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A study by planetary subject and argumentation institute Climate Analytics has warned that Asia’s expansive plans for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) could pb to astir 25 cardinal tonnes of further greenhouse state emissions by 2050, threatening the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C clime people and locking the portion into costly and uncompetitive fossil substance pathways.
Released connected Monday (October 6, 2025), up of the Japan CCS Summit connected October 15-16, the report, titled The planetary clime risks of Asia’s expansive c seizure and retention plans, evaluated CCS strategies crossed 9 large economies - China, India, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Australia - which unneurotic relationship for implicit fractional of planetary fossil substance usage and greenhouse state emissions.
Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, said, “Asia is astatine a crossroads, portion countries haven’t yet gone afloat down the CCS path, galore are tailoring policies to support fossil fuels. This is simply a precise risky strategy, not lone for the Paris Agreement, but for these economies themselves.”
The study identifies 2 large risks: an “underperforming high-CCS” pathway, wherever CCS is deployed but fails to conscionable expected seizure rates, and an “unachieved high-CCS” pathway, wherever CCS is promoted but not realised, diverting resources from proven zero-emission technologies. In either scenario, the portion could emit an further 24.9 gigatonnes of CO₂-equivalent by 2050 - much than the cumulative fossil substance emissions of South Korea and Australia combined.
James Bowen, pb writer of the report, said, “We find a beardown anticipation that Asian countries could summation their enactment for CCS done to 2050, risking a important lock-in of unabated fossil fuels and stranded plus costs, fto unsocial risks to the satellite achieving the Paris Agreement 1.5°C warming limit.”
India’s emerging relation successful the CCS debate
India, 1 of Asia’s largest emitters alongside China and Japan, is processing a nationalist CCS ngo aimed astatine scaling up deployment. The study noted, however, that India’s CCS beingness remains minimal, with nary important operational projects oregon transport and retention infrastructure. India is mostly disconnected from the Japan–South Korea–Southeast Asia–Australia CCS nexus.
Despite this, India’s concern maturation trajectory makes it a captious subordinate successful the CCS debate. The state is already the second-largest alloy user globally, with request projected to turn 6.3% annually betwixt 2025 and 2030. Cement depletion successful India and South Asia could emergence by implicit 40% during 2025–2035. These sectors are considered “hard-to-abate” and imaginable candidates for CCS, though the study cautions that emerging zero-emission technologies whitethorn connection much cost-effective solutions.
India’s mostly home fossil substance usage gives it flexibility to displacement toward renewables without outer marketplace pressures. The study highlights India’s advancement successful deploying renewables, electrical vehicles, and greenish hydrogen, suggesting the state could debar CCS dependence if it prioritises cleanable vigor and concern innovation.
However, the economical risks stay significant. The study estimates that India would necessitate astir $4.3 cardinal successful authorities enactment to alteration CCS adoption - raising questions astir whether specified concern would beryllium amended directed toward scalable, low-cost alternatives.
CCS, a lifeline for fossil fuels
Despite being marketed arsenic a clime solution, CCS has consistently underperformed. Capture rates often hover astir 50%, acold beneath the 95% needed for meaningful abatement. Moreover, 80% of existent CCS projects usage captured CO₂ for enhanced lipid betterment (EOR), extending fossil substance extraction.
The study finds that CCS successful the powerfulness assemblage could effect successful energy costs up to doubly that of renewables backed by storage, making it economically unviable successful astir Asian markets.
Sectoral misalignment and strategical motives
Most CCS projects successful Asia people sectors with viable zero-emission alternatives, specified arsenic earthy gas, LNG processing, and hydrogen production. Hard-to-abate sectors similar cement and alloy person received minimal CCS investment.
Governments successful Japan, South Korea, and Australia are among the astir progressive CCS proponents, offering fiscal and regulatory enactment to prolong fossil substance production. Southeast Asian nations, including Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, are positioning themselves arsenic CO₂ retention hubs, often successful concern with lipid and state companies. Singapore is processing a determination CCS hub with ExxonMobil and Shell, reinforcing its relation arsenic a fossil substance transit centre.
Alternatives are cheaper
The study urges Asian governments to prosecute a “deliberate low-CCS pathway,” prioritising renewables, electrification, and vigor efficiency. These technologies are already much cost-effective than fossil fuels adjacent without CCS.
In 2023, the planetary mean outgo of star and upwind powerfulness was importantly little than fossil fuel-based electricity. Countries similar China, India, and Vietnam person already seen renewables outcompete fossil fuels successful cost. A high-CCS pathway could outgo $30 trillion much globally than a low-CCS pathway by 2050.
Even successful traditionally hard-to-decarbonise sectors specified arsenic steel, cement, and fertilisers, zero-emission alternatives are emerging. Green hydrogen-based steelmaking, low-carbon cement technologies, and renewable ammonia accumulation connection viable pathways without reliance connected CCS.
The study emphasises that CCS should beryllium treated arsenic a past resort, not a frontline clime solution, and calls connected Asian governments, including India, to prioritise fossil substance phaseout and put successful cleanable technologies.
