2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly election will be a close battle, says P. Chidambaram

In 2006, you had hailed the DMK manifesto arsenic the “hero of the elections”. Can I accidental this clip you are the leader of the DMK-Congress alliance, because, it looks, but for your intervention, the 2 parties could person drifted?

I americium acrophobic no, my relation is exaggerated. The Congress president asked maine to conscionable the DMK president and Chief Minister [M.K. Stalin] and effort to necktie up the escaped ends. I met him once. And past they agreed precocious successful the evening.

Congress person Rahul Gandhi shared a brotherly enslaved with Mr. Stalin. Yet strains emerged during the confederation talks. What went wrong?

I would not property it to Mr. Rahul Gandhi. There were immoderate strains successful the aboriginal rounds of talks that could person been avoided. But that is each down us. We person an amicable statement and we volition contention the elections together. I deliberation the relation of each one, request not beryllium discussed now.

Some of the older allies of the Secular Progressive Alliance are unhappy implicit the spot allocation, erstwhile the Congress tally has accrued and DMDK got 10 seats. Will this impact crushed level coordination? Shouldn’t Mr. Stalin person been little rigid with loyal allies?

There is ever immoderate dissatisfaction each round. In a marriage, the bride broadside and the bride groom broadside volition person ever immoderate dissatisfaction. As agelong arsenic determination is wide restitution and immoderate points of dissatisfaction, it means that the confederation has been negotiated correctly. I deliberation the summation of caller parties to the confederation imposed limitations connected the DMK and its leader. And the admitted aforesaid confessed maturation of each enactment increases their aspirations. Their aspirations and limitations person to find a gathering point. [As acold as] the Congress is concerned, we recovered a gathering constituent astatine 28 and I deliberation different leaders person besides recovered gathering points and I saw statements by Communist Party of India, Communist Party of India (Marxist). They person nary aft lawsuit dissatisfaction.

But erstwhile leaders publically explicit dissatisfaction, the cadres could get impacted...

No, it won’t impact the grassroot coordination astatine each due to the fact that the cadres of each parties person [in a] agreed dependable told maine and told others that we should reason the negotiations rapidly and tin commencement the campaign. In fact, they are waiting for the run to start. So the cadres are not divided astatine all.

In my question past week and the twelvemonth earlier that I person met DMK, Congress, and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi workers. They each said, delight reason the negotiations rapidly truthful that we tin commencement the work. So the cadres person been acceptable for the past 3 months. Leaders whitethorn person had immoderate differences, but each that has been ironed out.

Mr. Stalin is framing this elections arsenic a combat betwixt Tamil Nadu and New Delhi. Do you endorse this? And would specified a communicative enactment successful an Assembly election?

That’s wholly correct. You see, the puppet is the AIADMK, the puppeteer is the Bharatiya Janata Party. All the remainder don’t count. Unfortunately, successful an Assembly election, alternatively of calling the shots, the AIADMK has ceded the crushed and the enactment and the absorption to the BJP.

Now, the BJP is determined to walk respective bills which person caused large dissatisfaction passim the country. The IBC Amendment Bill, FCRA Amendment Bill, CAPF Amendment Bill. All these person a large interaction connected the full country. When we campaign, we volition exposure the superior consequences of these bills. But the AIADMK doesn’t accidental a connection successful Parliament and outside. Which means it is going on with everything that the BJP is doing. The AIADMK seems to beryllium nether unit oregon compulsion to toed the line.

So it is not a combat betwixt the INDIA bloc and the AIADMK bloc. It’s truly a combat betwixt the Secular Progressive Alliance and the BJP. You volition find that the main issues successful this predetermination are the ways successful which BJP is injecting, imposing its Hindutva majoritarian docket connected the radical of India, particularly Tamil Nadu.

But AIADMK person Edappadi K. Palaniswami is asserting helium is the brag of the NDA successful Tamil Nadu. He appeared to beryllium successful bid successful allotment of seats and constituencies to allies...

He himself went to Delhi to conscionable the BJP enactment and seal the deal.

So Mr. Palaniswami is not successful command?

He is successful bid of the AIADMK, but helium is not successful bid of the election. He is not successful bid of the strategy, is not successful bid of the issues that volition beryllium discussed successful the election. You hold until the issues unfold. He volition look up to the BJP to support those issues. What is his presumption connected the IBC Amendment Bill oregon FCRA Amendment Bill?

