and practices. This integrated interdependence has agelong been harnessed done amicable bilateral partnerships, astir notably during India’s engagement with Bangladesh’s erstwhile Awami League medication successful the past decade. Their narration was marked not lone by an expanding portfolio of practice but besides by the quality to navigate long-standing contentious issues without derailing the wide goodwill. Over the past decade, this concern fostered a consciousness of near-permanent amicability and created a beardown instauration for India’s overseas argumentation aspirations.
However, the fashionable uprising successful Bangladesh successful August 2024, the ousting of erstwhile Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, her consequent structure successful India, and the constitution of an interim authorities successful Dhaka brought this strategical continuity to a abrupt halt. Since then, India–Bangladesh relations person witnessed a disposable cooling, with implications crossed aggregate sectors of cooperation. Among these, connectivity — a cornerstone of bilateral engagement — has borne the brunt of diplomatic uncertainty. As a foundational assemblage that enables trade, mobility, people-to-people exchanges, and determination integration, connectivity tends to beryllium the astir susceptible to governmental tensions. In the existent climate, contempt undeniable geographic interdependencies, the aboriginal of India–Bangladesh connectivity hangs successful the balance.
As bilateral goodwill retreats, it becomes captious to analyse the factors that antecedently compelled some nations to heighten connectivity, and to measure however the existent governmental shifts successful Dhaka are present disrupting established frameworks, stalling ongoing initiatives, and injecting strategical hesitations into what was erstwhile considered a exemplary of subregional cooperation.
History of partition and world of geography
When the Indian subcontinent was partitioned, Bangladesh (erstwhile East Pakistan) was carved retired of its eastbound territories, leaving India’s Northeast landlocked. Before partition, commercialized and commerce of India’s Northeast with the remainder of the state utilized to walk done the territories of what is present Bangladesh. Even aft partition, obstruction and stream transit crossed the erstwhile East Pakistan continued until March 1965, when, arsenic a effect of the India-Pakistan War, each transit postulation was suspended.
Political differences betwixt the Governments of India and Pakistan overrode the age-old interdependencies, and it was lone aft East Pakistan became Bangladesh, nether a authorities favourably disposed towards India, that stream transit was restored successful 1972. Therefore, though geographical proximity creates geopolitical necessities for practice among countries, promoting bully bilateral ties is yet a diplomatic prime and is chiefly driven by an alignment of priorities betwixt the governments successful consideration. This strategical alignment betwixt India and Bangladesh was astir evident successful the past decade, successful the concern betwixt Prime Minister Narendra Modi and erstwhile Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, shaped chiefly by 4 cardinal factors.
Resolution of existing disputes betwixt India and Bangladesh: Although India had played a important relation successful securing Bangladesh’s independency successful 1971, the 2 countries continued to look disputes regarding their maritime and onshore boundaries. Eventually, the maritime bound quality was resolved successful 2014 by the Permanent Court of Arbitration, and successful the pursuing year, 2015, the onshore bound was settled done a bilateral agreement. The solution of these long-standing issues near a cleanable slate for the 2 governments to cooperate connected shared concerns and opportunities.
China’s increasing beingness successful the region: India was acutely alert of China’s increasing beingness successful the Indian Ocean Region, particularly successful its neighbouring countries and oceans, which New Delhi considered to beryllium its superior country of interest. Beijing had already established a beardown foothold successful Bangladesh done its investments crossed aggregate sectors, including trade, infrastructure development, and defence. India, therefore, realised the request to fortify its ties with its neighbouring countries to clasp its prominence successful the region. For Bangladesh, though China offered large infrastructure concern and economical leverage, it besides brought risks. Overreliance connected China could make semipermanent indebtedness dependency, and deeper subject ties could complicate Bangladesh’s traditionally neutral posture. India provided the cleanable alternate to equilibrium this over-dependence.
