3 months ago
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Seventy-year-old Abu Bakkar has ne'er formed his ballot for immoderate awesome different than the Awami League (AL)’s “Boat”. A life-long protagonist of the party, helium ne'er imagined a nationalist predetermination without it. Yet connected February 12, Bangladesh volition spell to the polls with the Awami League (AL) barred from contesting, following a crackdown aft the mass uprising that ousted enactment president and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and ended the party’s 15-year rule.
“I person ne'er formed my ballot for immoderate awesome different than the AL’s Boat successful my lifetime,” helium said. “The enactment is barred from this election, but I inactive mean to vote. I don’t cognize if I volition beryllium capable to ballot successful the adjacent election, arsenic I americium already old.”
Mr. Bakkar declined to accidental which enactment oregon campaigner helium would ballot for, though helium said respective candidates had approached him seeking support. “I person not yet decided, but I volition spell and formed my vote,” helium said.
Following the melodramatic autumn of the Awami League, astir of its elder leaders person either fled the state oregon stay successful jail. With the enactment barred from the election, its accepted ballot slope has been near politically adrift. In 2001, the AL won its lowest-ever tally of 62 seats successful the 300-member parliament, contempt securing much than 2 crore votes, erstwhile the electorate stood astatine conscionable implicit 7 crore. In the wide regarded escaped and just 2008 election, the enactment won astir 3.5 crore votes arsenic portion of the Grand Alliance, with conscionable implicit 8 crore registered voters. Bangladesh’s existent elector basal exceeds 12.7 crore.
With the Awami League retired of the fray, a ample conception of its erstwhile supporters remains undecided—a origin that could beryllium decisive arsenic former allies Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami contention against each other.
Sources wrong the Awami League said the enactment remains uncertain astir its predetermination strategy. Although it announced a boycott, determination has been small mobilisation connected the ground. Grassroots activists said the lack of wide instructions has near supporters confused astir whether the enactment wants the predetermination to proceed and powerfulness to transportation from the interim government, which they impeach of carrying retired a harsh crackdown implicit the past 18 months.
A person of the Bangladesh Chhatra League, the pupil helping of Awami League, and vice-president of a assemblage unit, who requested anonymity citing fearfulness of reprisal and has 7 cases filed against him, told The Hindu from an African state wherever helium has taken refuge that helium received nary instructions to discourage voting.
“I did not ballot by postal ballot portion abroad,” helium said. “But I besides did not archer my household members thing astir participating successful the election. I did not intervene due to the fact that my enactment did not instruct america to obstruct the polls.”
A nationwide survey conducted jointly by the Communication and Research Foundation and Bangladesh Election and Public Opinion Studies recovered that much than 90% of voters mean to ballot successful the upcoming election, portion astir 8% stay undecided. Among those who antecedently voted for the Awami League, 48.2% said they would present ballot for the BNP, and 29.9% favoured Jamaat-e-Islami.
Political analysts accidental the Awami League presently lacks the organisational spot to forestall the election. Most elder leaders are either jailed oregon successful exile, portion those remaining look aggregate cases and are disorganised. Analysts besides constituent to the party’s nonaccomplishment of motivation authorization pursuing the sidesplitting of protesters during the July 2024 uprising. However, they enactment that the enactment retains important grassroots support, which could inactive power the outcome.
According to Transparency International Bangladesh (TIB), 1,785 cases had been filed nationwide against AL activists and supporters arsenic of November 19, 2025. Sheikh Hasina has been named arsenic an accused successful 663 cases, including 453 execution cases. Chargesheets person been submitted successful 106 cases, including 31 execution cases, portion astatine slightest 128 individuals, including erstwhile Ministers and MPs, person been arrested. In addition, 761 cases person been filed against constabulary personnel, naming 1,168 officers arsenic accused.
The Awami League has agelong demanded the dissolution of the interim authorities and elections nether a neutral, all-party administration. With polling lone 3 days away, Sheikh Hasina reiterated her telephone for a boycott, echoed by 5 Awami League–aligned nonrecreational organisations. However, nary large-scale nationalist mobilisation successful favour of the boycott oregon obstruction has been visible.
AFM Bahauddin Nasim, associated wide caput of the Awami League, told The Hindu connected Sunday (February 8, 2026) that the enactment has boycotted the predetermination and instructed its supporters not to vote. He claimed that not lone enactment supporters but besides wide voters would cull what helium described arsenic a “motivated and non-inclusive” election.
Asked whether the enactment had instructed activists to obstruct polling connected February 12, helium said the Awami League does not judge successful violence. He alleged that BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami activists were pressuring Awami League supporters to be polling centres. “These elections volition not beryllium accepted by the radical oregon the planetary community,” helium said.
Shahadat Shadhin, a governmental expert and probe student astatine South Asian University, told The Hindu that the lack of Awami League leaders from nationalist beingness has weakened the party’s power implicit its supporters.
“Even if the Awami League boycotts the election, galore of its supporters volition inactive vote,” helium said. He said that their votes are apt to beryllium divided chiefly betwixt the BNP and Jamaat. Many citizens expect an elected authorities to stabilise Bangladesh’s antiauthoritarian trajectory. For the Awami League too, governmental engagement whitethorn beryllium much feasible with an elected authorities than with a purely interim arrangement.”