With the introduction of histrion Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam arsenic a perchance beardown disruptor, immoderate are not ruling retired the likelihood of a hung Assembly. Do you agree? I americium asking due to the fact that successful the 2006 elections, erstwhile M. Karunanidhi and J. Jayalalithaa were around, the introduction of Vijayakanth’s Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam had reduced the triumph numbers of the DMK to beneath 100.

See, Mr. Vijay is not Mr. MGR oregon Mr. Vijayakanth. He is simply a fashionable histrion but his instrumentality nine whitethorn not person to voters. He volition get votes, but volition helium get seats? I person spoken to hundreds of enactment workers. The azygous sentiment is Mr. Vijay whitethorn get astir 7 to 8% votes. One oregon 2 radical accidental it whitethorn spell up to 12%.

Now arsenic the run progresses and arsenic the predetermination day nears, this 12% has nary mode of increasing. I volition archer you why. It’s elemental communal sense. If I person 3 candidates, DMK, AIADMK oregon Congress, a BJP, I volition realise arsenic a elector precise aboriginal that Mr. Vijay can’t win. In a 3 cornered contest, you indispensable person astatine slightest 37% to get seats. In a 4 cornered contest, possibly 32% is sufficient. In a nonstop contest, you indispensable person astatine slightest 43 to 45% to win. But Mr. Vijay’s enactment is good beneath the threshold. He won’t triumph seats. He whitethorn triumph if helium contests successful 1 constituency, but the radical volition commencement talking “he’s a losing candidate.” And losing candidates don’t instrumentality to the constituency. It is the fig of seats Mr. Vijay wins which volition pb to a hung Assembly. But if helium wins zero to 3 seats, it won’t marque a difference.

Wouldn’t helium spoil the triumph prospects of DMK and AIADMK?

No, the votes volition beryllium broadly divided into the AIADMK confederation and the DMK alliance. I americium assured the DMK bloc volition get a majority.

Mr. Stalin and Mr. Palaniswami person ruled retired sharing powerfulness with allies. Is this basal right, particularly erstwhile they some request allies to triumph elections and they had astatine antithetic points shared powerfulness astatine the Centre?

It’s premature to speech astir sharing power. The DMK and the AIADMK person reiterated their known positions. Other parties person stated their known positions that “we would similar sharing of power”. So some sides person not said thing caller oregon revolutionary. They person stated, they person iterated, their known positions and aft the elections, things volition happen.

But their statement is the radical of Tamil Nadu volition not judge a conjugation agreement. Do you agree?

I don’t hold with the wide proposition that the radical of Tamil Nadu volition ne'er hold to a conjugation government. If it becomes necessary, since the radical privation a government, they don’t privation different predetermination successful 2 months, they volition judge the reality. I don’t deliberation these wide statements are existent for each time. Maybe this predetermination it whitethorn beryllium true. But not for each time. How tin I foretell what volition hap 20 years later?

Do you foresee the anticipation of conjugation authorities successful Tamil Nadu successful the adjacent future?

See, arsenic agelong arsenic determination are 2 large parties, the chances of a conjugation authorities are low. It is lone erstwhile a 3rd enactment becomes astir adjacent to the archetypal 2 parties, 3 beardown parties, past determination is simply a anticipation of a conjugation election. I americium talking normative, arsenic a rule, not with peculiar notation to Tamil Nadu. Maharashtra for example, determination were 4 parties and 4 parties. So needfully Mr. Devendra Fadnavis has to person a coalition. But present astatine the moment, determination are lone 2 ascendant parties and the Congress is the third, but a small behind.

The Opposition’s main accusation against the DMK authorities is that instrumentality and bid has deteriorated, women information is simply a large concern, and availability of drugs is connected the rise. Your views...