Political Legacy: Sheikh Hasina had inherited her father, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s, bequest of a favourable disposition towards India, which stemmed from India’s important relation successful Bangladesh’s Liberation War of 1971. Thereafter, Ms. Hasina had taken structure successful India for six years aft her father’s assassination successful 1975. With her astatine the helm, the Awami League people sought person ties with New Delhi, particularly arsenic it marked a departure from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party government’s overt thin towards Pakistan.
Capitalising interdependence: These factors collectively fostered a beardown argumentation convergence betwixt India and Bangladesh. The alignment was further reinforced by India’s strategical compulsions — peculiarly its troubled occidental beforehand with Pakistan — and the overseas argumentation priorities of the recently elected Indian authorities successful 2014. Following the illness of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Summit successful 2016, New Delhi intensified its absorption connected its eastbound neighbourhood. Under the frameworks of the ‘Act East’ and ‘Neighbourhood First’ policies, Bangladesh emerged arsenic India’s astir pivotal eastbound partner. Stronger ties with Dhaka bore the committedness of improved connectivity for the landlocked Northeast, granting casual entree to the Bay of Bengal, which would summation its opportunities for maritime commerce and economical prosperity.
India and Bangladesh stock a borderline of 4,096 km, of which 1,880 km runs on the Northeastern States of Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, and Mizoram. India’s Northeast is connected with the remainder of the state by a 22-km-wide agelong of onshore called the Chicken’s Neck, which passes done a hilly terrain with steep roads and aggregate hairpin bends. Due to unsocial geographic positioning, Bangladesh often provides the shortest way for transport betwixt India’s Northeast and the remainder of the country. For example, Agartala, the superior of Tripura, is 1,650 km from Kolkata via Shillong and Guwahati, whereas the region betwixt Agartala and Kolkata via Bangladesh is conscionable astir 350 km. Moreover, the region betwixt important cities of Bangladesh and Northeast India ranges betwixt 20-200 km. A well-connected and fast-developing Northeast would not lone boost India’s home improvement but besides assistance its overseas argumentation outreach to its different eastbound neighbours, namely Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar. Strong ties with Bangladesh would besides assistance guarantee amended practice successful managing accepted and non-conventional information threats. For example, 1 of Ms. Hasina’s earliest moves was to destruct anti-India insurgent groups who had recovered a haven successful Bangladesh.
Better connectivity with New Delhi offered Bangladesh a gateway to broader economical maturation arsenic the second is astir enclosed by Indian territory, often described arsenic ‘India locked’. Subsequently, India emerged arsenic Bangladesh’s second-largest trading partner. India’s investments successful Bangladesh’s developmental infrastructure helped the Muslim-majority state amended its economy, and the usage of India’s logistical facilities aided Dhaka’s export-driven economy, particularly the ready-made garment (RMG) industry.
Under Ms. Hasina, Bangladesh sought to play a much salient relation successful determination forums, specified arsenic the “Bay of Bengal Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation” (BIMSTEC), aligning with India’s initiatives for sub-regional connectivity and integration. Due to these factors, the inherent interdependence betwixt India and Bangladesh, which had antecedently been overlooked owed to governmental differences, was leveraged for communal progress. Consequently, foremost among the areas of practice betwixt the 2 countries was connectivity.
Retracing humanities conduits and constructing caller channels
Accordingly, implicit the decade-long concern betwixt the 2 countries (from 2014 – until the mediate of 2024), a play that came to beryllium known arsenic the “Golden Chapter” oregon the Shonali Odhyay successful India-Bangladesh ties, aggregate connectivity initiatives were undertaken and enhanced to capitalise connected the interdependencies and reap communal rewards.
