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On November 28, the Union Statistics and Programme Implementation Ministry reported that India’s existent GDP grew 8.2% and the nominal GDP 8.7% successful the 2nd 4th of the fiscal twelvemonth 2025-26 — the strongest people successful six quarters. Just 2 days earlier, the IMF, successful its information adequacy assessment, had fixed India’s nationalist accounts a “C” people — the 2nd lowest successful its four-tier system— noting “shortcomings that somewhat hamper surveillance”, adjacent arsenic the wide macro information acceptable earned a “B”. The timing underscores a troubling irony.
India erstwhile acceptable standards successful authoritative statistics. Under P.C. Mahalanobis, the National Sample Survey and a robust strategy of nationalist accounts turned a mediocre postcolonial authorities into a exemplary for the processing world. Today, that bequest is fraying. The uninterrupted decennial Census bid (since 1881), which underpins astir sampling frames, has been broken. The authoritative depletion expenditure survey, the backbone of poorness and inequality statistic and user terms scale (CPI) reweighting, was past released successful 2011-12. The 2017-18 circular was scrapped aft leaked results suggested a autumn successful existent consumption, with the authorities citing “data quality” problems. In that sense, the IMF’s “C” people distils respective long-running concerns.
First, the existent GDP bid inactive uses 2011-12 arsenic its basal twelvemonth — a benchmark that volition beryllium 14 years retired of day by the clip a caller bid with 2022-23 arsenic basal is rolled retired successful February 2026. Real growth, obtained by deflating nominal aggregates, uses terms indices derived from depletion and accumulation patterns that nary longer accurately bespeak the economy’s structure. Both the user and wholesale terms baskets, which should beryllium refreshed astir each 5 years, are agelong overdue for revision.
Moreover, the constrictive spread betwixt nominal and existent GDP successful the latest quarter, hardly fractional a percent point, is besides telling. When deflators are based connected outdated expenditure weights, they are prone to understating effectual ostentation and overstating existent growth. Point estimates of 8%-plus maturation should, therefore, beryllium treated arsenic lone indicative.
Second, the existent terms architecture is peculiarly ill-suited to a services-led economy. Services present relationship for astir 55% of the gross worth added (GVA). Yet India inactive relies heavy connected the wholesale terms scale (WPI), which omits astir services, for deflating output. The IMF has been explicit that the lack of a broad shaper terms scale (PPI) and “excessive usage of azygous deflation” are cardinal reasons for the “C” grade.
Third, the attraction of the informal system successful nationalist statistic is simply a superior weakness. The informal assemblage contributes astir 45% of the GDP, but is not measured annually from the crushed up. Instead, statisticians hole the formal-informal narration successful the basal twelvemonth and past extrapolate informal enactment from formal-sector indicators specified arsenic firm filings oregon GST data. That shortcut mightiness enactment successful a unchangeable environment, but it breaks down erstwhile shocks, specified arsenic demonetisation, GST, and the pandemic, deed small, cash-dependent firms overmuch harder than listed companies. Proxying kirana stores, tiny workshops, and petty services with ample firms makes aggregate GDP look healthier precisely erstwhile vulnerability is greatest.
Fourth, the quarterly GDP numbers are hard to construe successful their existent form. In an system with pronounced monsoon and festival cycles, earthy quarter-on-quarter changes accidental small astir the underlying trajectory. Most precocious statistical systems people seasonally adjusted bid to portion retired predictable intra-year patterns and place genuine turning points. India does not, leaving investors and policymakers to work the rhythm disconnected unadjusted GDP, wherever a festival 4th and a genuine upswing are virtually indistinguishable.
Reform agenda
To beryllium fair, India is moving connected the betterment agenda. A caller GDP bid with 2022-23 arsenic the base, an updated CPI with 2024 weights, and a revised IIP are each slated for merchandise successful aboriginal 2026, with greater usage of GST returns, firm filings, integer payments, and caller depletion and endeavor survey data. If these revisions are implemented rigorously and past institutionalised arsenic a regular cycle, India’s statistical methods volition travel overmuch person to planetary champion practice.
Three reforms are essential. First, statistic indispensable beryllium treated arsenic economical infrastructure, not an administrative by-product. The National Statistical Commission (NSC) should beryllium fixed a steadfast statutory basis, its ain budget, information of tenure for members, and a wide mandate to people information without governmental clearance, with protections for its Chair analogous to those of the RBI Governor. India was an aboriginal protagonist of the UN’s Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics. It present needs to constitute those principles into home instrumentality alternatively than simply endorsing them successful planetary forums.
Second, a binding information calendar is overdue. The Census, consumption, labour-force and endeavor surveys should person legislated periodicity and statutory deadlines for release, with deviations explained to Parliament. Anonymised microdata should beryllium routinely disposable to researchers with tenable lags to alteration autarkic “shadow” estimates that supply outer validation, arsenic investors and multilaterals often demand.
Third, arsenic integer sources multiply, the hazard grows that selective high-frequency indicators (GST collections, toll data, UPI volumes) volition substitute for, alternatively than complement, a coherent system. The integration of integer information into nationalist accounts indispensable beryllium transparent and replicable; otherwise, dashboards volition multiply, but doubts volition persist.
For planetary investors, anemic and unreliable information mean mispriced risk; for policymakers, they mean misjudged slack, misplaced priorities and a macro stance looser than what fundamentals warrant. If inclination maturation is overstated and poorness undercounted, occupation instauration looks little urgent than it is, and the lawsuit for information nets and basal nationalist goods appears weaker than it should. India’s economical emergence is real, but its statistical institutions person not kept pace. If the coming overhaul succeeds successful gathering an independent, modern and transparent system, what volition yet substance is not IMF’s people card, but whether an 8.2% people commands confidence, not scepticism.
Sankalpa Bhattacharjee and Amarendu Nandy are module members successful the economics and nationalist argumentation country astatine the Indian Institute of Management, Ranchi; views expressed are personal.