This has immoderate constituent of truth. But this is simply a nationwide problem. I work the North Indian papers successful Delhi everyday. Two pages are lone astir crime, burglary, intersexual violence, roadworthy rage. The cause problem, the intersexual violence, sex violence, is each implicit India. If you speech astir it successful wide terms, it volition look that Tamil Nadu is the worst. That’s not correct. You person to instrumentality the NCRB information and you volition person to spot authorities by state. But that does not instrumentality distant from the information that whichever authorities is formed successful Tamil Nadu indispensable power the cause menace, indispensable sensitise young men and boys that sex unit is the worst benignant of unit and sensitise the constabulary and bid them to beryllium much effectual successful controlling instrumentality and order. I person noticed successful the CAPF the unit are periodically withdrawn from work and sent to the battalion office for grooming and remainder and recuperation. I mean to suggest to the adjacent government, I anticipation the DMK government, that the the constabulary unit indispensable beryllium withdrawn for 1 period successful a twelvemonth and sent to Battalion office for rest, recuperation and training. Which means you volition person to enlistee 1 twelfth much constabulary force, but that tin beryllium recruited.

How would you complaint Mr. Stalin’s administration?

You see, you spell by economical metrics, we are the fastest increasing authorities successful India. Number two, determination is simply a bumper crop, which means they person paid attraction to agriculture, irrigation, water, fertiliser, electricity. It has paid dividends. Third, we person monolithic extracurricular outer investment, FDI arsenic good arsenic from different states. See, I person got renovation and repair enactment successful my house. Every idiosyncratic is from UP, Bihar and Jharkhand. Why are Tamil young men not coming for operation work? I americium not saying determination is nary unemployment but they person amended paying jobs and jobs which springiness them much dignity. I deliberation our acquisition strategy has improved considerably.

Election manifestos are progressively being dominated by promises of payment benefits and nonstop currency transfer. As a erstwhile Union Finance Minister, don’t you deliberation these are fiscally imprudent measures against the backdrop of expanding indebtedness burden?

See, the indebtedness load is exaggerated. The indebtedness load is applicable lone if you can’t concern the debt. The nationalist indebtedness increases twelvemonth aft year. But if the GDP and the GSDP increases and the revenues increase, your state’s ain income increases and you are capable to concern the debt, that’s okay. You indispensable look astatine the fiscal shortage arsenic a proportionality of the GSDP. Tamil Nadu compares favourably with each different state.

On freebies, I person a philosophy. I judge successful cosmopolitan basal income (UBI). You can’t archer the mediocre radical you hold for the adjacent generation, your grandchildren volition beryllium better. Now you tin determine what proportionality of the state’s income indispensable beryllium fixed arsenic UBI. It tin beryllium divided into antithetic heads. Free autobus question has brought ample externalities. Economists volition cognize that a societal benefit, which has economical externalities is good. The escaped meal strategy excessively is portion of UBI. I deliberation it’s manageable, it’s viable.

They accidental the existent leader successful an predetermination is the currency delivered astatine the doorsteps of voters...

See, I person contested and won 7 elections. I person ne'er fixed wealth to voters. In fact, successful the past parliamentary predetermination nary enactment successful Sivaganga gave wealth to the voters. Giving wealth to the voters doesn’t determine an election. If a elector takes money, helium takes it from some sides and past helium volition workout his choice. It is similar the aged saying, “A justice took bribe from some sides and decided fairly.” But wealth indispensable beryllium fixed to get the enactment workers moving.

But elder politicians accidental “we don’t privation to contention successful elections due to the fact that it has go precise expensive”....

That is true. The elections person go expensive. The unrealistic people of ceilings fixed by the Election Commission of India is simply a joke. EC knows cipher adheres to the ceiling. But past determination are ways successful which we tin legally circumvent the ceiling. If the enactment spends, determination is nary ceiling.

What’s your prediction for the Tamil Nadu election?

It volition beryllium a adjacent predetermination due to the fact that the parties are arrayed successful 2 beardown fronts. The introduction of the BJP nether Mr. Modi [Prime Minister] and Mr. Shah [Home Minister] has injected a definite constituent which I can’t picture openly. But they volition usage each device, each maneuver to triumph the election, to power the predetermination and to triumph it if possible. It volition beryllium a adjacent battle. I person warned my enactment men. It volition beryllium adjacent battle, but we volition win. It volition not beryllium a wholly 1 sided conflict similar the 2024 parliamentary action. The AIADMK mislaid the deposit successful 7 seats. That’s unheard of for the AIADMK.

The AIADMK workers realise they person got a upland to climb. The DMK workers realise they are connected the apical of the upland and they should not let them to beryllium dragged down. The Congress is assured wherever it is strong. But I deliberation the eventual effect volition beryllium that the DMK confederation volition person a comfy bulk and the DMK volition signifier the government.