Rail links: Among the latest developments, successful 2022, the Mitali Express began operations, moving bi-weekly from New Jalpaiguri successful bluish West Bengal to Dhaka, Bangladesh. This explicit serves arsenic the 3rd rider bid aft the Bandhan Express, moving doubly a week betwixt Khulna and Kolkata, and the Maitree Express, operating 5 times a week betwixt Dhaka and Kolkata. These bid services supply an affordable and reliable means of proscription betwixt India and Bangladesh, boosting bilateral commercialized and the tourism industry. The Mitali Express, particularly, provided entree for Bangladeshi tourists to favoured Indian destinations specified arsenic Darjeeling, Dooars, and Sikkim. In 2023, the Akhaura-Agartala cross-border obstruction nexus was launched to trim the travelling clip and region betwixt India’s Northeast and Kolkata, bypassing the Siliguri Corridor. The way is successful place, and freight trials took spot successful September 2023; however, customs facilities, platforms, and entree roads stay unfinished. In February 2025, freight bid services betwixt India and Bangladesh resumed aft being suspended for astir 9 months, but rider services stay stalled indefinitely.
Roadways: India and Bangladesh are connected done aggregate roadworthy links. Recent among them is the Maitri Setu — a 1.9 km agelong span implicit the Feni River, joining Sabroom, the southernmost constituent of Tripura, India, with Ramgarh successful Bangladesh. While the Maitri Setu was inaugurated successful 2021, the onshore larboard astatine Sabroom was nearing completion successful June 2024. Passenger transport was scheduled to commencement on this way successful September 2024, followed by the question of goods. This would facilitate people’s question from Cox’s Bazaar oregon the Chittagong Hill Tracts to Tripura, and assistance the transport of goods from Tripura to the Chattogram Port, which lies astatine a region of lone 80 km from Sabroom. If functional, the Maitri Setu would person created a transition for commercialized betwixt India’s Northeast and Southeast Asia. Connected with the Akhaura-Agartala obstruction link, the Maitri Setu would connection multi-modal connectivity to different parts of Bangladesh arsenic well. Its operations, however, stay stalled.
Inland waterways: As roadworthy and railway projects are costly and transportation biology impacts, the governments of some countries explored the viable enactment of utilising the maze of inland waterways connecting the Northeast with Bangladesh to ferry cargo and passengers. Some of the aged riverine routes betwixt India and Bangladesh person already been reactivated. Under the India-Bangladesh Protocol connected Inland Water Transit and Trade (PIWTT) — archetypal signed successful 1972, and past renewed successful 2025 with a clause for automatic renewal each 5 years — the 2 countries ferry goods utilizing specified waterways passing done some territories. The 2nd Addendum to the PIWTT, signed connected May 20, 2020, added 5 caller ports of telephone and 2 extended ports of telephone connected some the Indian and Bangladesh sides.
Connectivity done seaports: Post-partition, though India continued to usage the Chattogram Port, its entree was terminated during the 1965 Indo-Pakistan War. Since then, it has been keen to regain important entree to the larboard arsenic it is logistically much convenient to entree from the Northeast compared to the Kolkata Port, which tin lone beryllium reached via the Siliguri Corridor. For Bangladesh, allowing India entree to the Chattogram and Mongla ports via established multimodal channels not lone meant much concern but besides paved the mode for transit cargo to scope these ports from landlocked Nepal and Bhutan.
In 2015, India and Bangladesh signed the Agreement connected Coastal Shipping, enabling nonstop regular shipping betwixt ports connected India’s eastbound seashore and Bangladesh, peculiarly Chattogram. However, this statement is constricted to the question of India’s home cargo betwixt the Northeast and the remainder of India via Chattogram. It tin beryllium expanded to facilitate the question of third-country export-import cargo, particularly from and to India’s Northeast. In April 2022, Ms. Hasina offered greater usage of the Chattogram Port to India. Currently, India uses the transit and transhipment facilities of the Chattogram Port for the Northeast’s trade. In Mongla, India is financing the upgradation of Mongla Port via a concessional Line of Credit. India secured the operating rights to a terminal successful Mongla larboard successful June 2024. It besides funded the operation of the Khulna-Mongla Port obstruction link, connecting the larboard to the obstruction web successful Khulna. This task aimed to trim logistical hurdles and cargo proscription costs betwixt West Bengal and the Northeast . However, services person yet to statesman connected this route.
Connectivity initiatives request complementarities successful governance. However, the authorities alteration successful Bangladesh past twelvemonth and India’s strained ties with the caller interim authorities person had a straight detrimental interaction connected these connectivity projects. Trade, too, has dwindled.
Impact of the authorities alteration connected India-Bangladesh connectivity
The wide uprising successful Bangladesh successful August 2024, which led to Sheikh Hasina seeking refuge successful India and the enactment of an interim authorities successful Dhaka, halted the ongoing connectivity projects and the overarching bilateral cooperation. As the year-old interim medication grapples with economical and governmental instability, its overseas argumentation reveals a grade of ambivalence toward India amid its ongoing quest for home legitimacy. The ineligible validity of the interim authorities has been repeatedly questioned owed to a 2011 Constitutional Amendment Act that abolished the strategy of non-party caretaker governments successful Bangladesh. Although the High Court Division of the Bangladesh Supreme Court had precocious ‘partially annulled the Fifteenth Amendment to the Constitution and reinstated the non-partisan, neutral caretaker authorities system’, legalising the Yunus administration, it remains a non-elected authorities successful a state struggling to revive democracy. The regime’s superior root of fashionable enactment is the Anti-discrimination Student Movement, which nominated it to power.
Nationwide pupil protests that led to the ouster of the erstwhile Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, from Bangladesh had a chiseled anti-India chord, owed to New Delhi’s enactment for the Awami League administration. Accordingly, upon coming to power, the interim authorities led by Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus has been distancing itself from the Awami League’s bequest and affiliations successful its hunt for fashionable support. Reflecting the aforesaid attack successful its overseas policy, a region has besides crept into India-Bangladesh relations, with respective issues specified arsenic Ms. Hasina’s pending extradition from India and galore reports of attacks connected Hindu minorities successful Bangladesh deepening the rift. The caller interim government’s repeated attempts to pin blasted connected India for its home chaos and its marked attempts to fortify ties with Pakistan and China without information of India’s strategical sensitivities person further importantly undermined the once-flourishing bilateral narration betwixt the 2 neighbours.
Thus, commercialized betwixt India and Bangladesh has reportedly declined since the authorities change, with borderline closures, issues with customs clearances, and accrued information surveillance hindering the creaseless travel of goods betwixt the 2 countries. Between April and October 2023, India’s exports to Bangladesh fell by 13.3% and imports dipped by 2.3%. Fly ash exports via the Indo-Bangladesh protocol way done Kolkata larboard besides dropped by 15%-25% during the highest operation season. The bustling Benapole-Petrapole onshore ports astatine the India-Bangladesh border, liable for astir 30% of bilateral trade, present witnesser importantly little traffic. The reduced enactment has severely impacted border-dependent livelihoods. People-to-people connectivity has besides been impaired with the 3 railway services suspended since July 2024. Bus services and different nationalist transport stay unavailable, and backstage vehicles person been charging exorbitant rates to transverse the onshore border.
Under specified circumstances, New Delhi is recalibrating its connectivity dependence connected Bangladesh done diplomatic means.
Showcasing the Northeast’s geographic strength
In precocious March 2025, Mr. Yunus made a arguable connection connected India’s Northeast during his archetypal authorities sojourn to Beijing. Addressing the Chinese President Xi Jinping, helium remarked, “The 7 States of eastbound India, known arsenic the Seven Sisters, are a landlocked region. They person nary nonstop entree to the ocean. We are the lone guardians of the water for this full region. This opens up a immense opportunity. It could go an hold of the Chinese system — physique things, nutrient things, marketplace things, bring goods to China and export them to the remainder of the world.” Mr. Yunus’s connection reflected a disregard for India’s strategical sensitivities. It besides showed a deficiency of knowing astir Bangladesh’s geopolitical reality.
While India’s landlocked Northeast tin surely payment from a much convenient entree to the Bay of Bengal via Bangladesh’s ports, it tin inactive entree the oversea via the Kolkata Port successful West Bengal. Indeed, India has the longest coastline successful the Bay of Bengal and besides owns the operational rights to the Sittwe Port connected the Myanmar coastline. Consequently, the assertion that Dhaka is the “Guardian of the Ocean” overstated Bangladesh’s role. It overlooked the broader determination maritime geography, which is simply a collaborative abstraction for each the Bay littoral countries. Moreover, Bangladesh itself relies connected India’s Northeast for its transit commercialized to Nepal and Bhutan. New Delhi subsequently revoked the transhipment installation that allowed Bangladesh to export goods to 3rd countries via Indian onshore customs stations, ports, and airports.
Interestingly, though Mr. Yunus’s remark portrayed India’s Northeast arsenic a portion of strategical vulnerability, New Delhi did not revoke Dhaka’s transit commercialized rights done this territory. This has 2 diplomatic motivations; first, to marque the interim authorities realise the Northeast’s value, arsenic a captious hinterland and transit territory for Bangladesh’s ain 3rd state trade, particularly successful airy of the terminated transhipment facilities; and 2nd to showcase India’s committedness towards its bilateral ties with Nepal and Bhutan, and the improvement of the Bay of Bengal region, astatine a clip erstwhile its bilateral ties are strained with Bay littorals- Bangladesh and Myanmar. Cancelling transit facilities would person affected the landlocked Himalayan countries, which trust considerably connected Bangladesh’s larboard for overseas trade.
Alternative routes to link the Northeast with the Bay of Bengal
In adverse geopolitical conditions, seeking alternatives beyond contiguous neighbours becomes imperative. As ties stay strained with Dhaka, New Delhi’s determination to make the ‘Shillong-Silchar Corridor’ exemplifies specified strategical recalibration. On April 30, the Cabinet Committee connected Economic Affairs, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, approved a connection for the development, attraction and absorption of a 166.80 km greenfield high-speed corridor from Mawlyngkhung successful Meghalaya to Panchgram successful Assam. Beyond improving intra-Northeast connectivity, the corridor holds the strategical imaginable to nexus this landlocked portion to the Bay of Bengal via Myanmar. This imaginable allows New Delhi to circumvent Bangladesh and supply the Northeast with maritime entree for overseas commercialized and connectivity.
For truthful long, Bangladesh has been considered the astir convenient, if not inevitable, transit to nexus the Northeast with the Bay of Bengal, owed to its geographical presumption and the past of partition. India’s determination to make the Shillong–Silchar Corridor reflects New Delhi’s intent to trim its reliance connected Bangladesh, fixed the caller governmental volatility successful Dhaka that has raised concerns astir the stableness of its concern clime and the caller administration’s perceived insensitivity to India’s strategical imperatives. Simultaneously, it opens avenues for enhanced engagement with Myanmar done the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project, thereby reinforcing alternate connectivity routes to the Bay of Bengal. In doing so, it challenges the assertion made by Mr. Yunus regarding the Northeast’s dependence connected Bangladesh, portion advancing India’s efforts to deepen ties with Myanmar — a cardinal spouse successful its Act East strategy.
Questions for future
There is frankincense a important modulation from India and Bangladesh capitalising their geographic interdependence to foster connectivity, to New Delhi exploring alternate channels that prevarication beyond Dhaka to realise its connectivity aspirations. Political volition is cardinal to fostering cooperation. The inevitability of geography and being neighbouring countries does not foreshadow favourable bilateral ties. That is ever a diplomatic choice. As India and Bangladesh meander into a caller scenery of bilateralism, immoderate questions request attention. Will India and Bangladesh beryllium capable to beforehand a unchangeable neighbourhood without information of each other’s strategical sensitivities? How volition the strain successful ties with Bangladesh impact India’s overseas argumentation and determination organisations specified arsenic BIMSTEC and SAARC? Lastly, however acold tin an interim government, chiefly tasked to guarantee a creaseless modulation to an elected administration, prosecute strategical shifts that interaction long-standing bilateral ties?
Sohini Bose is an Associate Fellow astatine Observer Research Foundation (ORF)
